crossbowftw3 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: Wondering if the 18z HRRR has the right idea with gust speeds and general location of highest gusts. Seems reasonable for the most part. I think this looks close to about what may unfold...is this accounting for convective elements? If there are to be 65+ gusts it’d be if the squall line rolled through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: Wondering if the 18z HRRR has the right idea with gust speeds and general location of highest gusts. Seems reasonable for the most part. If it means busting the HWW ? - yup ...100% confidence it will be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 In addition, both the 18z nam and 18z hrrr have a s-n oriented updraft helicity swath over my folks house on eastern LI that extends northward into Old Saybrook CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Course there's the other school of gratifying Schandenfreude when/where there's pan-dimensional grid failure on the one morning of the year where the spirituality of the thing really needs to have it's electricity too, and - oh, wait, there's a word for that, 'GRINCH' ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: In addition, both the 18z nam and 18z hrrr have a s-n oriented updraft helicity swath over my folks house on eastern LI that extends northward into Old Saybrook CT. ...yeah, 50 mile wide EOF2 tornado ...who's with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: I think this looks close to about what may unfold...is this accounting for convective elements? If there are to be 65+ gusts it’d be if the squall line rolled through. That’s got 65-70+ mph over a large chunk of real estate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: Wondering if the 18z HRRR has the right idea with gust speeds and general location of highest gusts. Seems reasonable for the most part. Looks oh so familiar down here. Merry Christmas Mike. I was reading the Feb 2010 paper you contributed on. Now that was epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Sweet, a flood watch here now. This is life in the north country in winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This has to be the Grinchiest of all Grinches. 2020. Go fuk yerself 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Am I the only one who sees a possible sub tropical spin up coming out of the Bahamas adding to the mix? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This has to be the Grinchiest of all Grinches. 2020. Go fuk yerself Yeah this is one of the worst ones I’ve seen. 1996 was pretty bad though. We had like 8-10” of high content pack leftover from the Dec 6-8 storms wiped out on xmas eve. That one didn’t quite have the winds of this one but I do recall pretty strong winds regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: In addition, both the 18z nam and 18z hrrr have a s-n oriented updraft helicity swath over my folks house on eastern LI that extends northward into Old Saybrook CT. Let’s get a broken segment ripping NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: In addition, both the 18z nam and 18z hrrr have a s-n oriented updraft helicity swath over my folks house on eastern LI that extends northward into Old Saybrook CT. All set, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is one of the worst ones I’ve seen. 1996 was pretty bad though. We had like 8-10” of high content pack leftover from the Dec 6-8 storms wiped out on xmas eve. That one didn’t quite have the winds of this one but I do recall pretty strong winds regardless. Was there 3” of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: A high impact wx event and people are upset. What in the heck happened How anyone even entertains the idea you aren’t trolling in here blows my mind....yes people are upset. Ski resorts, winter enthusiasts, the layman who likes seeing a white Christmas are all upset. I’m pissed of one of New Hampshires all time snowfalls is going to get washed away 7 days after it happened and every mountain I go to will be an f’ing glacier after whatever’s left refreezes...move to Florida Dr Dews. Go join the southeast forum and you can stroke yourself off to the high dews everyday. 3 2 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing. EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing The thing I would be wary of is assuming the modeling (bufkit) is 100% correct in terms of mixing? Plus in these types of only hint of convective elements would be needed to generate big issues; especially for eastern CT... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 A storm you’ll be able to tell your kids about when they’re older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: New emoji. Merry Christmas 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This has to be the Grinchiest of all Grinches. 2020. Go fuk yerself I wish I could physically strangle this storm. Is it too late to nuke this asshole? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 What’s TWC name this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: A high impact wx event and people are upset. What in the heck happened Yeah sorry, but I'd prefer to know I'll be able to see my kids on christmas morning. My bad for inconveniencing you with my post. I hope it doesn't discourage you from continuing to participate here, as the board would greatly miss your contributions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What’s TWC name this one? Cindy-lou Who 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Got the spiked egg nog ready to go. Gonna have to drink my way through this. Bread and butter won’t cut it this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Got the spiked egg nog ready to go. Gonna have to drink my way through this. Bread and butter won’t cut it this time. Deep winter will set in soon. These torching cutters become very rare after mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Really hoping we don’t lose power.... hopefully the lack of leaves and possibly a bit of underperforming work out here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Deep winter will set in soon. These torching cutters become very rare after mid Jan. Hopefully. I had a really nice pack going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 52 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Sweet, a flood watch here now. This is life in the north country in winter for sure. Welcome to Kingsville, NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Flood Watch, High Wind Watch, Santa tries coming down that chimney, I'm going to shove a yule log right up his.............. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Hopefully. I had a really nice pack going. Already the most hourly dews of 50+ up there for met winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Records are going to fall like cats batting ornaments off the tree. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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