John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS). I don't remember if we've had one in the last several years. The models have had multiple upgrades since then so I'm not sure how they may handle it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Special weather statement from NWS Morristown-3:21ET. here is the jest of it. A Strong Storm System will Effect the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians Thursday and Christmas Day... A strong storm system will move across the area Thursday and Christmas Day. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected area-wide for late Wednesday night and Thursday with Windy conditions across the Mountains and Foothills of far east Tennessee. Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers will linger through at least Friday morning. Very cold air will build into the area on Thursday, and linger through Friday night. Rain will change to snow Thursday afternoon with a brief period of moderate to heavy snow possible, especially across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Snow showers will linger through at least Friday morning. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and far east Tennessee Mountains. For the Plateau, parts of the central valley, and southwest North Carolina, snowfall of 1 inch is possible. Travel late Thursday and Thursday night may become hazardous with snow and ice covered roadways, especially across bridges and overpasses. The very cold airmass along with breezy west to northwest winds will produce dangerous wind chills from 5 below zero to 5 above zero across the higher terrain for late Thursday through Friday night. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest updates on this situation. $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ017&warncounty=TNC163&firewxzone=TNZ017&local_place1=4 Miles WSW Colonial Heights TN&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=36.4627&lon=-82.5712#.X-Jpw8Rtkyc.link Special weather statement from NWS Morristown Looks like they are still rolling exclusively with the Euro/UKIE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: Looks like they are still rolling exclusively with the Euro/UKIE. Yup, Can’t say I blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TNZ017&warncounty=TNC163&firewxzone=TNZ017&local_place1=4 Miles WSW Colonial Heights TN&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=36.4627&lon=-82.5712#.X-Jpw8Rtkyc.link Special weather statement from NWS Morristown Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI. I bet within the next 24 hours they pull the trigger on watches, warnings, etc, probably just waiting to get a slightly clearer view of where the frozen precipitation is gonna end up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI. I'd guess tomorrow morning if the models don't lose it, they will issue winter products for the mountains and SWVA. SPS for other areas. I got 4 inches in 4 hours last December and never even got a WWA. Knox got at least 2 and didn't either. They are always very reluctant with WWP outside the mountains and it often works out for them but sometimes doesn't. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 At some point they should start going with the short range, at least to some degree alongside the Euro. Surprising they've not already started going with the Nam somewhat. Could be, the pretty sizable outcome difference and the Forecasters belief in the Euro/UK solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Interesting Update but you would think they would at least relent and lay down some winter weather advisories north and east of TRI. Still too early for WWAs. Even if they decide on warning-criteria for the mtns, a watch isn't likely until the overnight/AM at best. We won't see WWA or WSW products until tomorrow PM at best, and possibly not until the mid-evening update or overnight/AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The point forecast at 2500 feet here says less than 1/2 inch of snow possible. For downtown Knoxville it says less than 1 inch possible. No idea how they are seeing the grids unless it's a UKIE/Euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS backed down a bit from 12z. Runs will vary from here on out, especially as they are about to leave the global wheelhouse and be more in line with the meso model time frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow.I've always been partial to the RGEM it seemed to be in years past better at sniffing out trailing pieces of energy. I think it did a better job at sniffing out the trailing energy that made the event at the start of the month over perform for most folks.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If it’s the same I’m looking at, looks like mrx’s map is still the one they generated early this am. Their disco still reflects that, I would expect a more thorough update with the 3am product. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GEFS Snow Mean. Lot of the "finger" looks, so I think it is really going to depend where those banding features setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 After looking I think the MRX grids were likely generated off the 48hr 18z HRRR. That is definitely the inhouse model I just saw WVLT run. It was literally the exact depiction from the HRRR for Thursday. Which suggests very little in the way of snow but the HRRR at 48 is like looking at the GFS at 300. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I've always been partial to the RGEM it seemed to be in years past better at sniffing out trailing pieces of energy. I think it did a better job at sniffing out the trailing energy that made the event at the start of the month over perform for most folks. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events. These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 57 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events. These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby. Yeah, used to happen regularly back in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z Euro FWIW. Not much difference between it and 12z, as far as I can tell at this resolution: Winter panels will probably need another 30 minutes before they're out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z winter panels: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro FWIW. Not much difference between it and 12z, as far as I can tell at this resolution: Winter panels will probably need another 30 minutes before they're out Was a hair east of 12z(barely) in both snow axis and slp. Slightly more snow in NE TN is reflected by the shift. Overall, very similar. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 PBP is the way. 21z SREF is, so far, sharper with the trough, if not deeper (15z vs 21z). Sharpest depiction of the trough yet: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: PBP is the way. 21z SREF is, so far, sharper with the trough, if not deeper (15z vs 21z). Sharpest depiction of the trough yet: Hey I’ve been looking for the SREF all over. I think the SREF probabilities on weather.cod.edu may be a little delayed and such. Where do you get your from? Perhaps you could post a link. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said: Hey I’ve been looking for the SREF all over. I think the SREF probabilities on weather.cod.edu may be a little delayed and such. Where do you get your from? Perhaps you could post a link. Thanks https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2020122121&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21z SREF with a big shift east with the LP..not a good run for south of 40 in the valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1" mean only makes it to TYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN) That doesn't bode well for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I dropped from 50% greater than 4" to 10%...40 north is 25%...NE TN 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Did the SREF have a late blooming low? I would guess we will see ups and downs over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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