Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 You can start to see the energy at the bottom of the trough doing it's thaaaang: The first image is the SPC's mesoscale analysis of 500 mb potential vorticity. The next image is the upper level WV from GOES 16. On that one, in real time, you can see: the red line is the energy at the bottom, the backing of the flow in response to the energy digging and tilting (arrows and the back line), and finally, what we want to look for, moisture being lifted back up, over N. MS (circle). Sorry it is so fast. We are waiting on a second piece of energy to sorta, schmaybe phase, with the bottom one, to back the flow a bit more, and get some more lift, before the deep moisture runs away: RGEM (because, why not, I'm riding it into the sunset today, might as well go for my best case scenario), says that should start to happen around 2PM Eastern, 1PM Central today. So just in time for a Bonanza Christmas episode on MeTv today. Obligatory RGEM image: 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, John1122 said: RGEM keeps on flexing like Hulk Hogan. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I may have missed it, but did anyone see this from MRX overnight? "With the strong signal for CSI, banding is expected and would not be surprised to even see a lightning strike with stronger bands across far NE TN and SW VA." 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 MRX getting aggressive on snowfall totals overnight! Must be looking at banding potential. The map they have looks nice for the eastern valley and their zfp grids look nice. For TRI they have a total snow accumulation of 3-9in! For Hamblen Co they have 2-6in!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Quote Because temperatures will drop so quickly and snow rates are expected to be between 1 and 2 inches per hour, travel will deteriorate rapidly between 21z and 0z. With snow probs indicating a 70-100 percent chance of 1 inch or greater accumulation across the central valley through NE TN and SW VA, a large portion of the forecast area should wake up to a White Christmas on Friday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 IT’S HAPPENING! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I may have missed it, but did anyone see this from MRX overnight? "With the strong signal for CSI, banding is expected and would not be surprised to even see a lightning strike with stronger bands across far NE TN and SW VA." I somehow missed this. Thanks for posting it. Crazy dynamics, hope someone cashes in on this possibility. It would probably be the only Christmas Eve thunder-snow leading to a white Christmas in recorded TN history. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 When you couple the dynamics/orographic lift/and models typically having a hard time "seeing" low level moisture...think a lot more of the area may bust higher after the initial thump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Please don't use that word 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Not very often to see our area hatched for heavy snow possible! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, McMinnWx said: IT’S HAPPENING! Are you Ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kasper said: Are you Ready? I LIKE TO ROCK! DO YOU LIKE TO ROCK? LET’S ROCK! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I may have missed it, but did anyone see this from MRX overnight? "With the strong signal for CSI, banding is expected and would not be surprised to even see a lightning strike with stronger bands across far NE TN and SW VA." You're talkin to the front wearin’, arctic airmass wearin’, road freezin’, thundersnow dealin’, leeside low ridin’, jet stream flyin’ son of a gun!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z NAM is running. Both the 12k and 3K look good. Overall setup is still the same. 12K is slightly less. The 3k NAM is pretty amazing to watch. Some of us started doing this when pixels might be 50-100k. So seeing a storm in 3K is pretty awesome. Looks like it held for you Knoxvvile folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looks like the NAM(3K and 12k) are a very slight tick west of their previous runs. I like that trend west, because I don't like seeing storms begin to slide eastward on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 System looks to already be out of Crossville (hours earlier than expected) with temperatures still in the 40s. Looks like we will be lucky to even get a flale here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3k Nam wanting to bump up Knoxville to warning category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Check out the latest HRRR. Really popped the low early compared to its previous runs...very interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: System looks to already be out of Crossville (hours earlier than expected) with temperatures still in the 40s. Looks like we will be lucky to even get a flale here. According to the HRRR and RAP Banding redevelops in your area with the development of the leeside low in a couple hours. Aint over yet. Now... if the banding doesn't develop then the entire eastern valley is screwed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It’s got us (McMinn) with 2+ on the latest HRRR. Will MRX drop anymore WWAs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Noticed this in MRX discussion: Another spoke of cold air aloft rotates across the area during the afternoon Christmas Day. Scattered snow showers and/or flurries expected across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. An additional light accumulations possible, generally less than 1/2 inch. This is separate from the banding depicted on the models after the main moisture pulls away, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 29 minutes ago, Reb said: Check out the latest HRRR. Really popped the low early compared to its previous runs...very interesting Yeah, that upped the totals over the areas some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Noticed this in MRX discussion: Another spoke of cold air aloft rotates across the area during the afternoon Christmas Day. Scattered snow showers and/or flurries expected across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. An additional light accumulations possible, generally less than 1/2 inch. This is separate from the banding depicted on the models after the main moisture pulls away, correct? Great catch. You can see it on the 500 vort map. Never would have noticed it on the 3k NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Great catch. You can see it on the 500 vort map. Never would have noticed it on the 3k NAM. Yeah upon closer inspection it looks like the 500 vortex map correlates with what is happening on the low cloud fraction map, with some clouds crashing against the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z RGEM looks like it is super similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: 12z RGEM looks like it is super similar... It has not wavered in days seems like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Good luck guys and gals! Hope the system over-performs for all of you in the crosshairs today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hello Cleveland Tn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Kasper said: How does the Kuchera look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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