Torch Tiger Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 it's like a blizzard of dews 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: 3km NAM actually has a decent surge of elevated instability and even hints at an embedded supercell potential Yea the 12z HRRR at the end hinted at that as well, especially across CT and up Hippy Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 A lot of the New England scallop fleet will try and stay out to land scallops right before New Years for big auction prices. Hopefully some of the captains have common sense when 80-90 kts gets thrown around. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 There are some similarities with this event and the screamer in 96 that melted 3-4’ of snow in 24 hours. Does anyone recall how strong winds were in that event, and did the strongest winds occur over snowpack or after it had melted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There are some similarities with this event and the screamer in 96 that melted 3-4’ of snow in 24 hours. Does anyone recall how strong winds were in that event, and did the strongest winds occur over snowpack or after it had melted? Everything I can find is NY related and gusts in the 30s. There were bigger issues. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/Jan1996Flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There are some similarities with this event and the screamer in 96 that melted 3-4’ of snow in 24 hours. Does anyone recall how strong winds were in that event, and did the strongest winds occur over snowpack or after it had melted? We lost a big spruce in our front yard in that one..blew right down- roots and all. And there was snow still on the ground when it toppled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: We lost a big spruce in our front yard in that one..blew right down- roots and all. And there was snow still on the ground when it toppled. Yeah I recall quite a bit of wind damage in SNE. I just can’t find anything on how strong winds were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I recall quite a bit of wind damage in SNE. I just can’t find anything on how strong winds were Yup. Warm wet and soggy ground thawing out, and winds blowing things right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Except for the highest elevations I think winds in Franklin County going to be quite manageable. Worst is South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I usually see one maybe two per season if we get real lucky and many years we see none, Last year was one of them where we had 0. None last winter, none the winter before - 1st back-to-back with no 12"+. (Of course, 18-19 is my only 100"+ season w/o a 12" storm, so no real cause to complain - yet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR Lets just go all in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lets just go all in . Huge potential right near the Outer Banks...models traverse a ribbon of >1000 MLCape across the area. Tons of llvl instability too. Small window for a strong tornado in eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lets just go all in . Safe bet with widespread wind events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I recall quite a bit of wind damage in SNE. I just can’t find anything on how strong winds were There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. That is fantastic. Special memories there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That is fantastic. Special memories there I think the second one had thunder. Not as windy. The last one was just as bad as the first one. Lots of damage. Cutters of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. Did you help her up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Did you help her up? Of course. Lol. So did a few others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Glad we didn’t live then. LOL. They’ll be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 should have gone chasing in NC tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: should have gone chasing in NC tomorrow Quick drive on Christmas Eve I’m sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR All I want for Xmas is a Torcon of 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yikes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Oceanic SST's are seasonally declining now in the bite waters/ E of Jersey ...I'm not sure that llv jet gets down into the bottom of the sounding if the water temperature is below the WB of the air mass over top. hmm. But hell... there's wind software products and experience so assuredly this has all been considered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I don’t know if I’d feel comfortable mentioning 75mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This seems a little crazy but there might be a window for some pre-line low-topped supercells Thursday evening. The HRRR has quite a bit of 3km CAPE actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: This seems a little crazy but there might be a window for some pre-line low-topped supercells Thursday evening. The HRRR has quite a bit of 3km CAPE actually. 0-3KM? I didn’t loo to be honest, but are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t know if I’d feel comfortable mentioning 75mph. I dunno .. .thing is, I've seen more busts when it comes to 'wind' as an isolated threat metric than I can even keep track of in memory if I cared to even do so .. ugh. Now... admittedly, most HWW that don't materialize are in CAA ... What's funny about that - I've seen some where Warning gusts were met but no warning was issue more times - I think - than a warning wind forecasts have verified. Lol But anyway, of both .. these S gales do seem to stick out in memory as having some impressive canopy leaner wind gusts ...and there is also truth/physics to the notion of SSE winds causing more timbre damage because it's like the environment is not used to that wind direction.. or processed wind flow direction/maintenance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 0-3KM? I didn’t loo to be honest, but are you sure? yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing. EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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