CARDSWEATHER Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z GEFS with notable eastern shift in surface low placement vs 12z FWIW. Majority of the ensembles are not pleasing for most in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 My local news is putting their snow forecast out, and this looks pretty good to me. Maybe even 10-15" should be down the shore towards Duluth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: These are some good trends, considering that yesterday morning I thought we were dead in the water. Out of this sub forum, but I still monitor the Knoxville TN area. For years those posters would dread this setup. Cold chasing rain never seemed to work out in that valley. Ironically, Toronto might see a white Christmas while Ottawa and Montreal see a green Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 00z HRRR says game on here with 6”+. I want to buy it but think the trowel feature is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 00z HRRR says game on here with 6”+. I want to buy it but think the trowel feature is overdone. Oh, wanna trade places? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 00z Nam has Cincinnati at 6" ! Gfs has zilch. I'm afraid that GFS will be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: 00z Nam has Cincinnati at 6" ! Gfs has zilch. I'm afraid that GFS will be right.. Go look at Canadian. Has east central Oh getting a foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Posted in wrong thread but near Blizzard conditions might be realized here tomorrow. It’s crazy the evolution on the models since the 12z runs this morning. Double digit totals might not be out of the question. (If I anyone can accurately measure with 50mph winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Going to snow sideways 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 just love how ugly things got in 18-24 hours of model runs. and also, if the snow total maps are to be believed, high contrast in snow from the northwest metro (Brooklyn Park) compared with much lower amounts in Cottage Grove and Hastings. and it probably wouldn't take much to shift that band 30 miles. good thing I have off work tomorrow. I'll be able to observe here in St. Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Going to snow sideways Nice! Great timing to lay down some fresh powder right before xmas. Take lots of pics so we can live vicariously through your experience. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Ratios are going to be insane in MN tomorrow. Easily 20-25:1. Pure fluff. EDIT: Technically today, lost track of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said: Ratios are going to be insane in MN tomorrow. Easily 20-25:1. Pure fluff. EDIT: Technically today, lost track of the time All the better for those 50mph winds to whip around. Should be really good drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, chuckster2012 said: 00z Nam has Cincinnati at 6" ! Gfs has zilch. I'm afraid that GFS will be right.. Can't believe the GFS caved to the Euro and UK. The 06z NAM run has gotten worse. Similar analogs of a cold Christmas with very little to no accumulation include Christmas 1998 and Christmas 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Ratios are going to be insane in MN tomorrow. Easily 20-25:1. Pure fluff. EDIT: Technically today, lost track of the time I would have thought that fracturing would cut the ratio nearly in half given the extreme winds. Maybe not? Super excited for this afternoon. Was gonna go skating with the kids on the lake. Now thinking we’ll find something indoors to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Whoever sent me the snow magnet, Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Aaaaaand it's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hoping for a couple inches of lake effect here. There's a nice write up regarding lake effect in the IWX AFD Quote Lake effect snow will ramp up by Thursday night. NAM forecast soundings out of South Bend and La Porte show about a 6-hour window of an especially favorable omega and DGZ overlap, along with CAPE in excess of 600 j/kg and an Equilibrium Level near 9,000 ft. This begins near 06Z Friday (2AM EST). Strong winds near 25-30 knots through much of the cloud layer will likely shred the snowflake size. Lastly, 0-2km ThetaE lapse rates could be improved when compared to internal case studies of significant LES events. Lake effect snow tapers later Friday as the wind field becomes more westerly. With that stage set, travel through the lake effect snow region will likely be the most hazardous Thursday night/early Friday morning. This is when the snow rates will be heaviest, resulting in poor visibility. Pavement temperatures are expected to be in the 20s during this time as well. The inherited forecast snowfall of 2-5" was nudged upward a touch with 6" totals in Berrien county certainly a possibility. With the wind advisory in place and the "worst" start time of LES not until Thursday night/Friday morning, decided to hold off on any winter headlines. Also, it astounds me continues to use Winter Wx Advisories for events that should be WSW's. Accumulations up to 9 inches on Christmas warrants a warning. Quote MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-231700- /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0012.201224T0900Z-201226T0000Z/ Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren- Including the cities of Ludington, Hart, Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland, and South Haven 359 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow showers, heavy at times, expected. Temperatures dropping quickly into the 20s early Thursday morning with wind chills in the single digits. Total snow accumulations of up to 9 inches by Friday evening. * WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult due to icy roads and reduced visibilities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest lake effect snow bands are expected on Christmas Eve and Christmas morning. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour and whiteouts are possible during this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Pretty much inside 24hrs and I still have no idea if the deformation band will barely coat my grass or give me some solid powder skiing tomorrow. Unreal this was my thinking less then 24hrs ago. Gonna go full on blizzard mode here by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Didn't expect to see this given the latest model suite, but I'd gladly take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Didn't expect to see this given the latest model suite, but I'd gladly take this. U ain’t kidding. One time, just one time, a little Christmas miracle please! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Look for a correction....shifting the snow shield 50 miles East by the next map this PM. Scrooge in full beast mode! Oh well.....we do hype- to- hell very well here in Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It’s pretty neat to see the different possible outcomes this close to the event. The first drops in the area will happen within 12-15 hours and some of the local Mets I follow are silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Gino27 said: Didn't expect to see this given the latest model suite, but I'd gladly take this. Rgem and Canadian only ones so far that didn't cave east. 3k NAM still isn't bad for a large section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Rgem and Canadian only ones so far that didn't cave east. 3k NAM still isn't bad for a large section Yeah they did. Had me at 1-2 inches now a dab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Thought we were gonna get something out of this. Now it looks like melt today/flash freeze tomorrow with no new snow, so a dirty glacier Christmas it is. Yay. That snow we got the 11th-12th is now rendered basically pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Light rain has commenced just as modeled. Latest runs of the HRRR would suggest double digit totals very much in the realm of possibility here. 18.7" on the season, lets see if we make a run at the 30" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 36 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Yeah they did. Had me at 1-2 inches now a dab. Then you were on the outside looking in as it was. Still has me at 9" in mount vernon. Don't buy it but if it moved it was by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 ....and its showtime. Winds went from calm to breezy and our steady 40F temp is dropping quick in the last 5min. Changeover should happen in the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lets see what this view is like in an hour or two, or six. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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