BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The RGEM at the end of it's run looks to be in nearly perfect agreement with the CMC fwiw. Not sure if they are normally that in sync. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Almost all ensemble members are now onboard..0z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: You gonna give us the play-by-play? I will politely leave that to John - I may chime in if it is good. He has been doing a great job for the past few nights and has brought the good mojo. Since, I don't have to handle virtual school duties tomorrow, I may try to stay up - but I am out of shape(meaning I am not used to late night model shenanigans!). @Holston_River_Rambler, has the UKMET run yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I will politely leave that to John - I may chime in if it is good. He has been doing a great job for the past few nights and has brought the good mojo. Since, I don't have to handle virtual school duties tomorrow, I may try to stay up - but I am out of shape(meaning I am not used to late night model shenanigans!). @Holston_River_Rambler, has the UKMET run yet? Hopefully not stealing Holston's thunder but from what I saw it looks like an App runner in the same general time frame. It lays down a little snow but the lows placement makes it a welcome but minor event. Not what we want but definitely in line with stovepipes words. EDIT: I rescind my prior statement on the App Runner the website I use reverts to a prior run if you are past where it has initialized the present one. EDIT 2: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2020122012/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20201224-1800z.html @Carvers Gap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Hopefully not stealing Holston's thunder but from what I saw it looks like an App runner in the same general time frame. It lays down a little snow but the lows placement makes it a welcome but minor event. Not what we want but definitely in line with stovepipes words. What site do you use for the UKMET? I can see it on the MeteoCentre website. Increments are too far apart for me to make any kind of inferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The Canadian is still slower than the GFS but it has sped up towards the GFS solution. Also much more snow on it vs 12z. So the above comments about it folding towards the GFS were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: What site do you use for the UKMET? I can see it on the MeteoCentre website. Increments are too far apart for me to make any kind of inferences. Normally the UK would be out on pivotal by now but they are having server issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Would like to see an ensemble of the CMC...OP was close to nailing the whole eastern valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Now that it has initialized 0z Ukie is a big improvement from 12z... (Not where we want it yet but woo!) The difference maker was getting the developing low to the east of the blue ridge allowing for the coveted leeside low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Generated the Lee side low slightly to far to the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Would like to see an ensemble of the CMC...OP was close to nailing the whole eastern valley The Canadian has the initial thump then a secondary piece of energy moves from middle Tennessee SE towards the southeast areas of the forum. Snows lightly basically all night into Christmas morning over parts of the area. Has an unfortunate snow hole. North Georgia people would be ecstatic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Generated the Lee side low slightly to far to the NE That'll do right there. And yeah, the CMC almost went to a weak Miller A. Weak impulse moved from GC states up through the Piedmont. As MRX noted, with such a strong front, climatology supports the genesis of a slp along that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: That'll do right there. And yeah, the CMC almost went to a weak Miller A. Weak impulse moved from GC states up through the Piedmont. As MRX noted, with such a strong front, climatology supports the genesis of a slp along that front. Yeah noticed the same on the GEFs...few members now going almost toward a more traditional Miller A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 0z ICON at noon on Christmas Day for anyone curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah noticed the same on the GEFs...few members now going almost toward a more traditional Miller A If we can land the cold, that is great. If not, I don't want mixing issues and warm noses anywhere around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: If we can land the cold, that is great. If not, I don't want mixing issues and warm noses anywhere around. I think you will have no worries...southern valley possibly. The number of members now spitting out 2"+ amounts down into north central AL and NW GA has certainly got my attention lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah noticed the same on the GEFs...few members now going almost toward a more traditional Miller A Will be interesting to see if this trends stronger. A powerful front like this "should" have the potential to tap the GOM and form a low. The front is moving so fast, it might limit slp formation until it gets past our latitude though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: If we can land the cold, that is great. If not, I don't want mixing issues and warm noses anywhere around. Hmm... Perhaps... more potent cold = stronger front = front dives further down in latitude = low develops in more favorable location = ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Will be interesting to see if this trends stronger. A powerful front like this "should" have the potential to tap the GOM and form a low. The front is moving so fast, it might limit slp formation until it gets past our latitude though... The one thing that is sticking out to me (and we have all seen it before)..is usually at some point even the GEFs loses a storm and brings it back (alot of wavering run to run)...it has been a really long time since I can remember the GEFs maintain a system this long (strengthening with each subsequent run this far out) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian has the initial thump then a secondary piece of energy moves from middle Tennessee SE towards the southeast areas of the forum. Snows lightly basically all night into Christmas morning over parts of the area. Has an unfortunate snow hole. North Georgia people would be ecstatic. 0z UKie has a similar piece that tries to dive in the backside...(stripe across AL)...starting to pickup up a potential phase maybe? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 At 42, the Euro looks slightly quicker but otherwise pretty much the same one 500 vort maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Through 51, again just a tick quicker. Will be interesting to see what if any impact it has down stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 At 66, the system/front coming out of the NW looks slightly more compact and organized at 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 At 72, the low in the GL area is 3mb deeper than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Surface temperature gradient behind the front is more gradual at 72 compared to 12z. Not a good initial sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 At 78, the GL low is at 986 compared to 993 at 18z. Front is a tad quicker and more robust as it enters western TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Out to 84, looks like convection over Louisiana is cutting off some of the moisture transport northward. Likely is a result of a much more organized low over the GL area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro was slightly better vs 12z. It's still on the slow edge of guidance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 At 90, cold air is lagging behind the precip band compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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