Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Rain can stabilize things, but not always. Even if we’re “mixed” it’s going to be moist adiabatic with the high dews advecting in over the pack. It gets more difficult in the foothills and sheltered valleys where the latently cooled air can put up an easier fight, but there’s going to be a corridor just inland where the pack will go relatively quickly and the winds will be roaring off the deck with 59/59 at 2m. Idk...I can kinda see this going either way, but I feel like you’re getting a little Popeish here with the angry anti-wind posts and trying to pound your chest while going against the grain. I mean we get it, we know where you stand. But the NWS is hitting the concern pretty hard and some other mets too. Hey, I hope you’re right...we don’t need trees falling on travelers Christmas morning. Exactly what I tried to convey 1717 can't attack you because of your tag lol. Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: LOL...... Go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Rain can stabilize things, but not always. Even if we’re “mixed” it’s going to be moist adiabatic with the high dews advecting in over the pack. It gets more difficult in the foothills and sheltered valleys where the latently cooled air can put up an easier fight, but there’s going to be a corridor just inland where the pack will go relatively quickly and the winds will be roaring off the deck with 59/59 at 2m. Idk...I can kinda see this going either way, but I feel like you’re getting a little Popeish here with the angry anti-wind posts and trying to pound your chest while going against the grain. I mean we get it, we know where you stand. But the NWS is hitting the concern pretty hard and some other mets too. Hey, I hope you’re right...we don’t need trees falling on travelers Christmas morning. I'm just trying to bring perspective and lay out everything not go all balls out b/c some model maps are showing 60+ knot gusts. I' certainly not pounding my chest at all. I can see pockets of stronger winds for sure...but how many of these set ups in the past have been overplayed? There are virtually two scenarios here; 1) It pans out 2) It doesn't pan out So what's the difference between the set ups that pan out and don't pan out? Also, just going through various bufkit profiles...it's very hard to find any locations yielding strong enough mixing to bring down 50+ knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1717 is just a trouble maker. You and I know Wiz, we can discuss anything without personal attacks. I agree with most of your assumptions however 2 concerns, fine line convection and dry slots in between rain bands. I so don't want this storm Completely agreed...if we see fine line convection or any dry slots...well all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm just trying to bring perspective and lay out everything not go all balls out b/c some model maps are showing 60+ knot gusts. I' certainly not pounding my chest at all. I can see pockets of stronger winds for sure...but how many of these set ups in the past have been overplayed? There are virtually two scenarios here; 1) It pans out 2) It doesn't pan out So what's the difference between the set ups that pan out and don't pan out? Also, just going through various bufkit profiles...it's very hard to find any locations yielding strong enough mixing to bring down 50+ knot gusts. GfS bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Exactly what I tried to convey 1717 can't attack you because of your tag lol. Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head. Why would I "attack" Wiz??....he comes across as a good guy. He shares his thoughts on the weather. At times he's correct and at other times he's not correct but that goes for all mets....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: GfS bufkit? For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 38 minutes ago, wdrag said: read the doubts about wind. Here's my suggestion; Review all the High Wind topics and note the performance (we verify all these) of the topic that takes into consideration a slight high bias in guidance in advance, of the EC and HRRR wind gust algorithm. It's not by more than 5 knots (if we did a study) I'll add two graphics from the 06z/23 HRRRX for 06z/25 only... use the legend and lets see what happens. Take at most 5 knots off the HRRRX GUST wind guidance or just use the knots as MPH. Should be very close. It's an extensive problem that is coming. I also added the 80m wind... if you don't like the option from the gust algorithm, then use the lower speed 80m wind guidance as your gust. Maybe that will verify better. We never know for sure in advance, but it's better to prepare. If the models are right, and in advance we dismiss as way too high, sooner or later we automate these model guidances and outperform humans. The models are slowly improving. Gotta run. Back this afternoon, Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Why would I "attack" Wiz??....he comes across as a good guy. He shares his thoughts on the weather. At times he's correct and at other times he's not correct but that goes for all mets....... Lol it was Dendrite. Please go away. Some people without tags have extensive experience and knowledge that adds to our discussions, all you add is stirring up trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend Merry Christmas to you too, Steve. This is certainly close. Did notice the 3km NAM was showing 50+ knot gusts over a widespread area. Not totally ruling this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010. That was a warm core spin up that Phil, Messenger and I tracked all night from south of the Cape to Boston to SNH. Eeks videos were awesome from the beach. That was a very special night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010. Definitive paper on 2010 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2013-03.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqu9bgneTtAhXwtlkKHWWLBUoQFjABegQIAhAF&usg=AOvVaw3uQQHblhASCQprTtUaHQDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Interesting that you can kind of see a bit of inversion right on the immediate coast with the gust product. Still windy as hell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hopefully the power crews in CT, RI and SE Mass are on standby. Sucks that it is on Christmas... Should be interesting to watch the outage map as well as the damage reports on BOX Some tidal concerns on south facing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hopefully the power crews in CT, RI and SE Mass are on standby. Sucks that it is on Christmas... Should be interesting to watch the outage map as well as the damage reports on BOX Some tidal concerns on south facing?? Linemen will be getting a huge Xmas bonus this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend Are the smaller rivers and streams free flowing, ie no ice jam concerns. 2-4” of rain with melting pack presents hydro concerns alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hopefully the power crews in CT, RI and SE Mass are on standby. Sucks that it is on Christmas... Should be interesting to watch the outage map as well as the damage reports on BOX Some tidal concerns on south facing?? https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ctlond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Linemen will be getting a huge Xmas bonus this year. Yup, my older brother will be one of them. He said the number of wind events the past few years has really helped with his girls’ college bills. still sucks to be called out on holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Are the smaller rivers and streams free flowing, ie no ice jam concerns. 2-4” of rain with melting pack presents hydro concerns alone Local rivers have ice but not thick. The issue will more or less just be the water in W NE. I would be concerned for places in S Vermont and E NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, my older brother will be one of them. He said the number of wind events the past few years has really helped with his girls’ college bills. still sucks to be called out on holidays. I'm doubting there is a way to track it, but have the last 10 years or so had more big wind events in SNE than usual? Sure seems that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm doubting there is a way to track it, but have the last 10 years or so had more big wind events in SNE than usual? Sure seems that way... He has been with Verizon for 18 years and said he has been much busier with overtime ever since the Springfield tornado in 2011. I take his opinion with the caveat that crews from pretty far away can get called in for fairly localized events so it’s difficult to speak for New England as a whole. He is stationed out of Haverhill and Boston which were not affected by the tornado yet he spent a week working down in that Wilbraham - Sturbridge corridor that got nailed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm doubting there is a way to track it, but have the last 10 years or so had more big wind events in SNE than usual? Sure seems that way... As far as my backyard goes I think the past few years have definitely been windier here based on number of trees and branches down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I hope there’s cactus and Joshua trees in Taunton this summer. The drought is the only real weather event we’ve had here this year. At least that actually materialized... unliked any winter “threats” over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010. That's the one where the storm center ripped up the Merrimack River and anyone north of the center ripped right? Remember sitting in my dorm at U Lowell with the wind ripping wondering what the hell was going on. I don't think winds of that magnitude were in the forecast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 We’ll see what happens... hopefully the bare trees mitigates much power issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The drought is the only real weather event we’ve had here this year. At least that actually materialized... unliked any winter “threats” over the next two weeks. 2020 is one of the dullest years for weather that I can recall. The drought certainly impacted many people especially those with wells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The drought is the only real weather event we’ve had here this year. At least that actually materialized... unliked any winter “threats” over the next two weeks. You just had over a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: 2020 is one of the dullest years for weather that I can recall. The drought certainly impacted many people especially those with wells. We are due for dull. We’ve had a lot of record events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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