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AMZ8990
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5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

You gonna try to get up to carvers gap tonight or tomorrow if you can make The drive?

LOL. I  thought about it - very briefly.  By the time it starts snowing there...not sure I can make it back to TRI.  Might try to swing up there Saturday if roads permit.  I suspect(if this verifies), they may have near blizzard conditions overnight and into early tomorrow.  I have great respect for how bad the weather can get there...My scout troop (the year prior to me joining way back when) went up to the first bald to camp.  There are stories that they couldn't hold their tents down(tents today are much more suitable for higher winds).  About halfway through the night in howling winds and rain, they packed up and walked back to Carvers Gap to whatever transportation they had - not sure if they slept in the van or came home that night.  These were pretty savvy kids and wouldn't normally pack-up...I have been up there a few times after big snow storms - waist deep drifts type stuff.  White knuckle stuff coming back down.  The road up to the gap(not sure if you have been) is on the shady side of the mountain.  So, it gets super icy.  

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11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL. I  thought about it - very briefly.  By the time it starts snowing there...not sure I can make it back to TRI.  Might try to swing up there Saturday if roads permit.  I suspect(if this verifies), they may have near blizzard conditions overnight and into early tomorrow.  I have great respect for how bad the weather can get there...My scout troop (the year prior to me joining way back when) went up to the first bald to camp.  There are stories that they couldn't hold their tents down(tents today are much more suitable for higher winds).  About halfway through the night in howling winds and rain, they packed up and walked back to Carvers Gap to whatever transportation they had - not sure if they slept in the van or came home that night.  These were pretty savvy kids and wouldn't normally pack-up...I have been up there a few times after big snow storms - waist deep drifts type stuff.  White knuckle stuff coming back down.  The road up to the gap(not sure if you have been) is on the shady side of the mountain.  So, it gets super icy.  

I figured it crossed your mind that’s why I wondered, haha.  I’d probably be tempted too.  And no I haven’t ever had the pleasure of getting up there, hopefully one day I can.  Definitely looks like it’s gonna get dicey up there tonight!  Can’t imagine being up there during a scenario like your story, little too close for comfort for my blood!!  Do they have a webcam up there by chance?  Would be cool to see what’s going on up there during the storm 

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MRX update...9:49AM

.DISCUSSION...

The main change for the morning update will be to end the Wind
Advisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show wind
gusts falling below criteria in the last few hours.

The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track,
as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow starting
in the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM,
and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone,
there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could be
high, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bands
producing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and some
low level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnow
in NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR.

Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in the
hours after the transition to snow. The forecast snow
accumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at this
time.
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MRX update...9:49AM

.DISCUSSION...The main change for the morning update will be to end the WindAdvisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show windgusts falling below criteria in the last few hours.The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track,as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow startingin the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM,and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone,there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could behigh, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bandsproducing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and somelow level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnowin NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR.Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in thehours after the transition to snow. The forecast snowaccumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at thistime.

I’ll take 3-6 hours of lake effect type snow banding.

 

 

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17z HRRR is backing down a hair, but yeah...we roll with that right now!!!

I’m north of 40 and east of 75 in knox co. Mods have stayed about the same for me and matches up with the Euro around the 4-5” mark. I know we usually cut the totals in 1/2 but I think the high ratio from the cold pool might make some of that back up.

 

 

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