blizzardof96 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Canadian Ensemble Mean remains east of RGEM and GEM-GLB low tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: 12z Canadian Ensemble Mean remains east of RGEM and GEM-GLB low tracks Just want to point out for viewers that that map is centimeters, not inches. Almost threw me at first. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Please keep the west trends going lol. This has just been a strange/unique storm to follow with good potential if things played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 i’ve never seen so many snow maps posted in such a short thread.. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 True desperation. Plus, it's snow weannies time of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Models have been consistent in showing good moisture transport from both the GOMEX and SE coast. Exact low track will be important for the GTA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 45 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: 12z Canadian Ensemble Mean remains east of RGEM and GEM-GLB low tracks Very interesting set-up. The operational NAM was further west, like the RGEM, but the high-resolution NAM was much cooler at the surface. Which suggests stronger dynamic cooling as the initial low parks up over Hudson Bay keeping the WAA at bay. We’re riding an extremely tight gradient here. Depending where that gradient sets up, someone from Windsor to Toronto will have a brief but very intense burst of heavy snow with a fast-moving deformation band. The CMC digs the low more than the 3KM NAM and that pushes the secondary Low further west. You remained optimistic about this set-up from the start so let's hope that optimism pays off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Weather with Panda Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro is definitely handling this the best IMO. GEFS is further east and so is the Ukmet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Frog Town said: True desperation. Plus, it's snow weannies time of the year haha the west trends have all but ended the storm for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls and GTA. Thankfully this storm has received almost no hype in the immediate GTA so I dont even need to update anyone to calm down. I still think christmas itself is somewhat white with 2-5cm of snow and flurries. Lake Effect though in southern Niagara and Buffalo could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Pretty much inside 24hrs and I still have no idea if the deformation band will barely coat my grass or give me some solid powder skiing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: haha the west trends have all but ended the storm for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls and GTA. Thankfully this storm has received almost no hype in the immediate GTA so I dont even need to update anyone to calm down. I still think christmas itself is somewhat white with 2-5cm of snow and flurries. Lake Effect though in southern Niagara and Buffalo could be interesting Still room for shifts. Extremely tight gradient but a lot of factors impacting the exact strength and track of that secondary low. The main thing imo is how much the trough digs. I'd say tonight’s 00Z runs will be key but tomorrow's 12z runs will give us the best clarity. Potential is there for either 1-2" (2-5cm) or 4-8" (10-20cm). Not going to write it off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 36 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i’ve never seen so many snow maps posted in such a short thread. . And they aren’t even save worthy. Not like these things are true clown maps spitting out 24”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Still room for shifts. Extremely tight gradient but a lot of factors impacting the exact strength and track of that secondary low. The main thing imo is how much the trough digs. I'd say tonight’s 00Z runs will be key but tomorrow's 12z runs will give us the best clarity. Potential is there for either 1-2" (2-5cm) or 4-8" (10-20cm). Not going to write it off just yet. ya, so far its been the story of the winter haha. I'm 1/3 on these tracks this year, watching Brampton/Markham get 10-20cm while I get 2-5cm. Either way I think Christmas morning will be white, just depends if its a legit winter storm or just a nice coating. Hope everything is going well with you and you're able to make the most out of this weird holiday season. A bigger storm with actual winter storm watches might be a blessing. With a lockdown of Southern Ontario looming on Boxing Day, a storm might persuade more people to forgo the drives across the region and stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: And they aren’t even save worthy. Not like these things are true clown maps spitting out 24”+ I see nothing changes. If this was a lil further west into chicagos region, the thread would have just as many, if not more, snow maps. I guess if Chicago's out the snowzone, we can only post maps that show more than 2 feet? I don't get why people can't just post freely without others putting in their smart comments, especially in this aforementioned small/mostly dead thread. It deters people from posting in the future. The activity with this current system is a setup the models tend to struggle with and for the most part haven't shown much. The canadian is giving easter lakes snow weenies life today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: And they aren’t even save worthy. Not like these things are true clown maps spitting out 24”+ Now you're just being salty. Let the folks who are in the game enjoy the tracking. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 P&C has 2-5” for mby tomorrow. Should be an interesting afternoon with the wind cranking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The 500MB trough keeps sinking deeper and further SW with Each Run. Anyone else seeing this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If this storm was around Chicano I guarantee there would be posts every minute. Us here in Indiana and Ohio have suffered enough for like 5 years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: ya, so far its been the story of the winter haha. I'm 1/3 on these tracks this year, watching Brampton/Markham get 10-20cm while I get 2-5cm. Either way I think Christmas morning will be white, just depends if its a legit winter storm or just a nice coating. Hope everything is going well with you and you're able to make the most out of this weird holiday season. A bigger storm with actual winter storm watches might be a blessing. With a lockdown of Southern Ontario looming on Boxing Day, a storm might persuade more people to forgo the drives across the region and stay home. Yeah I agree. For people along the Lake, like yourself, it's been a terrible start to winter. YYZ is ~43cm for the season and only 75cm away from our seasonal average. Everything is going well my friend, hbu? Been wfh since March. Just bored and tired of being trapped inside with nothing to do and nowhere to go. Now with the lockdown looming combined with winter, it's only going to make people like myself more depressed lol. I agree. I hope the storm will be bigger than expected right now so it forces people to stay home for Christmas. At the same time, I can tell you a lot of people are tired of staying home so they might just go anyways. Lockdown doesn't start till Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z EPS MSLP tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, blizzardof96 said: 12z EPS MSLP tracks Mean spread is still all over the place but at least they’re east of NAM or RGEM expect for one lol. All in all, good for the GTA. Let's see if that trend continues tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Mean spread is still all over the place but at least they’re east of NAM or RGEM expect for one lol. All in all, good for the GTA. Let's see if that trend continues tonight. These are some good trends, considering that yesterday morning I thought we were dead in the water. Out of this sub forum, but I still monitor the Knoxville TN area. For years those posters would dread this setup. Cold chasing rain never seemed to work out in that valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Latest 3km NAM shows a solid 4-6” across the metro. Trend is looking good for the twin cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Messy start here, then.... BOOM!!?? Lake enhanced burial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Now you're just being salty. Let the folks who are in the game enjoy the tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 folks, the Midwest regional view on Pivotal is so much better, it even goes all the way down to the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Much better option than the trash Ohio Valley view that cuts off north of Detroit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Wheels fell off on the GFS. Could be the end for the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Wheels fell off on the GFS. Could be the end for the west trend. If you put your eggs in the gfs.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 WSW issued finally for NE MN. I think a blizzard warning might be in the offing for a little while tomorrow night. Lake Superior is gonna surprise me thinks. Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Wheels fell off on the GFS. Could be the end for the west trend. It’s pretty useless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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