Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Feel free to add more suggestions brotha I was happy with it! Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 CMC is west with its axis and on the eastern side of the envelop. The 500 vort map evolution is interesting. @Holston_River_Rambler was on to something earlier when he mentioned the axis of this trough needed to be watched. At 60, there is a portion of that trough that tightens up, goes slightly negative for a time(before returning to neutral). This pulls the slp north and west. Powerhouse of a system. That buckle(near MI/IN) on the approaching side of the trough is pulling the system west on both the CMC and GFS. That is why we are seeing slp pop in areas along the Big Sandy River. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That is the sign of a pretty powerful signature for storm to do that. I simple neutral tilt trough will do the trick, and the system basically returns to that after it passes our longitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The buckle/indentation on the eastern side of the 500 vort trough(you can see it around MI/IN) is not nearly as pronounced on earlier runs. That same feature is on both the GFS and CMC. That is pulling the base of that trough a bit more eastward and pulling that lee side slp northwest. That feature should give us a clue on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 For folks who are new...Go to Tropical Tidbits, select the CMC from global models, choose 500 vort map from upper air dynamics tab, toggle to hour 66, and then use the previous run arrows to look at the last four runs. Look at the changes in that trough axis. GFS is similar but not nearly as pronounced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 @Holston_River_Rambler, the UKMET looks decent...but I only have it in 12 hour increments. What do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 This still may intensify n2 a blizzard of sorts west side of Apps /eastern Ohio Valley. Doesn't have to be enormous snow amounts to meet criteria. Today's standards dont even dictate Temps below 20 of which this will even have in much of it IF Storm comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The westward trend on the GFS isn't much an LP issue, as it's how the trough and energy swing thru the Rockies...Each run the GFS has been strengthening the tail end of the energy, while slowly digging a tad more each subsequent run..in doing so, it's slowing the front down as it moves across the forum..hence snow line keeps backing up. The LP generation is secondary (think that is what has been leading to the finger like accums on the GEFS members). Front catches back edge of the moisture (fingers across middle TN, then cold slows as it pushes over the plateau (moisture begins to out run it), then the next eastern fingers are created when the surface low begins it's formation, adding to the lift. Watch the energy and how it is trending on the tail as it comes thru CA/Rockies..if it keeps getting stronger (front will slow/trend west the initial thump), and create a further northern LP (due to the angle of the front slowing, so the Apps don't help the surface gen until further NE).ist Ops/ens still showing the front needing the extra twist/lift from the Apps to complete surface generation (except the NAM, which I think is over amping in AL) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Holding off my run until after the 12z Euro....might be interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Unless Chattanooga can get super lucky with lingering moisture, or as Holston alluded to earlier with a secondary low popping around Mississippi or Alabama, this is what Johnny thinks of snow in Chattanooga this Thursday. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Sorry somewhere I can’t access the Ukie right now. Will try in a bit. Pivotal may have it tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just look at 0z UKie, looks same almost lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z UKMET is well east of the 12z GFS and most models. 12z CMC/GDPS is like right in the middle of the two tracks. There is a westward trend to the 12z suite for sure, but the UKMET slp is quite a bit east. This is not settled I don't think. So the eastern envelope is still a miss to the east for everyone but extreme NE TN. The western envelop is a slp slightly west of the Apps. The eastern envelop is a slop tracking just east of Asheville. UKMET looks too weak FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: UKMET is well east of the GFS. CMC/GDPS is like right in the middle of the two tracks. Don't think the globals will have an agreement until the energy/trough begin to clear the Rockies..around 12z tomorrow..unless sampling over the NW as it comes ashore can help sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: Unless Chattanooga can get super lucky with lingering moisture, or as Holston alluded to earlier with a secondary low popping around Mississippi or Alabama, this is what Johnny thinks of snow in Chattanooga this Thursday. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk The storm seems to agree! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Don't think the globals will have an agreement until the energy/trough begin to clear the Rockies..around 12z tomorrow..unless sampling over the NW as it comes ashore can help sooner Shew. There are literally all options on the table from a whiff to a major winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Shew. There are literally all options on the table from a whiff to a major winter storm. Yeah, wouldnt want to be a met at MRX right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I understand their stance right now, alot easier to ramp up tommorow evening, than it would be to ramp down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, BuCoVaWx said: Hey guys. Another long time lurker here. I live in SW VA, Buchanan County to be exact, on the KY state line. Maybe you can help with a couple of questions. First, am I in the right forums lol. Seems this one is closer to me. Second, will Grundy, VA have any luck with this coming system. By luck I mean snow accumulation lol. Thanks in advance!! Yeah, you're in the right forum haha... Welcome aboard! It's good to have a fellow southwest Virginian in this neck of the woods! As for snowfall I would say things are looking fairly optimistic but there is a threat of the low pressure overrunning us and shifting the heaviest snowfall to our west. It's hard to say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I feel we have many changes still left to go. My guess would be a more amped final solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Euro is rolling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just looking at 500 vort maps...the 12z Euro looks very similar to its off-run at 6z through 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Through 39, looks very similar to 6z...slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Through 39, looks very similar to 6z...slower than the GFS. Maybe it’s starting to pick up the frontal slow down? Idk just an observation since all other models seem to be headed that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Euro pops the low over NETN and SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Seen worse from Euro...baby step better than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Euro barely budges...impressive to see back-to-back runs from 6z and 12z hold that steady after the other models moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: Seen worse from Euro...baby step better than 0z Those better be big baby steps as close as we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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