tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Throw in sleet and freezing rain too. If you wanna bite on that. I could see a brief period of sleet freezing rain. Bout not hours of it like meso models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Throw in sleet and freezing rain too. If you wanna bite on that. I could see a brief period of sleet freezing rain. Bout not hours of it like meso models show. No way, this is going to be a heavy rain to heavy snow transition because of the isothermal lift...gonna plaster everything. From the 18z NAM, you'll see the thermal front goes through between 0z and 3z, temps drop from 44 to 35, then 33. I think we'll see the changeover in the mid-30s - leading to a few extra hours of snowfall. I believe the momentum of the cold air forces this even more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Watch the gfs go over buffalo now with low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Watch the gfs go over buffalo now with low. That would be a gut punch. Don't think that's gonna happen for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Perfect track. If cold air was already established, yes, but in this situation, we need it a bit more east. Since this is riding up a cold front, it's tendency is to hold the front up a bit on the north side of the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: If cold air was already established, yes, but in this situation, we need it a bit more east. Since this is riding up a cold front, it's tendency is to hold the front up a bit on the north side of the LP. Good point. We are still right on the taint line. It’s gonna be amazing or not. Lol. Sure was great watching that NAM bow to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Good point. We are still right on the taint line. It’s gonna be amazing or not. Lol. Sure was great watching that NAM bow to the GFS! Also we don't want the low to get too strong as to hold up the cold air. However, I think the biggest potential surprise is that dynamic lifting...really banking on that helping our white Christmas!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 One thing of note almost all of west va is in a warning. Very odd if roc gets nothing or even syr for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Icon sucks. Takes low from dc to Utica to Watertown to Massena. Rain the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just as a heads up, 3k NAM says no dice on any accumulation east of BUF. These models are really struggling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Rgem. Not buying it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just as a heads up, 3k NAM says no dice on any accumulation east of BUF. These models are really struggling! Looking at it now. Just looks wonky to me, not believing the 3k has a proper handle of the synoptics. Just my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Ehhh. Are we gonna discount all the high grade meso models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ehhh. Are we gonna discount all the high grade meso models? Just because they are higher res, doesn't mean they are more accurate - I mean, they are spitting out a lot of mix/ZR and we know that's not likely going to happen. I'd bet they''ll show a more east track 24hrs from the event. From Reddit: The 12km NAM has a resolution of 12km and the 3km NAM has a resolution of 3km. But to give more specifics: The NAM is a specific implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF supports the use of "nesting": You have a larger, "parent" domain run at fairly low resolution, and one or more "nested" domains at higher resolution. The model runs a calculation for one timestep of the parent domain, then those conditions are interpolated down to the nest domains, they run the calculations on the high-resolution nests for a few timesteps, then interpolate that final result back up to the parent domain, calculate a timestep, and so on. The main advantage of running the model this way (instead of just running at 3km resolution across the whole domain) is that we can put a lot more computational power into modeling phenomena over the areas we care about, rather than wasting a compute time by modeling the atmosphere at very high resolution over the open ocean (for example) where we don't care so much about the fine-scale details of the weather. I believe the only difference aside from resolution is that the convective parameterization schemes may be modified or turned off in the 3km dom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rgem. Not buying it.. And it trended a bit East and weaker as well compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I am hopeful. I’m kinda tempering my expectations after seeing the 3k and the RGEM- they aren’t even particularly close. I’m not sure why this is happening. It’s good to see movement east, for sure. Good info on 3k vs 12k! Thanks. Hopefully GFS holds firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3k NAM never does well with the precip shields. I can think of many times this summer when it showed a scraggly precip field or frontal passage only for us to get completely crushed with heavy rain that looked nothing like the 3k depiction. You're better off looking at the 12k model which does a better job of smoothing and averaging the precip IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z GFS even further East...and 1mb weaker at 06z the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Only gives roc 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Only gives roc 4 inches ONLY?? We've been on the brink of getting skunked for several days. 4 inches would be AMAZING. The trend is good. Stay on the right side of this battle man! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It's one of the only models giving CNY several inches, not so sure about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 True. I want 40 though dam it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, tim123 said: True. I want 40 though dam it. I mean 4 inches would be our biggest "storm" of the year, lol. Desperate times man..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: I literally have nothing else to do. I'm watching soccer and troubleshooting Xmas lights...seems better than getting wrapped around the axle on this one... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Great run! I’m with Delta. 4” and I’d be over the moon. That being said, it’s a fantastic track. Thermals aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This is good 12z vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This is good 12z vs 18z Definitely a better look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Ensables actually look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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