MJO812 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Geez150 said: Whatever gives upstate NY the least amount of snow will happen, that's my bet lol. But fingers crossed for some kind of action! Get ready for lots of snow if the models are right about bringing down brutally cold air . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Late next week into the weekend of Jan 16-17, signals are beginning to emerge that weather could turn more active with stronger cold frontal passage possible during that time along with a deeper trough aloft/colder conditions developing. Plenty of time to sort out those details, but something to keep an eye on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 hours ago, vortmax said: Think I see our first Mostly Sunny day potential this weeekend?? Tonight Scattered flurries before 1am, then scattered flurries after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 11 mph. Thursday A chance of flurries and freezing drizzle before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Thursday Night Cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 7 mph. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Sorry, the NWS has now changed Sat to "Partly Sunny"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Posted on local news station... And soon NC mountains...lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Guys, just be guarded when getting excited for the long term stuff. We’ve been through this a dozen times in the last two years. These products are pretty worthless in my estimation. Fun to watch tho! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 54 minutes ago, vortmax said: Sorry, the NWS has now changed Sat to "Partly Sunny"...lol I really need some sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I guess it's better than nothing east of Ontario..Weak/marginal LES followed by a weak clipper...Hopefully this is the start of a colder more active period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Gfs sped up the next CF some.. Quicker the better lol Obviously subject to change, many times.. Looks like the GFS has a wave forming on the front, we know how that usually works out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs sped up the next CF some.. Quicker the better lol Obviously subject to change, many times.. Not surprising with that 498 bubble incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hell of a LR LES event for the southern boys on the GFS, even though the surface low retrogrades almost into HB lol.. Jackpots Matt so shift that north by 50-100 miles.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 At least it's still showing a prolonged LES event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 So we watch a 280 hr LES event. Um ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: So we watch a 280 hr LES event. Um ok. Well is this a weather board,? Is anything going on right now? So no one should post on this board for the next 7-10 days..Case closed.. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: So we watch a 280 hr LES event. Um ok. We watch anything at this point for such a dismal winter so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 A nice Long duration event would be nice. Verbatim would give monroe county 10 to 24 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: A nice Long duration event would be nice. Verbatim would give monroe county 10 to 24 inches Multi-lake connection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: At least it's still showing a prolonged LES event.. Lock it in! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Lock it in! Winter in a Week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: We watch anything at this point for such a dismal winter so far... Hopefully we can look forward to the bills for the next 2 weeks. Maybe something will appear on the guidance by then but I am not optimistic about February either. No until I see the whites of the flakes will I buy it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 That lake effect on gfs would be 1 to 4 feet on south shore. Most ofcourse in wayne Cayuga county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 A weak trough crossing late Sunday into Sunday night could brings more cloud cover and the chance for some light lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario and Erie. Marginal temps aloft and limited moisture lead to nothing more than slight chances at this point. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As the trough axis crosses the area overnight Sunday night and high pressure builds in behind it, winds become more westerly and the chances for lake effect snow diminish through the day Monday. The North Country could hold on to slight chances for light lake effect a little longer as a small shortwave disturbance passing to the north helps cooler air stick aloft around into Monday evening. Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will give way for a dry day Tuesday. Another weak shortwave looks to move across the great lakes region during the day Wednesday, which may bring in some extra moisture and cooler 850mb temps to bring back chances for lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. Temperatures through the period should end up slightly above normal both for highs and lows. Late next week into the weekend of Jan 16-17, signals are beginning to emerge that weather could turn more active with stronger cold frontal passage possible during that time along with a deeper trough aloft/colder conditions developing. Plenty of time to sort out those details, but something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 12:39 PM, rochesterdave said: Too soon for pessimism but if the clippers all go north of the lakes as depicted on GFS, Rochester to Syracuse (but definitely Rochester) would be completely skunked. Given our luck this winter, I expect this will be the pattern! Lol Do you have a decent winter vehicle? We could caravan into some bands in the next few weeks if things continue to trend that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well is this a weather board,? Is anything going on right now? So no one should post on this board for the next 7-10 days..Case closed.. Tonight's 00Z GFS run for hr 288 is the most important one of our lives. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Do you have a decent winter vehicle? We could caravan into some bands in the next few weeks if things continue to trend that way. Toyota 4Runner. I’m in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Hell of a LR LES event for the southern boys on the GFS, even though the surface low retrogrades almost into HB lol.. Jackpots Matt so shift that north by 50-100 miles.. 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: At least it's still showing a prolonged LES event.. The thing that's HILARIOUS about this is that I JUST made plans last night with my parents to come down to their house in PA to celebrate Christmas (barring no COVID results)......for the days of..... SATURDAY, JAN 16TH and 17th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well is this a weather board,? Is anything going on right now? So no one should post on this board for the next 7-10 days..Case closed.. You're pretty low-key...so when you get feisty, it makes me chuckle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You're pretty low-key...so when you get feisty, it makes me chuckle. Wolfie will be even more feisty when the 252 hr GFS delivers the goods for us while he is scraping morning rime off his car windows in -10 degree conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Wolfie will be even more feisty when the 252 hr GFS delivers the goods for us while he is scraping morning rime off his car windows in -10 degree conditions. He and Freak scraping rime ice off their cars while we get plastered by snow. Lock. it. in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You're pretty low-key...so when you get feisty, it makes me chuckle. Right!?!? We’ve got so many great personalities up in here. Wolfie is like an adult in the room. Syrmax is the witty intellectual. King is the wise guy. Delta and BUF are the scientists. Freak is the angsty teen who knows as much as any met. Tim and Vort the dreamy eyed optimists. Ayuud only cares about LES. And I can think of at least 5 smart asses (me and you and Think included). Who am I missing? Easy going CNY! Who else?the easterners. The lurkers (96!). Actual meteorologist. Lol. No offense if I missed you, my brain is slow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Right!?!? We’ve got so many great personalities up in here. Wolfie is like an adult in the room. Syrmax is the witty intellectual. King is the wise guy. Delta and BUF are the scientists. Freak is the angsty teen who knows as much as any met. Tim and Vort the dreamy eyed optimists. Ayuud only cares about LES. And I can think of at least 5 smart asses (me and you and Think included). Who am I missing? Easy going CNY! Who else?the easterners. The lurkers (96!). Actual meteorologist. Lol. No offense if I missed you, my brain is slow. Yes, the Eastern NY wannabees who think we care how much snow they're getting..... Kidding, guys! In reality, I'm just bitter you all have a snowpack during this long waiting period. (So THIS is what it feels like when you watch all the LES hit western and central NY while you look at clouds and flurries.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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