Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just an unreal look. May go down as one of our all time screams .. and on Christmas Day no less 

That’s so off. First of all, it doesn’t shape the coastline magically. Second, highest gusts likely just away from shoreline because SSTs will cause an inversion. 

This event favors hilltops , ridges particularly but also places 10-30 miles inland off the water 

[weatherwiz]

The big problem with getting maximum wind gust potential with this is the core of the LLJ coincides with the heavy rain. Remember the strongest winds never occur with the heaviest rain. 

[klw]

45 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

A Christmas EF2 would be the perfect end to 2020

I was cooking dinner on Sunday night.  I was distracted for a couple of seconds and stood too close to the gas stove.  I set the front of my sweater on fire.  

That pretty well summed up 2020 in my eyes.

[Torch Tiger]

56 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

A Christmas EF2 would be the perfect end to 2020

If not an EF2, damage comparable to that would be okay too

[adelphi_sky]

Looking great for my first visit ever to Vermont!    

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Looking great for my first visit ever to Vermont!    

Must be a Maryland jinx.

[Damage In Tolland]

12z Euro ups the ante

[CoastalWx]

Tossed that far inland I think. 

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed that far inland I think. 

If there was convection involved I could see that potential but I really don't see much convection with this. 

I wonder what the algorithm is for that product. llvl lapse rates are also pretty junky...appears mostly around or below 5.5 C/KM. tough to really mix down winds when they're that garbage. 

[Whineminster]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Euro ups the ante

Man this thing is gonna scream louder than kids who didn't get that PS5 they wanted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Man this thing is gonna scream louder than kids who didn't get that PS5 they wanted. 

For those that are meh ing this saying nothings coming.. I feel badly for them Xmas Day. This has all the makings of a big and widespread event as Scooter said this morning 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't get why people on social media always have to show a model prog which is the worst case scenario. Hey the GFS snow map shows 12-18'' but the NAM only shows 3-6''...let's share the GFS map b/c it shows the most snow and everyone gets aroused by hype so let's arouse them. euro showing max wind gusts of 75 mph...NAM only 55 mph...let's show the euro. NAM showing 5000 CAPE, GFS showing 2000...let's show NAM. Everything always has to be the most aggressive, most extreme output. IT's FOOKING RIDICULOUS. WTF IS THE POINT?? Oh here is a SHARPpy sounding that indicates PDS Tornado...I'm going to share that even though what's presented on the sounding is probably more indicative of straight-line winds with a bit of curvature but it's PDS tornado and I want to scare the crap out of people. OUTRAGEOUS. 

Slightly off topic, but this is what MSM does and it's frustrating.  Last night on the 6 PM news a respected news anchor was addressing the very real negative economic impacts due to COVID-19.  The example given was a woman who lost her job and took one for far less money, her income dropping from $6,000/month to $255/week.  Not $6,000 down to $1,385 or $1,105 down to $255.  The impact was huge but IMO the presentation was dishonest and makes one ponder whether other data  from that source is similarly spun. 

I know cold spell wasn't long, but any Hydro issues due to ice jams in the smaller rivers and streams?

I don't think there's enough ice - thickness nor extent - to pose a problem, at least in our area.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Euro ups the ante

4-5’ whitecaps on the Quabbin? 

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed that far inland I think. 

I'll be surprised to reach 40 in my CAD catcher location sheltered behind the Kennebec Highlands.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, tamarack said:

I'll be surprised to reach 40 in my CAD catcher location sheltered behind the Kennebec Highlands.

I’m hoping even less than that in my little hollow of a neighborhood. 

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Euro ups the ante

Well I'm fooked.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Slightly off topic, but this is what MSM does and it's frustrating.  Last night on the 6 PM news a respected news anchor was addressing the very real negative economic impacts due to COVID-19.  The example given was a woman who lost her job and took one for far less money, her income dropping from $6,000/month to $255/week.  Not $6,000 down to $1,385 or $1,105 down to $255.  The impact was huge but IMO the presentation was dishonest and makes one ponder whether other data  from that source is similarly spun. 

I know cold spell wasn't long, but any Hydro issues due to ice jams in the smaller rivers and streams?

I don't think there's enough ice - thickness nor extent - to pose a problem, at least in our area.

 

It's why media sucks. 

The goal is to draw people in at any cost possible. Viewers = money and when it comes to social media platforms likes/follows just equals a big ego. There is obviously nothing wrong with sharing forecast models online, however, the way it's done is just totally irresponsible. The idea should be to use something to emphasize or illustrate what you're trying to forecast. What gets me is when people will post like a snow map that shows 20-30'' and then say "here is one model showing 20-30''. doesn't mean it will happen, and this is only one model"...WTF is the point of the post then? there is no point other than to get views/likes/clicks. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nammy def had a bit of an inversion inland as well...but those 925 dews are pretty high and it wouldn’t surprise me if the typical just inland spots warm a bit more and mix some good gusts down. 

Can someone help me understand "inversion" a bit better?

[CT Rain]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed that far inland I think. 

I wonder if there's sort of a sweet spot just inland away from the cooler waters where the snow pack gets nuked. Maybe HFD/PVD/TAN?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder if there's sort of a sweet spot just inland away from the cooler waters where the snow pack gets nuked. Maybe HFD/PVD/TAN?

Yeah these tend to be better just inland. That graphic probably too strong well inland like where Hippy is and also along shoreline. 

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Euro ups the ante

So this has got to be bs right. Really 60-75mph gusts that far inland? 

70+ mph gusts in PA. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Can someone help me understand "inversion" a bit better?

layer of the atmosphere where temperatures warm with height rather than cool with height. 

 

[dryslot]

I'm selling those winds inland

[weatherwiz]

Bufkit (yeah kinda far out) is not very impressed with mixing (BDL). Have to change the value to 20 to really mix down stronger winds. The inversion actually isn't terribly strong though but it certainly doesn't take much of an inversion to prevent deep mixing. I still say we see gusts 40-50 inland. Bigger issue is going to be flash flooding. 

[NW_of_GYX]

The soaking rains won’t bother me, we get a few of these every winter. And in the hills around me there’s a solid 12-14 inches on the ground that will fully glacierize after this. But man other parts of western and central maine are total snow holes right now. Big inversion at the river today, 5 degrees warmer at the base than in town bethel. It’s so bizarre to see less snow and more grass the further you drive up the access road. 

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder if there's sort of a sweet spot just inland away from the cooler waters where the snow pack gets nuked. Maybe HFD/PVD/TAN?

I'm curious, if the cold water tends to protect the shoreline from high end wind, what allowed the March 12, 2010 event to slam Fairfield county so hard?

[Cold Miser]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

layer of the atmosphere where temperatures warm with height rather than cool with height. 

 

Thanks.  I wasn't sure if I was missing something more with the definition since it has been mentioned a few times for this weeks event.

[nutmegfriar]

So many folks are busy with holiday preparations that I wonder if they are only hearing "rainy and warm".  Is the magnitude of the wind with this storm not sinking in yet?

[CT Rain]

19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm curious, if the cold water tends to protect the shoreline from high end wind, what allowed the March 12, 2010 event to slam Fairfield county so hard?

I was actually just thinking about that storm a few minutes ago.

The strongest pressure gradient was pretty localized in that storm so it was really SW CT, Long Island, and NYC metro that got hit hard. 

[weatherwiz]

Let's look at the wind potential from the following perspectives:

We can "handle" wind events where we gust 40-50 mph.

• Will this result in some damage? Of course.
• Will this result in widespread damage? No. 
• Will this result in power outages? Yes
• Will this result in widespread power outages? No

Now, if we get gusts in the 50-70 mph range, well then the answers to all the above are yes. 

So, what's the likelihood of a 40-50 mph gust event vs a 50-70 mph gust event? Let's assess...

What are some of the differentiators between each?

• Low level lapse rates:
  • In our higher end wind events, there are typically steeper low-level lapse rates present. The steeper the low-level the lapse rate, the greater the depth and strength of mixing. This of course results in stronger momentum transport and tapping into stronger winds. 
  • In this event low-level lapse rates likely will be less tan 5.5 C/KM...if even that. This isn't going to get the job done. 
• Convection: 
  • The best way to drawn down strong winds is via convection. Outside of the impressive forcing, the signals for convection are very weak. No sfc-based instability, virtually no elevated-instability (or certainly not enough to indicate convection) due to very poor mid-level lapse rates and saturated profile. 
• Dry punch:
  • In these setups, the strongest winds ALWAYS occur outside of the heavier rain. Heavy rain stabilizes the atmosphere and limits mixing. Rain itself does not result in momentum transfer unless there is convection involved. A dry punch (or whatever you want to call it) can help with steepening lapse rates and also enhance mixing. 

If you look at this setup, the strongest LLJ coincides with the heaviest rain. It will be very stable above the surface and that will make it very difficult to transport much of these winds. Sure even if we "only" tap into a little bit of it we would get crazy gusts but how can we do that in this case...convection. And there isn't much signals for convection.