Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Kuchera from the 12z Euro has nearly identical placement of snow axis in our sub-forum but beefier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Kasper said: Those better be big baby steps as close as we are Lol, that doesn't come until 00z/12z timeframe...one of the two will fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Side-by-side of 12z and 0z Kuchera amounts. New run is on the left. 6z was a slight improvement from 0z. 12z was a slight improvement from 6z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Watching the weather in East Tennessee is like watching Tennessee Football, wait all week to see them play with great anticipation, only to be slapped back to reality, Yep the weather forecasting sucks and so do we! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Side-by-side of 12z and 0z. New run is on the left. 6z was a slight improvement from 0z. 12z was a slight improvement from 6z. That’s so close just pull back to the west a little more and we would be golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Here is the 12z Canadian Kuchera compared to 0z 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Side-by-side of 12z and 0z. New run is on the left. 6z was a slight improvement from 0z. 12z was a slight improvement from 6z. Considerably better for the eastern part of Middle TN to the Plateau as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is the 12z Canadian Kuchera compared to 0z I would be elated if even 1/3rd of what the Canadian is showing came to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Remember, new is on the left. 12z GFS operational compared to 6z. Looking back, the GFS "should" have been stronger. Low placement was decent, but precip was lacking once the changeover occurred. That is a legit option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Remember, new is on the left. 12z GFS operational compared to 6z. Looking back, the GFS "should" have been stronger. Low placement was decent, but precip was lacking once the changeover occurred. That is a legit option. but this is also a bit more generous to those in eastern middle Tennessee. Would be nice to get more on our forum into the "schmaybe" games! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z operational scorecard: UKMET: NE TN scraper but otherwise a whiff. GFS: Plateau and elevation dependent in TN. Eastern half of KY scores but less than previous runs. Euro: Consistent and beefs up numbers. CMC: Ohio...wow. High end of probability and a bit of an outlier. Trends: Westward jog on GFS and NAM. Others are fairly similar including RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: but this is also a bit more generous to those in eastern middle Tennessee. Would be nice to get more on our forum into the "schmaybe" games! For sure!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro goes up...GFS comes down.. (With amounts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, Kasper said: That’s so close just pull back to the west a little more and we would be golden! I think the potential is there for a big thump for somebody. Timing a strong cold front which is chasing into a line of precip from the West is tough. Ideally, we would want the slp to slow as it forms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, BNAwx said: Considerably better for the eastern part of Middle TN to the Plateau as well. Yes, and the one thing about the Euro is that is pretty consistent right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just browsing the Euro...weak slp pressure forms in east-central Alabama. It moves NNE to extreme NE TN. Meanwhile a very weak area of slp forms near Charleston, SC, and moves along the coast. That feature is not on the GFS which I can find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If that were the case would that low forming over near the coast feed atlantic moisture into the low moving up through NE Tennessee? Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just browsing the Euro...weak slp pressure forms in east-central Alabama. It moves NNE to extreme NE TN. Meanwhile a very weak area of slp forms near Charleston, SC, and moves along the coast. That feature is not on the GFS which I can find. I think it’s going to be a wild 24hrs. A mod will drop all the snow while another one goes crazy but it gets somewhat sorted out by 12z tomorrow. If we can get the NAM to come back a little east I will be feeling better. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, PowellVolz said: I think it’s going to be a wild 24hrs. A mod will drop all the snow while another one goes crazy but it gets somewhat sorted out by 12z tomorrow. If we can get the NAM to come back a little east I will be feeling better. . Which it "should" trend towards(the NAM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If that were the case would that low forming over near the coast feed atlantic moisture into the low moving up through NE Tennessee? Sent from my Pixel 3 using TapatalkI personally think it would rob us but you never know. Seen it go both ways. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, uncheelfan said: If that were the case would that low forming over near the coast feed atlantic moisture into the low moving up through NE Tennessee? Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Looks too weak and the system is moving quite quickly. But...it might be enough to back the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 So the low forming is kind of like a miller Bish set up?Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Speaking from experience, being in the bullseye across most modeling for a week straight virtually never works out for me. That's where I've been on almost every model run except the last couple of Euro and UK runs for about 8 days, this event hit the GFS at 228 hours. Don't know if it will be right but except for yesterday it's been rock steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Which it "should" trend towards(the NAM). One of them will make a move and the others will follow. Seems like it happens a lot of times around 3 days out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 So the low forming is kind of like a miller Bish set up?Sent from my Pixel 3 using TapatalkI don’t think we want that. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, uncheelfan said: So the low forming is kind of like a miller Bish set up? Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk I don't think so. I think this is more like the base of that trough forms two waves. One runs up through western NC and then another forms right along the coast. These powerhouse cold fronts have all kinds of energy. Short story...I don't see energy transfer to the coast. Now, there may be some energy transfer from one side of the apps to another at some point, especially further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 No we definitely don't want that for sure. I'm just really interested in where the lee side low forms and if the models keep it more on the eastern side of the apps and not get shredded by the mountains!!!!Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 EPS mean...some improvement from 6z. I don't think ensembles have caught up to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We’ll see if it happens or not, but based on the SREF H 5 panels, I suspect the NAMs will shift a bit west again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: We’ll see if it happens or not, but based on the SREF H 5 panels, I suspect the NAMs will shift a bit west again. good eye, snow totals doubled for London/Corbin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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