frostfern Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I actually prefer the GFS. Rather get rain on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast out of the west that's guaranteed to give at least some sticking snow than a thread-the-needle synoptic event with the low deepening too far east for good lake effect. Last year was just awful in terms of zero notable lake effect events in West Michigan... then a couple unwanted wet slops well after the first spring thaw. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzz 18Z GFS comical. Chicago looks to be in a dead spot. Systems detour or fall apart as they get close. Snow shield for ORD in full effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This thread should be renamed as the Christmas Eve 2020 Grinch Storm. 6 hours ago, CoachLB said: 12z euro garbage Christmas Eve torch No low temps in the teens or below according to the Euro. 12z GFS: 18z GFS: 12z UK: 12z GDPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Spartman said: This thread should be renamed as the Christmas Eve 2020 Grinch Storm. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I like how Alek is dangerously close to getting a full moon from the Model Grinch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Can't wait for the GFS to cave in a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Can't wait for the GFS to cave in a day or two It’s holding firm on the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Who will cave first? GFS or Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Can't wait for the GFS to cave in a day or two Gonna be a rainer. A Grinchmas storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Who will cave first? GFS or Euro Looks like the 00z GFS has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I feel you are all calling this event over before it has even started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: I feel you are all calling this event over before it has even started. Not me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: I feel you are all calling this event over before it has even started. I 100% agree. Twitter seems to really be down on it too. It's still a blob out on the middle of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Who will cave first? GFS or Euro Non-trivial chance that everything "caves." Meaning that the actual outcome looks different than anything currently progged. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 00z UK: 00z GDPS: The 00z runs of both UK and GDPS models hint at Christmas Eve being a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spartman said: 00z UK: 00z GDPS: The 00z runs of both UK and GDPS models hint at Christmas Eve being a torch. You gotta stop confusing things with those 10 day snow maps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Euro was garbage which means absolutely nothing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 06z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 less map spam imo 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS has changed course and doesn’t have much defo band precip at all for my area. Main snow shield stays with the WAA wing of the storm up on the Canadian border. Probably the right solution considering we’ve gotten 0.10” of precip in the last 5-6 weeks locally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 you can feel the desperation in this thread. Our time will come. This probably isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 On 12/19/2020 at 5:20 AM, A-L-E-K said: ready 2 b dusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 NWS offices and numerous mets don't like the idea of there being a primary low up north with a secondary maybe forming over the apps like the models have. Maybe models will sort themselves out over the next few day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I think there's a decent enough chance at this range to get some modest accums but certainly lean against the fun phased outcome from the 00z Euro two nights ago. Overall there's been a slight uptick in ensemble probabilities of light (1"+) accums. With the cold air mass coming in for Christmas, will take what we can get for the holiday mood and to get on the board if tomorrow morning doesn't produce measurable at ORD. Edit: Re. IWX's tweet, a little surprised at the 'significant rain and snow' wording because that would require the phased solution. Otherwise, best chance for a significant precip event looks to be in the eastern Lakes and points east, probably east of their CWA. Edit 2: Just saw 06z Euro, and it looked potentially more interesting extrapolating out from hour 90 than the 00z run ended up being. On the Euro ensemble though, currently very little member support for a heavy snow swath in the western and central sub, though a rough estimate is about half of members have light to moderate snow swaths nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 riding the 84hr NAM to big totals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 It's not looking too good for Toronto at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Edit: Re. IWX's tweet, a little surprised at the 'significant rain and snow' wording because that would require the phased solution. Otherwise, best chance for a significant precip event looks to be in the eastern Lakes and points east, probably east of their CWA. Interestingly enough, IWX's AFD seems to support something frontal. I think what's tripping a lot of people is that the 500mb pattern is a more conducive to what they outlined in their tweet. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Wow this storm looks to bring tropical rains and a Christmas torch to the East Coast. Sounds like flood potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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