bluegrassweather71 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kentucky said: good eye, snow totals doubled for London/Corbin. This is news I like to hear. What are the various models saying? I'm at work and unable to really get a good look at maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z Nam is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z NAM Low placement in the upper midwest is further south than 12z at 24 and is seemingly slower. Will see what that does downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: 18z NAM Low placement in the upper midwest is further south than 12z. Will see what that does downstream. Tail is digger a little deeper...NAM keeps doing this in upcoming runs, will be close to the gulf lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Those SREF plumes have trended beefier for TYS all day. Currently have a mean of over 5 inches! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hard to tell but looks like it is trying to get something going near LA/MS border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Those SREF plumes have trended beefier for TYS all day. Currently have a mean of over 5 inches! And one that shows 18 inches! Some of those are on steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Weenie Rule # 42 - don't ever get sucked in by the SREF plumes. It's almost always a trap. Christmas Eve thunder in the morning, followed by snow in the afternoon? That's what the NAM at 18z looks like for parts of east TN. 2 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Man, the NAM is just amped on that run. Nice run for NE TN in terms of Kuchera totals, but wouldn't trust that model as far as I could throw it at this range! LOL. As tnweathernut said...thunder, lightning, and snow all in the same day. 2020 for ya right there. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The NAM is still showing the accumulation fingers to some extent and they aren't elevation driven. This run the finger of lighter snow goes from Crossville to Jamestown, two of the 10 snowiest towns in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 RGEM Rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: 18z Nam: That's the 12z lol..here's the 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z RGEM didn't dig quite as much vs 12z so it edged the front a hair more east w/lp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 But close to Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 RGEM is probably the model we most want to see come true at this point. Larger snow shield and the 2nd spoke of energy just keeps snow showers around for a long while, especially souhern middle areas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Interstesting piece in MRX AFD: Finally, the strength of the front is impressive, and will result in the potential for banding. The GFS and NAM both indicate negative EPV in the 700-500mb layer which would also support the potential for banding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Still snowing over the area at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Neighbors gets 6"...5 miles down road gets a dusting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: Interstesting piece in MRX AFD: Finally, the strength of the front is impressive, and will result in the potential for banding. The GFS and NAM both indicate negative EPV in the 700-500mb layer which would also support the potential for banding That's the fingers! The models won't place them in the same area two runs in a row but totals will be heavier under them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Still snowing over the area at this point. West Tn getting done dirty by the models!! In my kayne west voice ”how could they be so heartless” lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Something that strikes me, is the strength of the NW flow on that RGEM map...not often you see a model have the setup to take NW flow all the way to the SC coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Final RGEM total. as the snow finally leaves the area around 8pm Christmas evening on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Interstesting piece in MRX AFD: Finally, the strength of the front is impressive, and will result in the potential for banding. The GFS and NAM both indicate negative EPV in the 700-500mb layer which would also support the potential for banding Banding is great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: West Tn getting done dirty by the models!! Lol I wish you guys were in on it too. The pattern at least looks loaded and we may have another thread in a few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: I wish you guys were in on it too. The pattern at least looks loaded and we may have another thread in a few days. Me too, I sincerely hope everyone else scores big time though! I enjoy it when everybody in the forum gets involved cause the discussions are great! I’ve got my eyes on that 1st of the year timeframe though for sure! The possibilities with the upcoming pattern look awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How strong are the winds progged to be with this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4+ probability via WPC 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: How strong are the winds progged to be with this ? May have a few hours somewhere around the realm of 12-15 MPH sustained intermittently with maybe some gusts in the 20s. That's the vibe I got from the NAM and RGEM at least. Per usual the eastern valley alongside the base of the blue ridge is a little more impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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