PowellVolz Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hmm... "Will update WSW and SPS products shortly"Sent from my SM-G965U using TapatalkIt was just an extension of the products. No changes were made. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 With the Euro and UKIE pending. 0z GFS/18z Euro/0z HRRR similar with frozen precip shield further West. 0zRGEM/0zGGEM/3zRAP similar with larger frozen precip field. 0z NAM nest (NAM/HRF) similar eastern solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 One observation I will make is that the line of convection seems to be advancing to the East very quickly. Hopefully that can slow down somewhat. I’ve seen in many cases in the past where the line of convection can race ahead east of the mountains and cutoff the flow coming off the Gulf. That is where the Lee side low would help us out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, 1234snow said: One observation I will make is that the line of convection seems to be advancing to the East very quickly. Hopefully that can slow down somewhat. I’ve seen in many cases in the past where the line of convection can race ahead east of the mountains and cutoff the flow coming off the Gulf. That is where the Lee side low would help us out. Seems much faster than predicted... UKMET...pretty good step back which might reflect that concern. UK has admittedly been consistently the weakest of most modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb0120 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Correct me if I am wrong here, everyone. The ECMWF is the only model left to come in for 00z, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Jb0120 said: Correct me if I am wrong here, everyone. The ECMWF is the only model left to come in for 00z, correct? Yes, it usually begins it's run at 12:50 so we should be wrapped up for 0z at 1:00. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Christmas Eve 0z Euro is rolling.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Upon initial glance the Euro seems like a marginal improvement. Pretty good imo. The leeside low being slightly deeper than 12z is likely the cause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looking like the Euro will hold serve. Haven't seen accumulations, but evolution of the system appears very similar. Only thing of concern, the actual weather on the ground appears much quicker (as 1234 noted) than modeling is grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Euro looks like it may have backed off from 18z but I don't have ratio'd maps. It was an improvement from 12z for me at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It's all NOWCAST from here folks! Best of luck to everyone! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Kuchera Euro 0z... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 A quick update on the mountain wave event with this system. Camp Creek has gusted to around 70mph so far. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Kuchera Euro 0z... Not quite as heavy as 18z but moved the blue about 25 miles further West it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looking like the Euro will hold serve. Haven't seen accumulations, but evolution of the system appears very similar. Only thing of concern, the actual weather on the ground appears much quicker (as 1234 noted) than modeling is grasping. Glancing at the 0z suite, looks like the ARW and HRRR were the only ones to get the front placement right vs current ground conditions. All the globals and NAM were slower vs reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 00z Euro cut about an inch off my totals vs 18z, but overall similar setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 HRRR is rocking around 4PM along the 75 corridor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Rainfall starting here as of now. Those are some wicked winds coming from the south! Had a gust over 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Would have really liked to see the 0z Euro hold steady vs 18z (Knox/south)...MRX prob won't change anything as far as the advisories/warnings (except maybe move the warning a county to the west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 On the HRRR at 11am/10c tomorrow its 46 degrees in central Scott County. 20 miles away in Central Fentress it's 32 degrees. That's a potent drop over a short distance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 06z HRRR at 33. Still convective snow showers dotting Tennessee at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 06z NAM moved everything about 25 miles further West. Knoxville for instance want from 2 to 3 inches. My area went from around 1 inch to around 2.5. Holston in MoCo went from blanked to around 1.5 inches. That's without anything convective yet. The NAM 12k just doesn't see it like the other models but appears to have a bit breaking out in Eastern Middle early Christmas morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3k NAM is going to be more aggressive with the initial snow and has the convection captured in the Mid-state popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3k NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 RGEM keeps on flexing like Hulk Hogan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 MRX basically bumped totals for the entire region 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Wonder what the models and MRX are seeing, I swear this system looks like it's moving way to fast or am I wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Wonder what the models and MRX are seeing, I swear this system looks like it's moving way to fast or am I This area will progress quickly. The reason Eastern areas see snow initially is a low will develop on the front and basically stop it until the low passes. The rest is from convective snow bands from a trailing upper level disturbance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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