HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Widespread power outages on Christmas is going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Don't often see >40 knots of MOS around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Holy crap if that's accurate. Widespread 60-70mph+ gusts across the entire northeast for Xmas Eve into Xmas. Yikes! Oh and don't forget the snowpack induced flooding for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Don't often see >40 knots of MOS around here. That is beyond impressive...wow. I'm still conflicted on the overall wind potential. My thinking is still gusts in the 40-50 mph range but there will probably see some higher gusts in the typical favored locations...but is that going to be the coast or higher elevations? For a more significant wind threat, I think I'd like to see the sfc low probably another 75-100 miles farther northwest. As currently modeled, I think it may be difficult to full swing the sfc warm front through a large part of the region. I could see it getting hung up around the MA Pike or maybe even a bit farther south. When you also get these highly anomalous LLJ's this time of year, it also usually indicates potential for a much stronger inversion (WAA aloft > WAA at the sfc). I guess it also depends too on how deep the inversion is but as we've seen it doesn't take much of an inversion to prevent big winds from mixing down. I also don't see much in the way of convection to aid in any transport. It looks quite stable throughout the column outside of some subtle unstable layers. Forcing is certainly enough to support convection but don't seeing much instability aloft. Having a fully saturated column doesn't help either. I also don't like the super heavy rain which is coincident with the max LLJ. This will further destabilize the column and lapse rates are very poor so mixing is going to be weak. I see sustained winds being strong (20-30 mph) but it might be tough to full gusts much above 40-50 mph with exception of the usual spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Holy crap if that's accurate. Widespread 60-70mph+ gusts across the entire northeast for Xmas Eve into Xmas. Yikes! Oh and don't forget the snowpack induced flooding for some. I think VT, W MA and E NY will definitely have small stream flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think VT, W MA and E NY will definitely have small stream flooding issues. Yea I would be worried about SVT and NY. Throw 2" of rain on feet of snow, streets will be flooded out. The Susquehanna around Binghamton and the West River of SVT will be in trouble. Luckily there should not be much ice up there yet. Deerfield, Westfield, and Housie should be pretty high as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think VT, W MA and E NY will definitely have small stream flooding issues. basements 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Widespread power outages on Christmas is going to be brutal. And it may come at a time when many power companies may be operating at less than ideal manpower requirements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The Euro max wind gusts maps may actually be even worse than model snow maps 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Don't often see >40 knots of MOS around here. I used to have a weenie method of taking those wind numbers, doubling them, and using that value as a peak gust in mph. 82mph seems a little high, but we’ll see. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 This is awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I don't get why people on social media always have to show a model prog which is the worst case scenario. Hey the GFS snow map shows 12-18'' but the NAM only shows 3-6''...let's share the GFS map b/c it shows the most snow and everyone gets aroused by hype so let's arouse them. euro showing max wind gusts of 75 mph...NAM only 55 mph...let's show the euro. NAM showing 5000 CAPE, GFS showing 2000...let's show NAM. Everything always has to be the most aggressive, most extreme output. IT's FOOKING RIDICULOUS. WTF IS THE POINT?? Oh here is a SHARPpy sounding that indicates PDS Tornado...I'm going to share that even though what's presented on the sounding is probably more indicative of straight-line winds with a bit of curvature but it's PDS tornado and I want to scare the crap out of people. OUTRAGEOUS. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Very sad - I hope the GFS is right because it’s gonna be miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Mothman said: Very sad - I hope the GFS is right because it’s gonna be miserable. Yeah, a pack destroying warm rain is one thing but nobody really needs power out or a tree on their house, on Christmas Day no less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hoping the 12z GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Tasty winds on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Dews in the 50s and temps approaching 60F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 i spy an inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: i spy an inversion Yeah there might be. At least to a point anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just an unreal look. May go down as one of our all time screams .. and on Christmas Day no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I’ll hammer the under on 60mph winds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 A Christmas EF2 would be the perfect end to 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just an unreal look. May go down as one of our all time screams .. and on Christmas Day no less That’s so off. First of all, it doesn’t shape the coastline magically. Second, highest gusts likely just away from shoreline because SSTs will cause an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Nammy def had a bit of an inversion inland as well...but those 925 dews are pretty high and it wouldn’t surprise me if the typical just inland spots warm a bit more and mix some good gusts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Still some pretty major timing differences between GFS and GGEM. GFS has the front through (eastern areas) by 9AM on Friday yet the GGEM hangs it back until Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: And it may come at a time when many power companies may be operating at less than ideal manpower requirements My neighbor is a lineman. Holiday pay is triple overtime with a 16 hour minimum for storm duty. He makes 60$ an hour so he would make $180×16= $2,880. Lineman will jump on any storms as the money is absurd. When they go out of state your on the clock the moment you get in the truck. Your even on the clock sleeping in a hotel. He has had $10-15k weekly paychecks doing 7 days of 16 hour shifts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I know cold spell wasn’t long, but any Hydro issues due to ice jams in the smaller rivers and streams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, BrianW said: My neighbor is a lineman. Holiday pay is triple overtime with a 16 hour minimum for storm duty. He makes 60$ an hour so he would make $180×16= $2,880. Lineman will jump on any storms as the money is absurd. When they go out of state your on the clock the moment you get in the truck. Your even on the clock sleeping in a hotel. He has had $10-15k weekly paychecks doing 7 days of 16 hour shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: I know cold spell wasn’t long, but any Hydro issues due to ice jams in the smaller rivers and streams? I think you would need to get up into NNE to find any significant amount of ice on rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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