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Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event


Baroclinic Zone
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That LLJ being forecast is one of the strongest I recall seeing; particularly on the GFS. However, I don't think that translates into a damaging wind event. We'll see strong winds for sure (from the pressure gradient alone) with winds sustained 15-25 mph and gusts 40-50 mph (usual suspects 60+) but a stronger LLJ = a stronger inversion...unless of course we are able to pop sfc temps into the 60's which I don't foresee happening. Anyways, the snow pack will certainly enhance any inversion. Convection could certainly aid in the transport of stronger winds to the sfc. In this event, forcing is significant enough to potentially yield some low-topped convection or convective elements, however, it just might be too stable, however, there might be a shallow unstable layer between H7-H6. Flooding alarms for sure though 

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The models seem awfully aggressive too with the sfc warm front. 

1) Snow pack

2) The main sfc low track is a bit too close to the region

3) multiple waves may develop along the cold front

I guess there are multiple layers to attack here...this is huge in assessing overall wind potential;

1) >60F well we would see quite a bit of wind damage/power outages

2) 55-60F probably a bit more than "scattered"

3) 50-55 more in the way of scattered

4) < 50 the steeple on Kevin's roof may get blown off but that's probably about it.

Will we see the widespread 55-60+ temperatures the models have...idk. 50-55 ay be more like it but best best is south (obviously). 

Hand drawing the sfc warm front with this would be fun. Too bad I sucked a drawing. 

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