Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

2009-2010 was a really weird winter. Only snowfall was Dec/Jan/Feb, nothing at all any other month

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

[Thinksnow18]

The odd part is it behaved like an exact meteorological winter...December through February then nothing. I would take that as after February snow is useless.

[wolfie09]

2010-2011 was another"blocky" period..

Oswego county did do well starting in January..

JANUARY  2011

January was a consistently cold and snowy winter month for all of western and central New York. The major thaw on the 1^st with temperatures in the 50s melted just about all the snow and ice from December, but nearly constant subfreezing temperatures and daily snowfalls were the rule for the rest of the month.  The snowfall was amazingly consistent...with measurable amounts falling on 25 to 27 days...but the falls were virtually all "nickel and dime" with Buffalo's largest fall just 3". The region missed all the major storms which affected the east coast and near south. Totals were near to slightly above normal...mainly due to the frequency of the falls. There was one exception...Oswego county...which was nailed by all three lake effect events...on 2-5^th, 15-16^th, and 21-22^nd. Monthly totals topped 100" across much of that county.

FEBRUARY 2011

February was another very wintry month across the region...and snowfall was fairly heavy and above normal across most areas. This time however, snowfall was mainly synoptic as the blocking pattern broke down and allowed for a storm track up into the Northeast...providing our region with several rounds of synoptic snow.  Significant falls occurred on the 2^nd and 25^th while lighter but disruptive snows of a few inches occurred on 5^th, 12^th, 19-21^st and 26^th.  Only one major lake effect "event" occurred...and it focused on Oswego county and the southern Tug Hill on 9-11^th. The winter has been relentless with near record number of days below freezing and days with measurable snow...but no huge snowstorms have affected our region. It was the coldest winter in 8 years and 3^rd coldest in last 30 years.  Snow has covered the ground on all but a handful of days during the 3 month period.

MARCH 2011

March was changeable as usual...but still more on the wintry side. Unlike the past two Marches, we did get snow...but all of it was synoptic and mainly fell in two events...on 6^th and 23^rd.  The event on the 6^th was heaviest across eastern areas...with up to 6" east of the Genesee...while the event of the 23^rd focused more on western NY with up to 8".  Monthly totals were near normal but varied little from place to place...slightly more in western NY and less east of Lake Ontario

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Really looking like a decent icestorm possible for me and those North and East Friday night/Saturday...

Will be interesting to see how that plays out for you.  The system responsible is on the move the entire time so your thermal profiles should be continually changing which might help alleviate concerns as this isnt some stalled out stationary front where you just get rocked with steady state freezing rain for 24 hours.  I expect you'll have icing but nothing crippling as its almost assuredly going to change over to rain. 

[96blizz]

Ended up just shy of 8”. Not a single model had more than 3” here as of this AM. Lake effect is so much fun!!

[Ericjcrash]

20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Will be interesting to see how that plays out for you.  The system responsible is on the move the entire time so your thermal profiles should be continually changing which might help alleviate concerns as this isnt some stalled out stationary front where you just get rocked with steady state freezing rain for 24 hours.  I expect you'll have icing but nothing crippling as its almost assuredly going to change over to rain. 

Yeah nothing crazy, just been trending colder and colder. We'll see, better than knowing 100% rain as theres something to follow.

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah nothing crazy, just been trending colder and colder. We'll see, better than knowing 100% rain as theres something to follow.

I think that Arctic high will be tougher to move than first modeled. 

[Thinksnow18]

18z is a hot mess

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

18z is a hot mess

[DeltaT13]

If we are going to have a complete dumpster fire of a winter I think this is the year to do it.  I can't travel anywhere to snowboard so no huge loss really.  If this was the epic season where resorts were getting buried weekly with feet of snow but I couldnt travel; I think I would completely lose my mind.  I think I am making peace with this winter (or lack thereof).  Lets roll this shitty winter up with Covid, toss it out in the spring, and try again next year.  

[BuffaloWeather]

21 hours ago, PerintonMan said:

Wait, it never got below 22 degrees in DC, in all of 2020? And they got all of a dusting of snow?

That is insane.

Yep that is correct.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

If we are going to have a complete dumpster fire or winter I think this is the year to do it.  I can't travel anywhere to snowboard so no huge loss really.  If this was the epic season where resorts were getting buried weekly with feet of snow but I couldnt travel; I think I would completely lose my mind.  I think I am making peace with this winter (or lack thereof).  Lets roll this shitty winter up with Covid, toss it out in the spring, and try again next year.  

Out west looks quite nice. Snowboarding or skiing has very little risk with contracting covid. Especially open door lifts. It's crazy to think just 2 months ago I hiked a bunch of those spots with triple digit snow.

[DeltaT13]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Out west looks quite nice. Snowboarding or skiing has very little risk with contracting covid. Especially open door lifts.

I agree with that, but Its the airports, planes, hotels, ubers, and restaurants that worry me.  Along with all the testing and protocols to get into and out of the state.  Just not worth the hassle.  

 

[Geez150]

16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

If we are going to have a complete dumpster fire of a winter I think this is the year to do it.  I can't travel anywhere to snowboard so no huge loss really.  If this was the epic season where resorts were getting buried weekly with feet of snow but I couldnt travel; I think I would completely lose my mind.  I think I am making peace with this winter (or lack thereof).  Lets roll this shitty winter up with Covid, toss it out in the spring, and try again next year.  

Shouldn't you want a great winter local? Plenty of ski resorts/hill in NY state. I'm personally pulling for a winter turn around so I can snowmobile in NY state, since we can't chase it to other states.

 

 

 

 

[TugHillMatt]

48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

18z is a hot mess

When I played the "loop" I legit couldn't keep track of which cutter was which...lol

"Is it starting the loop over again? Oh, nope..just another cutter..."

[DeltaT13]

25 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

Shouldn't you want a great winter local? Plenty of ski resorts/hill in NY state. I'm personally pulling for a winter turn around so I can snowmobile in NY state, since we can't chase it to other states.

 

 

 

 

Yes and no. The whole ski resort experience is a little less fun with all the restrictions. I’m pretty paranoid of covid so I don’t take many chances.  
 

You are right though, that a good powder day will still be fun at a local resort....but the big wild trips and all the après-ski stuff is out the window. Gone are the 20 person trips packing an Airbnb, the 2 hour post mountain drinks at the lodge, closing down the bars while parading around town with a shot ski till 2am. It’s all so depressing. I’ve done well with being isolated so far, but I feel like its getting harder not being around people the way I’m used to. The cracks are beginning to show. 

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yes and no. The whole ski resort experience is a little less fun with all the restrictions. I’m pretty paranoid of covid so I don’t take many chances.  
 

You are right though, that a good powder day will still be fun at a local resort....but the big wild trips and all the après-ski stuff is out the window. Gone are the 20 person trips packing an Airbnb, the 2 hour post mountain drinks at the lodge, closing down the bars while parading around town with a shot ski till 2am. It’s all so depressing. I’ve done well with being isolated so far, but I feel like its getting harder not being around people the way I’m used to. The cracks are beginning to show. 

We went to holiday valley on Sunday to go tubing (if you haven’t gone it’s about 4 miles from the resort, kinda odd) and I accidentally went to the main part of HV...it was LOADED...there was a mile backup through the village and that was just to get in to the road to get to the lodge...it looked like a damn bills game there were so many cars and they had probably 6 people directing traffic in and out...and this was at 4:30 in the evening!!! My point is there really wasn’t much in the way of distancing and many people were out and about 

[DeltaT13]

9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

We went to holiday valley on Sunday to go tubing (if you haven’t gone it’s about 4 miles from the resort, kinda odd) and I accidentally went to the main part of HV...it was LOADED...there was a mile backup through the village and that was just to get in to the road to get to the lodge...it looked like a damn bills game there were so many cars and they had probably 6 people directing traffic in and out...and this was at 4:30 in the evening!!! My point is there really wasn’t much in the way of distancing and many people were out and about 

Yeah I had friends there that day. That said you just referenced arguable the busiest weekend of the entire year for HV (and they had fresh snow!). I avoid most resorts on weekends and holidays if at all possible. I’m sure I can pick some days later this winter when places will be dead.

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yes and no. The whole ski resort experience is a little less fun with all the restrictions. I’m pretty paranoid of covid so I don’t take many chances.  
 

You are right though, that a good powder day will still be fun at a local resort....but the big wild trips and all the après-ski stuff is out the window. Gone are the 20 person trips packing an Airbnb, the 2 hour post mountain drinks at the lodge, closing down the bars while parading around town with a shot ski till 2am. It’s all so depressing. I’ve done well with being isolated so far, but I feel like its getting harder not being around people the way I’m used to. The cracks are beginning to show. 

I hear ya. I did 3 fantastic ski trips last year. I don’t see that happening this year. I’ll miss the skiing but I’ll never miss the ‘packing 20 into an air-b-and-b’ part. I’m getting too old for that. Especially with a communicable disease in our midst. Last year I got my own hotel room and it was worth 10x it’s price. Of course the lack of snow lessens the blow! 

[DeltaT13]

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I hear ya. I did 3 fantastic ski trips last year. I don’t see that happening this year. I’ll miss the skiing but I’ll never miss the ‘packing 20 into an air-b-and-b’ part. I’m getting too old for that. Especially with a communicable disease in our midst. Last year I got my own hotel room and it was worth 10x it’s price. Of course the lack of snow lessens the blow! 

 I meant pack a 20 person house with 20 people. Not pack 20 people into a 6 person house, lol. I’m right there with you. I need my own room and space. But I still love huge ski trips with a ton of people. 

[Syrmax]

46 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

 I meant pack a 20 person house with 20 people. Not pack 20 people into a 6 person house, lol. I’m right there with you. I need my own room and space. But I still love huge ski trips with a ton of people. 

You bring up a great perspective relative to this winter and the pandemic restrictions. That's probably part of why I am looking forward to pool weather IMBY at this point especially since Nov & Dec were "lost" months for many of us. And Half of Jan looks to be shot. 

I'll be content with snowshoeing with a couple of friends, as I did last weekend.  I'm not covid paranoid per se but avoiding crowds and taking sensible precautions is smart, and everyone I know does.  But I carry on as normal with friends and family, for the most part.  Problem is, none of this is ending in 2021. It'll be 2022 Summer at earliest before anything resembling normal life returns - if it ever does. So prepare mentally for the really long haul.  That's the plan already being telegraphed to us. Sadly, there may not be many ski areas still in business by then.  At least in NY.

[TugHillMatt]

Hmmm...if the Rgem ends up right for the Friday/Saturday wave, we could be looking at a longer duration winter weather event. The GFS is way warmer than the rest of the models with temps and dews getting into the mid 40s. Meh.

[rochesterdave]

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hmmm...if the Rgem ends up right for the Friday/Saturday wave, we could be looking at a longer duration winter weather event. The GFS is way warmer than the rest of the models with temps and dews getting into the mid 40s. Meh.

Maybe. I think that’s sleet. I’ve seen that signature before in that same area. I’ve been lovin on the RGEM but I don’t buy those snow totals for a second. Maybe up into the Dacks but not just north of the thruway. Colder tho

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Maybe. I think that’s sleet. I’ve seen that signature before in that same area. I’ve been lovin on the RGEM but I don’t buy those snow totals for a second. Maybe up into the Dacks but not just north of the thruway. Colder tho

Yeah, I think it is sleet as well. I have no problem with that. Like I said earlier today, sleet will help preserve whatever snowpack we may manage to have left...just a little longer. haha

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

You bring up a great perspective relative to this winter and the pandemic restrictions. That's probably part of why I am looking forward to pool weather IMBY at this point especially since Nov & Dec were "lost" months for many of us. And Half of Jan looks to be shot. 

I'll be content with snowshoeing with a couple of friends, as I did last weekend.  I'm not covid paranoid per se but avoiding crowds and taking sensible precautions is smart, and everyone I know does.  But I carry on as normal with friends and family, for the most part.  Problem is, none of this is ending in 2021. It'll be 2022 Summer at earliest before anything resembling normal life returns - if it ever does. So prepare mentally for the really long haul.  That's the plan already being telegraphed to us. Sadly, there may not be many ski areas still in business by then.  At least in NY.

I was in my pool everyday from June-August. Best summer ever

[BuffaloWeather]

What's really crazy to me is how the cold air has been in Russia every winter for the last 6 years. The last below normal Dec-Feb was in 2013-2014.

[TugHillMatt]

Canadian looks more robust with the Sunday/Monday system. However, the stupid Lake Plain is a valley of moist warm farts and it would probably be glop.

[BuffaloWeather]

Even once the pattern does change, this is pretty terrible for our area. Too warm for lake effect, and too far south for the storm track for synoptic. This pattern is probably the worst out there. We want an East based -NAO to allow that pocket off cold air near Alaska to funnel through for our area and provide a slightly -EPO. I got nothing good to say about January.

[rochesterdave]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Canadian looks more robust with the Sunday/Monday system. However, the stupid Lake Plain is a valley of moist warm farts and it would probably be glop.

It’s far enough SE that maybe it’s a watcher? 

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Even once the pattern does change, this is pretty terrible for our area. Too warm for lake effect, and too far south for the storm track for synoptic. This pattern is probably the worst out there. We want an East based -NAO to allow that pocket off cold air near Alaska to funnel through for our area and provide a slightly -EPO. I got nothing good to say about January.

It’s a similar pattern that brought that epic mid Atlantic winter a few years back. I’ll take my chances on that. IDK. Synoptic storms could inch far enough into our region, no? Agree that it would kill any lake effect chances.