Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

4-5’ whitecaps on the Quabbin? 

No one bothers heading out if its blowing 15mph straight from the north or south.  There are 4-5 footers with 25-30 mph. Christmas will probably look something like this.

 

 

 

What a difference a week makes. Replace weenie kuchera maps with weenie wind maps. 

 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I was actually just thinking about that storm a few minutes ago.

The strongest pressure gradient was pretty localized in that storm so it was really SW CT, Long Island, and NYC metro that got hit hard. 

Iirc, I think that storm wrapped in a little sting like feature? I could have sworn it destabilized a tad in that down near NYC.

[Damage In Tolland]

Boom when the ens mean show this. Katy bar the door 

 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Boom when the ens mean show this. Katy bar the door 

 

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG turns into FLYYAWAYICEBERG?

[Chrisrotary12]

 

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just an unreal look. May go down as one of our all time screams .. and on Christmas Day no less 

Impressive that it accurate depicts the Merrimack Valley wind hole. We do way better on a strong CAA day than a tropical southerly gale.

[amc]

GYX not buying into model hype. Steady at 50MPH for a while now in their discussion.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, amc said:

GYX not buying into model hype. Steady at 50MPH for a while now in their discussion.

Well it's always best to never buy the hype, but 50 knot gusts with 2.5 days to go in our forecasts is probably one of our all time lead times for a wind event. It's one of the better looking signals I've seen (caveat I haven't done a model reanalysis of 10/30/17 yet).

[CT Valley Snowman]

High wind watches are coming for Rhode island and eastern Mass.  Not enough confidence for CT yet per Box discussion.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

High wind watches are coming for Rhode island and eastern Mass.  Not enough confidence for CT yet per Box discussion.

This is exactly what they did in that massive Nov event. They have some new mets that don’t understand CT Climo , and frankly don’t pay much attention to CT. It’s very ENE centric. They didn’t even issue wind advisories for that event and we ended up with some of the strongest winds and most outages. 
 

However I just read it and it’s Nocera and he’s good. He let ALB and OKX overrule him. It’s coming 

After collaboration
with WFO ALY & OKX will hold off on interior CT given highest threat
is RI and Eastern MA as low level jet continues to increase as it
advects across those areas. However later shifts may have to expand
high wind watch westward into CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

deterministic guidance
continues to trend upward with low level 925 mb jet up to 75-85 kt
of wind streaming across CT-RI and eastern MA Thu night into Fri
morning. While models do struggle with low level lapse rates on
southerly wind events, model time sections indicate 50-60 kt of wind
extending downward to below 1 kft! That`s typically a good signal
for 50+ kt reaching the surface

[Hoth]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well it's always best to never buy the hype, but 50 knot gusts with 2.5 days to go in our forecasts is probably one of our all time lead times for a wind event. It's one of the better looking signals I've seen (caveat I haven't done a model reanalysis of 10/30/17 yet).

The 10/30/17 "forgettable" storm was an awesome event.

[Modfan2]

Is see BOX has hoisted High Wind Watches for Eastern areas, I assume High Wind Warning for CT zones?

[weatherwiz]

2-6km lapse rates do look better over eastern sections. 

[weatherwiz]

Here's BOS on the GFS

that's quite impressive actually...but you gotta draw that down. That is probably pretty close to the inversion too. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

What's that? You wanted a White Christmas this year?

[OceanStWx]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here's BOS on the GFS

that's quite impressive actually...but you gotta draw that down. That is probably pretty close to the inversion too. 

What inversion on the GFS? No real hint of one on soundings until about 800 mb.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

What inversion on the GFS? No real hint of one on soundings until about 800 mb.

ahh yeah you're right. Now I am not totally sure I buy that...otherwise they are in for some big trouble. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Man this thing is gonna scream louder than kids who didn't get that PS5 they wanted. 

Whenever I see your avatar I think its a bong...  Highminster?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What inversion on the GFS? No real hint of one on soundings until about 800 mb.

Might be one of those events with interior srn CT into RI and SE MA rips just away from the water. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The latest BOX AFD has more exclamation points than a James post

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The latest BOX AFD has more exclamation points than a James post

Exclamations, all caps...

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s never been an inversion. The GFS is always lowest in winds. When it shows these eye popping numbers 2-4 days in advance when it’s usually last to catch on, you’d sure better take the gusts up and high . That’s a huge signal. It’s gonna be 62/59. It is going to absolutely rip 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s never been an inversion. The GFS is always lowest in winds. When it shows these eye popping numbers 2-4 days in advance when it’s usually last to catch on, you’d sure better take the gusts up and high . That’s a huge signal. It’s gonna be 62/59. It is going to absolutely rip 

I generally agree with you on this one... if those dew points are legit there’s no stable cold low level layer.  I’d have to imagine it’s pretty decent mixing if surface dews are 55-60F in late December over snowpack.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I generally agree with you on this one... if those dew points are legit there’s no stable cold low level layer.  I’d have to imagine it’s pretty decent mixing if surface dews are 55-60F in late December over snowpack.

This is one of those deals where the higher winds will be away from the ocean. Like the Cape to say BDR will gust less than 10-50 or 75 miles inland if those temps and dews are legit . There won’t be any snowpack. It’ll be wiped out mainly by dark Xmas Eve . It’s 50’s all day 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is exactly what they did in that massive Nov event. They have some new mets that don’t understand CT Climo , and frankly don’t pay much attention to CT. It’s very ENE centric. They didn’t even issue wind advisories for that event and we ended up with some of the strongest winds and most outages. 
 

However I just read it and it’s Nocera and he’s good. He let ALB and OKX overrule him. It’s coming 

After collaboration
with WFO ALY & OKX will hold off on interior CT given highest threat
is RI and Eastern MA as low level jet continues to increase as it
advects across those areas. However later shifts may have to expand
high wind watch westward into CT.

No one pays attention  to CT.  It's just a drive through state to get somewhere else.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Exclamations, all caps...

Party on...me.

[TalcottWx]

Just finding out about this wind on social media. 

 

Driving to CT from MA at 6am on Friday. It sounds legitimately dangerous? 

[TalcottWx]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

It's why media sucks. 

The goal is to draw people in at any cost possible. Viewers = money and when it comes to social media platforms likes/follows just equals a big ego. There is obviously nothing wrong with sharing forecast models online, however, the way it's done is just totally irresponsible. The idea should be to use something to emphasize or illustrate what you're trying to forecast. What gets me is when people will post like a snow map that shows 20-30'' and then say "here is one model showing 20-30''. doesn't mean it will happen, and this is only one model"...WTF is the point of the post then? there is no point other than to get views/likes/clicks. 

Just be careful. A lot of people, including myself, knew and hated this when I worked in media. It pisses off a lot of the employees in a newsroom that media has become, what it's become. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

You’re a mean one...