CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I posted hour 360 of the 6Z GFS which is the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem seems pretty locked in with this event, only time will tell if it's correct or not..WRF models have this more of a NW event while Canadian guidance has more of a WNW.. Last 3 runs of the regional Canadian.. Yeah, and the totals were lowered each time, lol, as the 12Z has me getting 1". Like I said, its just not gonna happen at least for my area, but your area, as usual is a lock for some kind of accumulation so congrats bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm not even tracking anymore this season as its absolutely pointless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm not even tracking anymore this season as its absolutely pointless! Finally, what took you so long to realize. Winter was already cancelled 6 weeks ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem seems pretty locked in with this event, only time will tell if it's correct or not..WRF models have this more of a NW event while Canadian guidance has more of a WNW.. Last 3 runs of the regional Canadian.. It looks more like a W wind flow on the Rgem. Looks awful for the Cuse. Syracuse Snow shield activated? The only thing we do well is warm above expected highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Like I stated yesterday RGEM doesn't really have a sustained flow..How many times have we seen this scenario before? Lol Band starts out westerly and shifts south as the system progresses east..It looks like a "westerly" event because the band is stronger out of the west and weakens as it heads south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It looks more like a W wind flow on the Rgem. Looks awful for the Cuse. Syracuse Snow shield activated? The only thing we do well is warm above expected highs. Tug hill must’ve come back from his vacation... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Tug hill must’ve come back from his vacation... Lol...yup! I do think we are in the process of heading into a better pattern but the models are struggling with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sitting at 36° watching my snow melt lol Forecasted high right around 40°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Forecasted 1"-3" this evening.. Wind direction West-NW.. Snow before 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Low around 21. West wind 7 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Like I stated yesterday RGEM doesn't really have a sustained flow..How many times have we seen this scenario before? Lol Band starts out westerly and shifts south as the system progresses east..It looks like a "westerly" event because the band is stronger out of the west and weakens as it heads south..Why we even taking a model run verbatim?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Later tonight and Tuesday morning a secondary cold front will move southeast across Lake Ontario. The convergence from the cold front will merge with pre-existing lake generated convergence, allowing for a brief burst of heavier snow to develop southeast of the lake. Mesoscale model guidance also suggests a brief upstream connection to Lake Huron during this time frame, giving an added boost to the band southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance including the 3km NAM, WRF windows, and GEM show a good deal of spread on where this band will develop initially. Pattern recognition and mean boundary layer flow suggests this band should develop late tonight in central Oswego County, then move south towards northern Cayuga and eastern Wayne counties Tuesday morning, before weakening by midday. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches in this area tonight through Tuesday, with most of that coming in a relatively short window late tonight and Tuesday morning. The western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with 1-2 inches of accumulation expected. This may impact the Tuesday morning commute in the Rochester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Why we even taking a model run verbatim? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I did last event and it paid off lol Nws looks at the NAM/WRF and they bust lol Rgem did better at hour 50 than WRF models did hour 6 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Later tonight and Tuesday morning a secondary cold front will move southeast across Lake Ontario. The convergence from the cold front will merge with pre-existing lake generated convergence, allowing for a brief burst of heavier snow to develop southeast of the lake. Mesoscale model guidance also suggests a brief upstream connection to Lake Huron during this time frame, giving an added boost to the band southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance including the 3km NAM, WRF windows, and GEM show a good deal of spread on where this band will develop initially. Pattern recognition and mean boundary layer flow suggests this band should develop late tonight in central Oswego County, then move south towards northern Cayuga and eastern Wayne counties Tuesday morning, before weakening by midday. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches in this area tonight through Tuesday, with most of that coming in a relatively short window late tonight and Tuesday morning. The western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with 1-2 inches of accumulation expected. This may impact the Tuesday morning commute in the Rochester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I did last event and it paid off lol Nws looks at the NAM/WRF and they bust lol Rgem did better at hour 50 than WRF models did hour 6 lol I really hope your favored LES model is wrong this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Rgem makes total sense too lol You have system on the move so the band will be on the move.. Which is exactly what the NWS stated..Starts in central Oswego county and pushes south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Hi rez Canadian does the exact same thing..A quick couple hours of heavy snow..In Altmar we got these quite often, quick 2"-4" in an hour or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Earlier last week I jokingly wrote, “look out Chicago!” because I expected the then awesome looking snow potential to drift a little west, “indices being what they are”. Welp, here it is. Look out Minneapolis! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 RGEM’s been killing it this winter. Ride it hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Earlier last week I jokingly wrote, “look out Chicago!” because I expected the then awesome looking snow potential to drift a little west, “indices being what they are”. Welp, here it is. Look out Minneapolis! The trend west wasn’t subtle. It jumped quick. I don’t see anything for the next 10 days synoptically. Could get some backside LES of this, but that’s it for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Could be a surprise where ever this band decides to go..Hi rez Canadian with over 1/2" liquid in a few hours.. Last 2 runs of the HRRR( still snowing).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be a surprise where ever this band decides to go..Hi rez Canadian with over 1/2" liquid in a few hours.. Last 2 runs of the HRRR( still snowing).. Look at the second frame and you see where the band splits, thats exactly where I live, lol, so thats exactly what I'm expecting to happen cause it happens that way every event and I wouldn't even call this an event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I can't wait to move away from this snow hole that I live in. I knew when I purchased this house in 2008 that we were buying in a wicked transition zone and I was definitely right, but at least back then we nickel and dimed our way to average, but we cant even do that anymore or so it seems! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Apparently I'm not the only one who whines... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I will take what the RAP is showing, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Apparently I'm not the only one who whines... Um, I don't think that was me whining by saying I suddenly live in a snow hole and I can't wait to move, lol! You do nothing but whine even when its snowing, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 LEK is gonna jackpot with tonight's flurries, lol, as I bet he ends up with close to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Looks like the wind shift is approaching the middle of Lake Ontario and racing eastward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Um, I don't think that was me whining by saying I suddenly live in a snow hole and I can't wait to move, lol! You do nothing but whine even when its snowing, lol! Debatable... you're in denial. I know I whine...when I catch myself I try to apologize. I don't think it's fair to say it's all I do. I like to have meteorological and funny, light-hearted discussion on here too. There's no question I've been extremely disappointed with the 3 winters (2.5) that I've lived in Upstate NY. They've sucked relative to average for the locations I am in. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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