BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12z and 0z comparison. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I honestly think the Euro will either get better or the GFS worse by 12z tomorrow. I don't think they will remain that far apart in timing as we work inside D4 towards D3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Overall, I feel like the precip was further out in front of the actual cold air. Was super close to a cold chasing rain event. That said, I think the lift once this system hits the Plateau may give the backside of this a chance to change over to snow. Very similar run to 18z. Also, very good chance the Euro is dragging its heels a bit. See you all tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: I honestly think the Euro will either get better or the GFS worse by 12z tomorrow. I don't think they will remain that far apart in timing as we work inside D4 towards D3. Something interesting to watch..go to hr 90 on the 0z GFS/Euro (Pivotal) at 500...and run a model trend. The GFS is far more consistent than the Euro (jumps all over the place every other run)...past was always other way around. Whatever upgrades was done to the Euro, I'm starting to wonder if it was a step backwards...was same during hurricane season. Either GEFs is just in another ballpark or the King has been dethroned lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, TellicoWx said: Something interesting to watch..go to hr 90 on the 0z GFS/Euro (Pivotal) at 500...and run a model trend. The GFS is far more consistent than the Euro (jumps all over the place every other run)...past was always other way around. Whatever upgrades was done to the Euro, I'm starting to wonder if it was a step backwards...was same during hurricane season. Either GEFs is just in another ballpark or the King has been dethroned lol The Euro has the best chance of eventually being right because it's showed just about every solution from heavy snow to nothing over the past 3 days. It does seem to be having issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro has the best chance of eventually being right because it's showed just about every solution from heavy snow to nothing over the past 3 days. It does seem to be having issues. If you run the same loop at hour 6 on the Euro (tried it the past couple systems to see how it's doing), the hour 60-78 window it seems to work the "kinks" out..so I would agree we should have alot of answers (one way or the other by 0z tomorrow) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 06z was better for some, a little worse for others. Not sure why it keeps showing the blank spot in NE Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The NAM was just a blank for everyone that run, but the NAM beyond 48 hours leaves a lot to be desired. The RGEM didn't look too bad, but it's not likely all that reliable beyond 48 either. The RGEM at 84, coming down pretty good still in the Eastern half of the valley, pink/purple level snow showing up imby and over Crossville at this time with flakes flying nearly back to Nashville still, rain in the very NE corner of Johnson County at this hour still accounting for no snow falling there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GEFS, all 20 members show at least 2 inches over some parts of the valley region, a few block busters skew the mean upwards a little and the 6+ area in the Knox/Jefferson/Sevier remained. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Thanks to all for the awesome posts overnight! Special thank you to @Stovepipe. I laughed more at that picture than I have at anything on here since the @PowellVolz "Chicken in Doghouse" gif (patent pending). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Energy looks RGEMish on the 6z Dr. Schmaybe Trying to pinch off a piece of energy at the bottom of the trough and go negative, ever so slightly: Digging the bottom of the trough deeper by a couple hundred miles, to my eye. Precip. map isn't out yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 We can do it the old fashiond way until we get winter panels: 3hr precip accum.: 850 temps: Looks like the 850 front hits the eastern plateau around Noon Christmas Eve and makes it to the mts by 6 PM. I would say it spreads a general .25 - .3 (maybe more in extreme NE areas) in that window. Keep in mind, if you are looking at these gifs, the precip one shows the past 3hrs of precip, so you have to look at the the temps at the later time stamp and guestimate a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Here are the winter panels. Kuchera ratios aren't available to me for the 6z Euro and 18z Euro. I suspect the accums below would be a bit (maybe not much though) higher with frigid 850s. Also keep in mind it is still snowing in NE sections past the end of the 6z Euro's run: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Great disco overnight guys, I’m loving the discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 MRX has released a hazardous wx outlook for two events, freezing fog this morning and the storm which we are tracking on Christmas Eve. Here is the morning disco... A trough will be dropping SE out of the Canadian Rockies to the northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, and deepen as a strong jet moves around the base of it. A dual jet structure develops on Wednesday night with a streak over KY/OH and another aligned W-E across the deep South, which produces strong upper divergence and QG forcing over our area in the 09-15Z Thu time frame. Heavy rainfall may be a concern during this time. Another concern will be how quickly cold air moves in behind the frontogenesis zone and whether it will happen quickly enough for a change to snow before moisture and deep lift exit. The forecast will have some changeover to snow only in the mountains Thursday morning. With strong cold advection through the day, temperatures will be falling through the afternoon. Precip chances will also be falling as drier air aloft builds in, but with steepening lapse rates, some scattered rain or snow showers will be possible. The upper trough axis will move over the area Thursday night, bringing extremely cold air aloft that will further steepen lapse rates and increase the coverage of snow showers in the evening, continuing into Friday. GEFS shows an 850 mb temperature anomaly that is 20 degrees below normal, so highs on Friday are only expected to be in the 20s for northern sections, with lower 30s central and south and possibly in the teens in the mountains. A 30 kt W-NW 850 mb flow will enhance snow accumulations in the higher elevations of East TN and SW VA. The coverage of snow showers will gradually taper off Friday night as the upper trough axis allows for some stabilization. Snow accumulations at this time continue to be uncertain, but given the extremely cold air mass and steep lapse rates, some snow showers are possible across the entire area, mainly Thursday night. Highest chances for an inch or more accumulation will be in the mountains, SW VA, and NE TN. As mentioned above, an earlier onset of cold air while precip rates are high on Thursday morning could result in greater accumulations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The NAM got ever so slightly better but still looked pretty bad overall. Front just blows through taking the precip with it. Has the odd three fingers of snow the GEFS was showing several days ago. Still can't for the life of me figure out what would possibly cause that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12z GFS slower but pops the Lee low closer to NC/TN line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12z RGEM was very wet with a changeover at the end. My phone won’t upload the maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Ratio'd map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 12z RGEM was very wet with a changeover at the end. My phone won’t upload the make though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GEFS has alot more uncertainty in it now..mean is skewed by a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This is not heeded in the right direction . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 maybe the ukmet and euro will deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: This is not heeded in the right direction . Story of our Snowless existence.. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Kentucky said: maybe the ukmet and euro will deliver the goods UKie is la nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Story of our Snowless existence.. lolIf it was going to fall apart now is the time to do it. You don’t get them back in the 11th hour. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: UKie is la nada ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, Kentucky said: ouch Basically showing some reflection of a wave. Moisture starved and maybe getting going further north. Hopefully wrong but, the way things are for us theses days, probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro looks like it is going to agree with the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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