kvskelton Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: O Fortuna, velut Luna statu variablilis semper crescis aut decrescis nive detestabilis SREF nunc obdurat et tunc curat ludet mentis aciem Good one Holston! I knew that class in Latin would come in handy one day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Still snowing at hour 60 in parts of the area on the RGEM. Yeah, some of those bands really add up where they cross at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Heaviest snow axis has shifted slightly SE on the RGEM. Good run. Held serve pretty much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah, some of those bands really add up where they cross at Not betting on it. Mood flakes FTW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z GEFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Kmrx going with latest sref. Saw a conversation with Ricky Mathews (wcyb Met,),on Twitter. Ricky brought up the earlier 5.3" plume for Knox. They rebuttled with latest run downtrend I guess why they're going as low on totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 GFS runs low up thru Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z GFS at 42. Low is nearly in Upstate SC. Flow is flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Slightly worse than 18z on the GFS. Day before yesterday all the American models had a bad trend and it bounced back, possibly will again or maybe it will get worse. I'd guess we will see changes all the way up until 12z or 18z tomorrow. Maybe even later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Track is good...just need more precip. Seems like models have shifted slightly SE - minus the NAM which is way on the western periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'll ride the RGEM into battle all the way. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z CMC. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seems like the trend at 0z is to lower the angle of entry into the forum area. We saw the runs all day sharpen up the trough. The trough at 0z (absent the NAM) looks more neutral. Also, take a look at the top of the snow axis over the GL region. Toggle back a run, and you can see it "lean" to the east. That allows more snowfall on the SW side of the storm and into more of the forum area to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 0z CMC is a pretty massive winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Canadian just slams the eastern half of the state as Carvers noted. Absolute best case scenario stuff here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian just slams the eastern half of the state as Carvers noted. Absolute best case scenario stuff here. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Even after time stamp on the map above, there is an upslope component that adds more to the NE TN and SW VA areas. Absolute best case scenario for sure...Cold rushes into the storm earlier and the angle of approach is improved. Chattanooga, portions of Alabama, and even northern Georgia get into the action. Western NC can score one of two ways...change-over and/or upslope afterwards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian just slams the eastern half of the state as Carvers noted. Absolute best case scenario stuff here. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 One thing I noticed on the doomcast HRRR 0z is the division of the front into two waves that hit hours apart as the day progresses. How and why is beyond my understanding but one quick look at the NAM 3km in comparison doesn't show that present. Perhaps something to look out for. (Both screensnips taken at 15z) Check it out yourself on the models. EDIT: Adding to my confusion 6 hours prior and earlier looking at the presentation of the front with 2m temps it appears stronger and more progressive than the NAM 3km. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This is probably banter, but it's related to this system. MRX is going to have a 1 hour twitter chat tomorrow at 7:00 PM EST to answer questions about the upcoming system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z Euro is rolling. The 0z UKMET has somewhat upped totals east and north of Knoxville for pretty much the totality of the storm. It has been the weakest of all solutions for the past several runs. Since last night, it has slowly inched upward into a formidable storm to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Those mountain waves though, whatta ya think @Math/Met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Euro popped the low a bit earlier. Gonna be big for NE areas most likely. It's on the east side of guidance right now though which is not a common place for it to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Euro was better for say Knoxville than the GFS. Slower with the cold by a bit and doesn't have the back side energy like the other models. Could be because it's further East with the frontal lp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Basic synopsis: Euro/UKIE furthest east. But the Euro is better for all of the Eastern valley as a whole than the GFS. GFS/NAM/HRRR not as much moisture return. Better for eastern middle Tennessee HRRR and Gfs/NAM far NE areas but not as good as the Euro for Knoxville and south down the 75 corridor. GGem/RGem would be our new best friend if they verify. Big winter storm for the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z Euro accumulation map is almost identical to 18z in E TN w a slight tweak upward over western Knox Co. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 0z Euro did move the snow axis over the GL ever so slightly eastward. Have seen similar trends on most modeling tonight. That finite detail might help areas to the southwest of the current cutoff if the trend continues. Think the overall trend has been more neutral tilt which prevents the slp over western NC and/or the spine of the Apps to pull further westward. Been good. See you all tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Those mountain waves though, whatta ya think @Math/Met? I’m definitely following the mountain waves. It should be a pretty good event. Mountain waves and snow within a 24 hour period... I can’t ask for much better than that. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now