Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm pretty sure today's forecast high was like 29°, sitting here a little after 2 and it's still in the low 20s( 21°).. WRT the European which I actually haven't looked at yet, I always assumed it was better with southern stream activity compared to the northern stream, I could be wrong though lol Yes it’s only 26 here in Williamsville right now and forecast was 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 BUF is +7.2 for January so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Such a good pattern, lets hope GFS is right Euro showing it but further south and not nearly as cold. We want the GFS but even a blend would bring a bunch of chances of snow to our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 About the most we could ask for in peak climo, nice -EPO developing at the end there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: After I weaned off the Xanax (over 6mos.) the 27 y.o. Dr prescribed me, it was just time....every symptom slowly, went away...Mornings were the worse, afternoons were where I had good "windows". During the worst times, I was lucky to get 4hrs. sleep/night...often, I would just come close to sleeping, and then BAM, my brain just suddenly "zapped me" back awake..ie, constant, nonstop hypnic jerks. Also, when sitting, my pulse would be a fairly normal 60-70bpm....but upon standing, it would jump to 125-150bpm!!! And the Dr was trying to tell me it was anxiety! Really!!? So I searched the web (I know, taboo) and then it all made since when I read up on Dysautonomia, which, coincidently, can arise after viral infections....often messing with the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems. My body was definitely not constricting blood vessels upon standing properly, (which is a normal response to rising, as otherwise one would pass out due to gravitational pull on blood). So my heart tried to compensate by beating faster to keep the blood into my brain. But, again, It's slowly got better over a period of 3 to 5 months, After about 10 months of hell! Benzos screwed me too. I’ve been off for 12 months and still have tinnitus due to them. I was in hardcore withdrawal for 5 days- like nothing I’d ever felt before. It’s so odd that doctors don’t understand the harm they cause. The gaba system is best left alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yeah, I tapered real slow.... They are nothing to mess with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Kinda fits my earlier post about the European and northern stream/LES.. I guess it could be right and it's not a big event but it's the only global with no LES Wednesday.. Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will eventually lead to dry weather later Tuesday into Tuesday night. GFS and Canadian indicate that could more of a lake response off east of both lakes for Wednesday as another trough drops across with just enough cold in place. Though ECMWF is somewhat muted with that idea, went for low chance pops east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Lake effect will diminish on Wednesday night as warm air advection begins to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Obviously can't predict snowfall from the Globals but it could be 1-3/2-4 type deal if temps cooperate as it stands now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Beginning with Thursday, a complex low pressure developing somewhere in the vicinity of the upper Great Lakes will steam off towards the Hudson Bay with its cold front plowing eastward towards Western NY. Most precip from the approaching system will likely not arrive until Thursday night and then continue into Friday. Have nudged several variables up (wind, temps, and POP) over the blended guidance with this update to reflect the system approaching and then entering the Lower Lakes on Friday. After Friday, a progressive pattern develops which sends the deep mid-level trough over the region quickly off to the east. Ridging building in aloft and at the surface then takes over for Saturday into Saturday night. Any left over snow showers or residual lake snows will more than likely diminish during the day Saturday and end Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Beginning with Thursday, a complex low pressure developing somewhere in the vicinity of the upper Great Lakes will steam off towards the Hudson Bay with its cold front plowing eastward towards Western NY. Most precip from the approaching system will likely not arrive until Thursday night and then continue into Friday. Have nudged several variables up (wind, temps, and POP) over the blended guidance with this update to reflect the system approaching and then entering the Lower Lakes on Friday. After Friday, a progressive pattern develops which sends the deep mid-level trough over the region quickly off to the east. Ridging building in aloft and at the surface then takes over for Saturday into Saturday night. Any left over snow showers or residual lake snows will more than likely diminish during the day Saturday and end Saturday night. If we get inside 2-3 days and it looks like potential still exists I may consider chasing this. I don’t know much about LES synoptic setups but what kind of potential you guys think looking at for late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: If we get inside 2-3 days and it looks like potential still exists I may consider chasing this. I don’t know much about LES synoptic setups but what kind of potential you guys think looking at for late next week? It’s a little muddled at this time. I’m not the expert here that’s BuffaloWeather and he’s a bit under the weather at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Bing not much better.....why so vague? Is everyone in a complete funk? The long term period continues to look quiet and the slight warming trend continues through most of next week. A surface low develops in the southeastern US that moves out to sea Tuesday as a blocking high prevents the low from moving into our general area. There does remain some uncertainty with this system with timing and location, but models continue to keep the system off the coast for now. A couple of shortwaves move through Wednesday bringing another slight chance for lake effect snow showers in our far northern areas. A ridge builds in briefly early Thursday to dry things out. During this time a deep trough begins to dig into the central US. Chances of precipitation remain in place during late next week as this system sweeps across the eastern half of the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: It’s a little muddled at this time. I’m not the expert here that’s BuffaloWeather and he’s a bit under the weather at this time. Thanks, appreciate it, best wishes! I live in Philadelphia so to make that drive I’d probably only consider it if there was a % shot at 15+. Like i said I have no clue what to look for when it comes to H5 or anything just the basics. So hopefully it looks good as we get closer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Looks like I missed a great conversation through the day today. I have battled diagnosed Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (huge anxiety issues included) my entire life. Prozac..then Paxil...now Celexa, which I think has been the best for me. I avoid caffeine as much as possible, as well as many other foods that are loaded with brain-altering chemicals. The amount of junk we put in our bodies....only makes things worse. Totally understand the battle with anxiety .In fact, I was just talking to a colleague today about how debilitating anxiety can be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Soon many rains come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Wasn’t it just yesterday it looked like a great period was soon to be upon us? This freaking winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 What did I miss, rain? Is this a sick attempt at humor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Boys, for 14734th time like I said, winter is ALREADY CANCELLED so stop relying on LR models. They are worthless and PV will NOT come to the northeast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Geez150 said: What did I miss, rain? Is this a sick attempt at humor? I was wondering the same thing. There’s no rain in sight for close to 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, brentrich said: Boys, for 14734th time like I said, winter is ALREADY CANCELLED so stop relying on LR models. They are worthless and PV will NOT come to the northeast. I don't buy that. Not when so many are on board with the thought of it coming. Now I'm not saying to start cashing checks we haven't earned yet. As I could totally see NY getting skunked, but no way the NE as a whole doesn't see the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 We could see some rain ahead/during the CF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Nws has upper 30s with R/S for Friday.. Once colder air arrives LES will start but wind direction is obviously in question 7 days out.. Friday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%. With that being said I don't see many more rain storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I think it's going to be be the same thing...based on repeating patterns the past couple winters.... rain with the cold front, a little line of snow showers behind it...then dry, while Watertown and the Northern Tug get pummeled by LES on a SW wind. Seems to be the only flow that REALLY produces these days. I can already see the models heading in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Gfs completely different look for the CF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs completely different lol I was just going to post this Looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Cmc is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Another vort for the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another vort for the lakes Just a bunch of strung out clippers lacking moisture with zero southern stream influence. Terrible pattern. It's too progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Just a bunch of strung out clippers lacking moisture with zero southern stream influence. Terrible pattern. It's too progressive. A great pattern for upstate if it comes with cold air, the best one actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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