rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: And a dream Yep. It’s gonna take a lot of wishes! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Rgem i am not buying the half inch of freezing rain in Genesee valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rgem i am not buying the half inch of freezing rain in Genesee valley No way. Hopefully that’s snow. We are right on the line Tim. I think we’re due. Let the last minute eastward shift continue/ commence. Someone from BUF to Syracuse gets 6-10 from the synoptic storm. I’m not talking fake snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 OSUmet said it well on the LES thread...this is what I was asking about regarding dynamic cooling (isothermal snow w/lift). Seems it may happen here. 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: OSUmet said it well on the LES thread...this is what I was asking about regarding dynamic cooling (isothermal snow w/lift). Seems it may happen here. I saw that too. He’s smart guy. You were right yesterday. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I saw that too. He’s smart guy. You were right yesterday. Nice. Yeah, all we need now is to keep the LP east...say BGM to Old Forge or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 RALLY TIME!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: The front is so slow to move past my area also ( NYC ) Sustained winds 35 + in my area with gusts to 70mph. What a disgusting Christmas holiday. That sounds like a wonderful consolation prize to me. If it wouldnt be white, I'll take windy any day of the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rgem i am not buying the half inch of freezing rain in Genesee valley lolz, some of these models are silly. There won't be any noticeable freezing rain with a fast transient system like this IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS We’re almost 36 hours before rain changes to snow around here I’m thinking this track is probably becoming better sampled and confidence for the synoptic part should be growing in at least an advisory, however I wonder if they won’t combine the 2 for a WSW as it’s 9” in 24 hours I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Rare scenario where kuchera gives less 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 For Rochester verbatim ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Canadian models thermals are goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 39 minutes ago, 96blizz said: RALLY TIME!!! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: For Rochester verbatim ^^^^ Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 This synoptic event might be bigger than I thought. Looks good for WNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs ensembles everyone but one gives roc 4 to 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lets get the NAM, Euro, and HRRR on board and I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs ensembles everyone but one gives roc 4 to 7 Post them bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This synoptic event might be bigger than I thought. Looks good for WNY. Thinking a hybrid winter storm warning for the synoptic and lake effect for metro simply because it’s the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: Lets get the NAM, Euro, and HRRR on board and I'll be happy Canadian is brutal better throw it in. Actually, if we are being honest, it’s just the GFS that gives love to Rochrster and east....It’s tight but I like our chances more and more. The Canadian did tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Canadian Thermals are just kinda goofy has front past us and still gives mixed precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Canadian is brutal better throw it in. Actually, if we are being honest, it’s just the GFS that gives love to Rochrster and east....It’s tight but I like our chances more and more. The Canadian did tick east. We are at the point where just ride the snowiest model like Secretariat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The important thing here is that all models (except the non-compliant ICON) are trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'd go Winter storm warning for synoptic and lake effect snow warning. Will be interesting to see what KBUF does. They are definitely 2 separate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Fingers crossed for the 12z EURO. It’s really good in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I would go advisory for Wayne County westward. 3 to 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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