JC-CT Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 41 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: No one pays attention to CT. It's just a drive through state to get somewhere else. If that were really true...then it wouldn’t be as wealthy as it is per capita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What is inappropriate about that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is inappropriate about that? Just gotta give him the old clown emoji from the office account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is inappropriate about that? Right . Nothing was. He had his hands tied and you could tell by his AFD. And rest assured Frank agreed with me. Just couldn’t comment. There wasn’t any ill will at all in that . Merry Christmas to all Nws folks . Even Legro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gee, you think we're going to be moving some mass around the mid latitudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right . Nothing was. He had his hands tied and you could tell by his AFD. And rest assured Frank agreed with me. Just couldn’t comment. There wasn’t any ill will at all in that . Merry Christmas to all Nws folks . Even Legro I've been saying a good place to start is the 11/30 wind event. That should probably be the baseline forecast right now. BDL gusted to 47 mph. Temps and dewpoints got into the lower 60s. Low level lapse rates were about 3C/km (not unstable but not inverted either). Could see the 925 jet crank to a similar level (OKX sampled 52 kt at 12z, but the worst of it was in the afternoon so no obs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I've been saying a good place to start is the 11/30 wind event. That should probably be the baseline forecast right now. BDL gusted to 47 mph. Temps and dewpoints got into the lower 60s. Low level lapse rates were about 3C/km (not unstable but not inverted either). Could see the 925 jet crank to a similar level (OKX sampled 52 kt at 12z, but the worst of it was in the afternoon so no obs). Based on what Frank discovered and tweeted.. this event should “blow” that one away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Based on what Frank discovered and tweeted.. this event should “blow” that one away Honestly the forecast 925/850 winds aren't that different between the two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Should make for a fun drive to CT on Friday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is inappropriate about that? No idea. I don't even know who it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Snowing hard from surprise upslope, UPS truck stuck in my driveway, fire going... almost forgot about this asshole Grinch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly the forecast 925/850 winds aren't that different between the two events. The earlier one in Nov was stronger. Maybe a week or 2 prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Snowing hard from surprise upslope, UPS truck stuck in my driveway, fire going... almost forgot about this asshole Grinch. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right . Nothing was. He had his hands tied and you could tell by his AFD. And rest assured Frank agreed with me. Just couldn’t comment. There wasn’t any ill will at all in that . Merry Christmas to all Nws folks . Even Legro Who is John Bagioni? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hope people in that strong snow band with 2" of water weight have shoveled their roofs and filled the sand bags. That area around Ludlow, VT south to Mitch precipitates very efficiently on SSE low level flow... also the SE Adirondack zone that got crushed too. They get some solid orographic help in these cutters from GFL and westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Who is John Bagioni? lol. FXwxalert on the board here. Good guy and great met in CT for years . Uses fax machine I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: FXwxalert on the board here. Good guy and great met in CT for years . Uses fax machine I believe Ahhh I thought he might be a NWS met who took offense to your ALB/OKX comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Should make for a fun drive to CT on Friday AM Wanna carpool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Snowing hard from surprise upslope, UPS truck stuck in my driveway, fire going... almost forgot about this asshole Grinch. I've been here for 9 years now and we can't seem to get out of the habit of forecast 20-30% chance of snow showers during an upslope event. I stream Pittsburg's, Alex's, and your webcams during winter to make a point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I've been here for 9 years now and we can't seem to get out of the habit of forecast 20-30% chance of snow showers during an upslope event. I stream Pittsburg's, Alex's, and your webcams during winter to make a point. Still haven’t caught on like BTV? C’mon now, lol. I love the AFDs that are like “Should just paint 100% POPS whenever the flow goes NW. the question isn’t whether it precipitates but how much.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 That’s a good shot of water on the 18z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still haven’t caught on like BTV? C’mon now, lol. I love the AFDs that are like “Should just paint 100% POPS whenever the flow goes NW. the question isn’t whether it precipitates but how much.” I dream for the day when I come in to 100% in the grids. I remember one event early in my days here when we may have had less than 15% chance of snow showers and it was just pounding +SN 1"/hr stuff up there. I took webcam screen captures and emailed them out to the staff in a rage. Full Scooter smash. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a good shot of water on the 18z ECMWF. No subby zone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Based on what Frank discovered and tweeted.. this event should “blow” that one away This will probably be more similar in impact to that October derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No subby zone there. I don't know... NE MA is starting to show up as a subsidence spot. Whether Coastalwx wants to acknowledge it or not. Consistently 0.5-0.75" less than ORH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I dream for the day when I come in to 100% in the grids. I remember one event early in my days here when we may have had less than 15% chance of snow showers and it was just pounding +SN 1"/hr stuff up there. I took webcam screen captures and emailed them out to the staff in a rage. Full Scooter smash. Lol. I've gotten used to the fact that 30% chance of snow showers means more certainty of upslope than just about any synoptic setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, alex said: Lol. I've gotten used to the fact that 30% chance of snow showers means more certainty of upslope than just about any synoptic setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, alex said: Lol. I've gotten used to the fact that 30% chance of snow showers means more certainty of upslope than just about any synoptic setup That’s why POPS are such an easy forecast with upslope. Probability of precipitation has nothing to do with amounts, but it 100% is going to precipitate given certain broad parameters. The mountains do not move, this isn’t like synoptic lift that relies on forcing that may move around and offer some uncertainty. It’s rock anchored to the ground and it is going to cause sufficient lift to, at the very least, get precipitation to fall from the sky. Thats why I never get the POPS forecasts... it should be near 100% every time the models spit out panels of even 0.01+ in the usual spots and the flow is out of some sort of westerly direction lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s why POPS are such an easy forecast with upslope. Probability of precipitation has nothing to do with amounts, but it 100% is going to precipitate given certain broad parameters. The mountains do not move, this isn’t like synoptic lift that relies on forcing that may move around and offer some uncertainty. It’s rock anchored to the ground and it is going to cause sufficient lift to, at the very least, get precipitation to fall from the sky. Thats why I never get the POPS forecasts... it should be near 100% every time the models spit out panels of even 0.01+ in the usual spots and the flow is out of some sort of westerly direction lol. Therein lies the problem. PoP from models are created from QPF. The more QPF the higher the PoP (to a certain extent, it's not like you need 5 inches to get 100% PoP). So even if a model is spitting out a lot of 0.01" amounts, that will translate to a low PoP. And if you blend a bunch of models with 0.01" in different locations, the PoP can go even lower. So you manually need to increase the values. That's usually the failure point in the forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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