DeltaT13 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 This is a bit anecdotal but still quite interesting. I always like to compare the high peaks snowpacks as a consistent metric for the intensity of our winter. These higher elevation locations are less susceptible to quick warmups and thus give a nice average of where things stand. Unfortunately, high peaks snowpack in the Northeast is flirting with all time record low territory. Sadder yet, I can only find a couple years where snowpack on this date is as low as it is now....... the dreaded 2015-2016 season, and 2011-2012 season. Basically the 2 most recent years without winter for many us. Snowpack is currently a solid 2 feet less than normal and almost 5-6 feet lower than good years. This does not bode well for where things stand and the the next 2 weeks already look atrocious. I really think the writing is now on the wall for a very lackluster winter. I was holding out hope but its just not looking good. Current Season The year without winter - 2015/2016 2011-2012 "Winter" 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 So to all my rowdy friends I beg this question. What Is the reason it is so difficult to dislodge the dreaded Bermuda high? Every storm on the GFS and Euro go west and north pushing away seemingly just as strong Arctic high pressure with relative ease. I guess I’m wondering why one can anchor and stay for weeks and affect our storm track while the other is transient and constantly giving way to LP systems...I would think (amateur opinion here) that if both were of equal strength that the system would have a squeeze play of sorts giving us some warmer storms and some colder storm but not all warmer storms...any thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So to all my rowdy friends I beg this question. What Is the reason it is so difficult to dislodge the dreaded Bermuda high? Every storm on the GFS and Euro go west and north pushing away seemingly just as strong Arctic high pressure with relative ease. I guess I’m wondering why one can anchor and stay for weeks and affect our storm track while the other is transient and constantly giving way to LP systems...I would think (amateur opinion here) that if both were of equal strength that the system would have a squeeze play of sorts giving us some warmer storms and some colder storm but not all warmer storms...any thoughts? From Met on NE forum EPO sucks but the NAO is a fraud -NAO. It’s not a west-based Davis Strait or even Hudson Bay block. It’s eastern Greenland to Iceland ridging with a vortex over Baffin Island...in scientific technical lingo, that’s called a dogshit negative NAO. They can be ok when the PAC is mediocre but not when it is hostile. Previously, model guidance showed a true Davis Strait block which was going to offset the shitty PAC. Basically the PAC has sucked for a few years now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 The PV splits but the cold air goes to the Northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The faux -NAO appears to block it from moving this way. Our global weather pattern needs exactly what our government needs: A full reset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 It could be worse 2020 isn't quite over yet, but barring something unexpected - For DC (downtown station plus DCA airport) has its warmest minimum for the calendar year on record, 22, beating 21 in 1949. Also the least snowy calendar year on record, 0.2", beating 0.5" in 1998. — NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) December 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The PV splits but the cold air goes to the Northwest Oddly on the GFS it goes east coast and that’s only next week too, the GFS isn’t until the 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Trash PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Calling for +5 for January for KBUF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Trash PAC I mean that is only a full week and it does start to trend towards neutral so maybe that’s why the very same model that’s forecasting that is forecasting 4 days later a cold dump into the east...could be a good sign, I mean look at what barely negative just did for us! 20+“ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Concerning lake effect, inversions less than 5kft and dry air with approaching high pressure ridge will limit the response off Lake Erie through Tuesday. Expect numerous westerly flow multiple band regime snow showers tonight especially impacting higher terrain from Chautauqua county into Southern Erie county. Winds shift more northwest late tonight into Tuesday, pushing most of the snow showers into Chautauqua county, but coverage and intensity will really be waning by that time. Accumulations of a few inches are expected. Off Lake Ontario, expect a more robust lake response. Forecast soundings show inversions rising to 7-8kft and lake equilibrium levels to 11-12kft late this evening through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. Soundings also show that good part of lake convective layer will reside within prime DGZ for better snowflake growth. Winds start out westerly with stronger convergence band pushing in across Tug Hill Plateau through late evening then winds shift more northwest overnight, ending the lake effect over the Tug Hill but pushing it more into Oswego/N. Cayuga and Wayne counties with this activity also boosted by hint of upstream connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For location of lake effect later tonight off southeast Lake Ontario, leaned on the Canadian and NAMnest. If winds were more steady for more of the night, think we could be looking at some warning criteria snow across Oswego county. Shifting in the main band should keep amounts more in the 4-7 inch range later tonight into Tuesday morning before the lake effect fades away. Additionally, it is possible that the western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least some minor snow accumulations that could impact the Tuesday morning commute, including in the Rochester area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 All 3 ENS look pretty decent after first 10 days of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Concerning lake effect, inversions less than 5kft and dry air with approaching high pressure ridge will limit the response off Lake Erie through Tuesday. Expect numerous westerly flow multiple band regime snow showers tonight especially impacting higher terrain from Chautauqua county into Southern Erie county. Winds shift more northwest late tonight into Tuesday, pushing most of the snow showers into Chautauqua county, but coverage and intensity will really be waning by that time. Accumulations of a few inches are expected. Off Lake Ontario, expect a more robust lake response. Forecast soundings show inversions rising to 7-8kft and lake equilibrium levels to 11-12kft late this evening through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. Soundings also show that good part of lake convective layer will reside within prime DGZ for better snowflake growth. Winds start out westerly with stronger convergence band pushing in across Tug Hill Plateau through late evening then winds shift more northwest overnight, ending the lake effect over the Tug Hill but pushing it more into Oswego/N. Cayuga and Wayne counties with this activity also boosted by hint of upstream connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For location of lake effect later tonight off southeast Lake Ontario, leaned on the Canadian and NAMnest. If winds were more steady for more of the night, think we could be looking at some warning criteria snow across Oswego county. Shifting in the main band should keep amounts more in the 4-7 inch range later tonight into Tuesday morning before the lake effect fades away. Additionally, it is possible that the western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least some minor snow accumulations that could impact the Tuesday morning commute, including in the Rochester area. I'm expecting less than 3" of snow and Im smack dab in the middle of where they say the band will end up. I will say the set-up is definitely ideal with a steady WNW flow for about 6-8 hrs which can drop several inches if it materializes the way they say it will but with the way things have gone so far, i'll stay cautiously optimistic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: All 3 ENS look pretty decent after first 10 days of January. That is the hope we need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 This is not an ideal sounding for heavy LES Now this is an amazing sounding but look at the mean wind flow 260, once again, congrats Wolfie, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Starting to see a lake response.. Sitting at 37 with some graupel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Starting to see a lake response.. Sitting at 37 with some graupel.. Not a bad response given the high temp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Icing potential is pretty decent for the weekend(C/ENY)~.50" liquid with subfreezing surface on a lot of guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Icing potential is pretty decent for the weekend(C/ENY)~.50" liquid with subfreezing surface on a lot of guidance Both 18Z NAMs are also showing colder air seeping in from the Northeast on Thursday and precip being a bit slower to move out. As a result, they're trying to show us change over to a nice little burst of snow. Sometimes these waves along these transitory fronts can come with nice surprises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Calling for +5 for January for KBUF. I see you and Syrmax "like" this. Hmmm...I haven't observed the term "cough" -warministas- "cough" thrown around on here lately.... (remember back in the 2000s anytime somebody mentioned a "warm up" they had that term slung at them?!?! lol) Still, I turn my nose up at you warministas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Definitely some graupel in there, we had some this afternoon here too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Calling for +5 for January for KBUF. LOL you joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 56 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to see a lake response.. Sitting at 37 with some graupel.. Up towards your old stomping grounds had a nice burst first thing this morning.81 from Pulaski up to at least Adams exit 42 was pretty crappy with a good 2-3” in a hurry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Pretty big change wrt to the snowmap..Now I can kiss my snow goodbye.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I think this event for South East of Lake Ontario is going to over perform a bit.... For areas in Oswego County... I go with 6 to 10".... And then late tonight into tomorrow morning a 4 to 7" accumulation for northern Onondaga county and probably closer to 8" in my neck of the woods in Madison County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Throw a dart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Rgem is the outlier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 High rez Canadian splits me and freak lol Eventually it sinks south. We'll see who verifies best tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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