tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: The 75 corridor, especially north, has been pretty consistently in the game with each model run. If a stronger, more amplified solution like the NAM presents comes to fruition, you're in a very good spot. Edit to add: I'll echo the caveat @Carvers Gap mentioned - microclimate oddities do apply... This might be a great thing to consider for a new pinned thread at some point down the line (similar to the useful weather links). If we could dedicate a thread to various microclimates and the different types of systems that are affected by those areas............... it might become a great resource for new members coming on board in those areas and existing members also. Off topic, but just thought I'd throw this out there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z RGEM has a similar trend NW. In this scenario, NE TN gets a good thump, but if you look at the snow totals for this storm, you can seen the axis really sharpen and back west a bit. So looks like the short range "cone" is the spine of the Apps to just around Nashville. Prior, this had stopped at the Plateau. NE TN is on the easter envelope of this now - but a good run nonetheless but trends do matter at this stage - not a huge fan of trends right now for MBY. That said, the storm is still there...just backing west a bit. So, the likelihood of somebody getting snow on Christmas Eve is still there with chances for somebody in our forum area(to see a decent thump of snow) increasing at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If you live in NE TN(really all of E TN), not a trend you want to see from the NAM. Now, it is the NAM past 48 hours and it has a problem with over-amping systems. The slp is stronger with the NAM by several millibars. That in turn sharpens the storm and changes the angle into the region. Snow axis moved about 200 mi west in KY from eastern KY to middle KY. Exactly! Big trend West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Looks like I missed the thread naming fun while I was on my bike, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 FYI I will be driving a bit today and may not be able to post the Ukie or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 What does this all mean for N Al, NWGa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I wonder if there is a scenario where the trough could dig so much, that it could shift the precip axis from being N - S to more SSE - NNW? One thing I have consistently noticed in MRX's AFDs, is that they are very impressed with the forcing dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Through 42 hours, the GFS looks sharper and follows the trend of short range modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS digging slightly more...see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Through 42 hours, the GFS looks sharper and follows the trend of short range modeling. Just a hunch, but I think this will play better for the plateau areas toward middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegrassweather71 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Less than 48 hours to go, which model do we trust at this point? I know, loaded question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: What does this all mean for N Al, NWGa? I think you're kind of in the same boat as the rest of us, but with worse climo forcing the possibilities the wrong way. Not out of the game, but places N and NW have a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS is going to be a paste job for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We wanted that L.P. to develop and trend stronger and further south but, not overly so as far a strength. One bit of concern for portions of the area is the actual possibility of Blizzard criteria being reached ! Amazing after things looking rather benign. Powerful sharp arctic blasts have been known to spawn one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z GFS moves toward Euro with where it pops Low...WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hey guys. Another long time lurker here. I live in SW VA, Buchanan County to be exact, on the KY state line. Maybe you can help with a couple of questions. First, am I in the right forums lol. Seems this one is closer to me. Second, will Grundy, VA have any luck with this coming system. By luck I mean snow accumulation lol. Thanks in advance!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Surface accumulations are significantly down on this run. The westward trend continued. I think the spine of the Apps shredded the storm. I will say...one more jog westward, and this becomes a middle TN storm (and maybe major) on the GFS. The synoptics still look good, but a low directly over the apps just messes with dynamics to no end. My expectations are low for MBY on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: We wanted that L.P. to develop and trend stronger and further south but, not overly so as far a strength. One bit of concern for portions of the area is the actual possibility of Blizzard criteria being reached ! Amazing after things looking rather benign. Powerful sharp arctic blasts have been known to spawn one . The trend on the GFS has taken the snow axis from central PA to eastern OH(during the past four runs: edit). Big changes and all westward at this point. I suspect the westward job stops during the next 1-2 runs if this follows the pattern of every other storm this winter. 48-96 hours have had big jogs westward and then revert back eastward at some point. Storm still looks health, but the angle of the storm is up for grabs right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said: Hey guys. Another long time lurker here. I live in SW VA, Buchanan County to be exact, on the KY state line. Maybe you can help with a couple of questions. First, am I in the right forums lol. Seems this one is closer to me. Second, will Grundy, VA have any luck with this coming system. By luck I mean snow accumulation lol. Thanks in advance!! I think you are in the right place. @BlunderStorm is up your way. I’m stoked to have another poster from that area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Let's hope we don't wind up with an 2004 scenario and the stronger, west trend continues and the areas west get pummeled while we end with a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said: Hey guys. Another long time lurker here. I live in SW VA, Buchanan County to be exact, on the KY state line. Maybe you can help with a couple of questions. First, am I in the right forums lol. Seems this one is closer to me. Second, will Grundy, VA have any luck with this coming system. By luck I mean snow accumulation lol. Thanks in advance!! @BuCoVaWx Welcome! You're definitely in the right forum! I think like most of us in the NETN/SWVA area, the model trend of the storm backing to the NW is concerning. That said I think we're still in the game for accumulation. The next few model runs will be very telling. If the NW trend continues, then I'll be concerned for my back yard for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Thank you guys for the help! I've lurked around for years, just figured it was time to join in on the conversation! Since I've been old enough to remember I've had an "unhealthy" obsession for weather lol. I'm learning a lot just from what I've read on here over the years. As far as these storms go, it really does seem the models want to do the NW jog when it comes within a couple days of game time. Hopefully we can all get a little bit of Christmas magic this year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z GEFS at 54 Ioses the lee side low cluster. Looks like the slp may run west of the Apps or the energy to our north is being modeled stronger. My guess is the spine of the Apps is washing out the solution. Again, one more trend and this is a middle TN storm. Just depends on when the trend stops, but it has been pronounced for about four runs. Storm has sharpened which means it is less positive tilt and more neutral by the time it hits middle/east TN. 12z is on the left and 6z on the right... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BuCoVaWx said: Thank you guys for the help! I've lurked around for years, just figured it was time to join in on the conversation! Since I've been old to enough to remember I've had an "unhealthy" obsession for weather lol. I'm learning a lot just from what I've read on here over the years. As far as these storms go, it really does seem the models want to do the NW jog when it comes within a couple days of game time. Hopefully we can all get a little bit of Christmas magic this year. Welcome to the forum!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like I missed the thread naming fun while I was on my bike, lol! Feel free to add more suggestions brotha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Good grief . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 But man, the CMC just went freakin' bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 This is worse than watching a UT football game. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z CMC 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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