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Christmas Eve 2020 Snow Potential


cyclone77
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45 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

12z Canadian Ensemble Mean remains east of RGEM and GEM-GLB low tracks

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-greatlakes-total_snow_10to1_cm-8951600.thumb.png.383d24e0b16d180f6b8e5339623a3b34.png

Very interesting set-up. The operational NAM was further west, like the RGEM, but the high-resolution NAM was much cooler at the surface. Which suggests stronger dynamic cooling as the initial low parks up over Hudson Bay keeping the WAA at bay. We’re riding an extremely tight gradient here. Depending where that gradient sets up, someone from Windsor to Toronto will have a brief but very intense burst of heavy snow with a fast-moving deformation band. The CMC digs the low more than the 3KM NAM and that pushes the secondary Low further west. You remained optimistic about this set-up from the start so let's hope that optimism pays off. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

True desperation.  Plus, it's snow weannies time of the year

haha the west trends have all but ended the storm for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls and GTA. Thankfully this storm has received almost no hype in the immediate GTA so I dont even need to update anyone to calm down. 

I still think christmas itself is somewhat white with 2-5cm of snow and flurries. Lake Effect though in southern Niagara and Buffalo could be interesting 

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6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

 

haha the west trends have all but ended the storm for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls and GTA. Thankfully this storm has received almost no hype in the immediate GTA so I dont even need to update anyone to calm down. 

I still think christmas itself is somewhat white with 2-5cm of snow and flurries. Lake Effect though in southern Niagara and Buffalo could be interesting 

Still room for shifts. Extremely tight gradient but a lot of factors impacting the exact strength and track of that secondary low. The main thing imo is how much the trough digs. I'd say tonight’s 00Z runs will be key but tomorrow's 12z runs will give us the best clarity. Potential is there for either 1-2" (2-5cm) or 4-8" (10-20cm). Not going to write it off just yet. 

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15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Still room for shifts. Extremely tight gradient but a lot of factors impacting the exact strength and track of that secondary low. The main thing imo is how much the trough digs. I'd say tonight’s 00Z runs will be key but tomorrow's 12z runs will give us the best clarity. Potential is there for either 1-2" (2-5cm) or 4-8" (10-20cm). Not going to write it off just yet. 

ya, so far its been the story of the winter haha. I'm 1/3 on these tracks this year, watching Brampton/Markham get 10-20cm while I get 2-5cm. Either way I think Christmas morning will be white, just depends if its a legit winter storm or just a nice coating. 

Hope everything is going well with you and you're able to make the most out of this weird holiday season. A bigger storm with actual winter storm watches might be a blessing. With a lockdown of Southern Ontario looming on Boxing Day, a storm might persuade more people to forgo the drives across the region and stay home. 

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7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

And they aren’t even save worthy.
 

Not like these things are true clown maps spitting out 24”+

I see nothing changes. If this was a lil further west into chicagos region, the thread would have just as many, if not more, snow maps. I guess if Chicago's out the snowzone, we can only post maps that show more than 2 feet? I don't get why people can't just post freely without others putting in their smart comments, especially in this aforementioned small/mostly dead thread. It deters people from posting in the future. The activity with this current system is a setup the models tend to struggle with and for the most part haven't shown much. The canadian is giving easter lakes snow weenies life today.

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

ya, so far its been the story of the winter haha. I'm 1/3 on these tracks this year, watching Brampton/Markham get 10-20cm while I get 2-5cm. Either way I think Christmas morning will be white, just depends if its a legit winter storm or just a nice coating. 

Hope everything is going well with you and you're able to make the most out of this weird holiday season. A bigger storm with actual winter storm watches might be a blessing. With a lockdown of Southern Ontario looming on Boxing Day, a storm might persuade more people to forgo the drives across the region and stay home. 

Yeah I agree. For people along the Lake, like yourself, it's been a terrible start to winter. YYZ is ~43cm for the season and only 75cm away from our seasonal average. 

Everything is going well my friend, hbu? Been wfh since March. Just bored and tired of being trapped inside with nothing to do and nowhere to go. Now with the lockdown looming combined with winter, it's only going to make people like myself more depressed lol. I agree. I hope the storm will be bigger than expected right now so it forces people to stay home for Christmas. At the same time, I can tell you a lot of people are tired of staying home so they might just go anyways. Lockdown doesn't start till Christmas night. 

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21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Mean spread is still all over the place but at least they’re east of NAM or RGEM expect for one lol. All in all, good for the GTA. Let's see if that trend continues tonight. 

These are some good trends, considering that yesterday morning I thought we were dead in the water. 

Out of this sub forum, but I still monitor the Knoxville TN area. For years those posters would dread this setup. Cold chasing rain never seemed to work out in that valley. 

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WSW issued finally for NE MN. I think a blizzard warning might be in the offing for a little while tomorrow night. Lake Superior is gonna surprise me thinks.

Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

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