BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 This is pretty bad for a 16 day ENS run in the middle of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Where did you get that information? GFS? I still don’t see the lake enhanced rain. The Mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is pretty bad for a 16 day ENS run in the middle of January Hey, that's half of what we've seen here in two months coming in 15 days. I'd call that progress. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, WNash said: Obviously we get thundersnow on rare occasions in the northern third of the metro, but the lake influence promotes stability and minimizes convection from late winter until late summer, diminishing the temperature gradients that allow charge to build up (I hope I am explaining lightning correctly). The radar image of a convective complex collapsing as it reaches Buffalo is familiar to all of us. We get occasionally spring and summer thunderstorms, but a fraction of the number of storms outside of the lake plain. I’m looking forward to seeing the lightning data from the Tempest — I’m thinking the number of thunderstorms will jump dramatically in August and September, dropping back to near zero by mid February. In any case, I felt pretty comfortable procrastinating the work needed to ground the mast until the first part of the summer, but after last night, maybe not. I’m going to get the ground wire connected this week and sink the rod when the soil lets me. We had some fantastic thunderstorms over our last summer. One of which provided 1-2 hours of lighting and thunder as it came over our area. Still have to put that video together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Actually the 18z looks better for Binghamton and eastern finger lakes. It did move NW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Would probably be rain or a mix anyway thanks to the low in the lakes .Winds out of the south.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Looking on the positive side...looks dry for the next 7-14 days. I for one am sick of mid-winter rainstorms. BUF probably won’t make it to 5” of snow before mid January but at least it shouldn’t be a mud fest for the next couple weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 hours ago, WNash said: Obviously we get thundersnow on rare occasions in the northern third of the metro, but the lake influence promotes stability and minimizes convection from late winter until late summer, diminishing the temperature gradients that allow charge to build up (I hope I am explaining lightning correctly). The radar image of a convective complex collapsing as it reaches Buffalo is familiar to all of us. We get occasionally spring and summer thunderstorms, but a fraction of the number of storms outside of the lake plain. I’m looking forward to seeing the lightning data from the Tempest — I’m thinking the number of thunderstorms will jump dramatically in August and September, dropping back to near zero by mid February. In any case, I felt pretty comfortable procrastinating the work needed to ground the mast until the first part of the summer, but after last night, maybe not. I’m going to get the ground wire connected this week and sink the rod when the soil lets me. I agree with this. My point was that from a safety standpoint, I wouldnt count out lightning during any month of the year as I've personally experienced it year round at some point or another over the last few decades. That said, what are the odds of this actually being a concern, insanely miniscule. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is pretty bad for a 16 day ENS run in the middle of January Better than last January. Not that I am thrilled with it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I don't know...Locally, in Syracuse, this year is BY FAR worse than last year. Horrible. Stink, stank. stunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Syracuse had more snow by dec 2nd last year then we have a month later this year lol And last year sucked.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Syracuse had more snow by dec 2nd last year then we have a month later this year lol And last year sucked.. Ha! Yup! It's been painful for snow lovers...especially hardcore ones like myself. Not looking very promising either. I think we're going into a pattern now, of instead of a ridge pushing lows to our north and west, a trough is now going to make them miss us to the south and east. You can see how they'll be rotating around us in the long range. I know people say "don't trust the models that far out", but what we're going into is a common pattern for suppression. Perhaps we'll get some flukes in there that can somehow break through. I really wish we could have some adjustments into a clipper pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Syracuse had more snow by dec 2nd last year then we have a month later this year lol And last year sucked.. We had that big area wide snowstorm in Mid. Nov. I believe everyone got from 12-18" at all reporting stations. We had a bigger one this year just farther SE by 100 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Is the GFS going away and being replaced with the Para in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Syracuse had more snow by dec 2nd last year then we have a month later this year lol And last year sucked.. I've said it before and I'll say it again...(probably a good theme for 2021 as a whole). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 You guys are so encouraging. Should start an online psychyatry forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, vortmax said: You guys are so encouraging. Should start an online psychyatry forum. Matt is not going to make a great shrink. Just saying. I think I’d end up taking the bridge 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: We just continue to have horrible timing/luck. Tomorrow is looking more lame with each run. Now, it's light rain to a bit of snow and then back to light rain. At this rate, Syracuse could very well beat the record of least snowy winter (50.6 inches in 11-12). We are at 14 inches to date. Thats not the least snowiest, its 32.6" in 1936 or something like that. Either way, I think we can do it, why not as it just refuses to snow anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 56 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Matt is not going to make a great shrink. Just saying. I think I’d end up taking the bridge Ouch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 34 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Thats not the least snowiest, its 32.6" in 1936 or something like that. Either way, I think we can do it, why not as it just refuses to snow anymore! Makes sense. The data I was looking at started in 1949 (?) when the airport site moved to where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 GFS just spit out 5” for Syracuse, Matt. Do we buy or sell? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 @rochesterdave, did you see the pic I posted just above yours? Hmmm, which one do you think is more likely this year??? lol The Canadians showed us getting lots of snow as of 2 days ago...now we get like half an inch. Check out this winner: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Looks like a nice little burst to move through and freshen everything this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Looks like a nice little burst to move through and freshen everything this morning. Looks like all sleet on correlation coefficient unfortunately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like all sleet on correlation coefficient unfortunately lol. Giant parachutes here in clarence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Giant parachutes here in clarence Same here. Nice call. Falling nicely to the ground with not much wind. Already coated the ground including the streets. Looks pretty looking out the window this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 It has to be said. January looks shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Nice parachutes, Buffalo friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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