blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: It's not looking too good for Toronto at the moment. I think we're gonna see accumulating snow from this...possibly significant if things can align correctly. This upper level pattern is generally favourable for our area, especially with the ridge bridge to the north of the upper low. Would like to see more consistency on guidance. A wave is expected to develop as a secondary low along the front, so models will probably struggle with the sfc low track. If track is up the spine of the apps it becomes slightly more challenging as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: less map spam imo I dont mind, I just wish they'd stop posting to the 25th then adding in one to the 30th lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The GFS and NAM are worlds apart at H5 its almost laughable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I'll take my glorious 1 inch flash freeze white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Seems the gfs is too far north with the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The GFS hasn't caved yet, but I would be surprised if it ends up being more correct on the setup. It's on its own with the early development of a deep surface low way up in the northern Plains from a completely different handling of the northeast Pac wave.Edit: Unfortunately, the 12z GEFS doesn't tell us much because it appears that ensemble remains too non-dispersive with the operational. Meanwhile, the GEM is pretty similar to its previous runs, just on the deeper more phased side of the spectrum, so in that sense would not be good for the LOT CWA but a good event in MN, northern IA and WI. The NAM at the end of the run looked interesting and pointed toward a phased solution, though caution advised in trying to extrapolate out from the end of NAM runs. Either way, it's certainly more in the Euro and GEM camp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Time to throw in the towel on a Christmas snowstorm. Not happening. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Time to throw in the towel on a Christmas snowstorm. Not happening. It may for someone. Unclear whether BAMwx can will it to occur in Indiana. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The GFS hasn't caved yet, but I would be surprised if it ends up being more correct on the setup. It's on its own with the early development of a deep surface low way up in the northern Plains from a completely different handling of the northeast Pac wave. Edit: Unfortunately, the 12z GEFS doesn't tell us much because it appears that ensemble remains too non-dispersive with the operational. Meanwhile, the GEM is pretty similar to its previous runs, just on the deeper more phased side of the spectrum, so in that sense would not be good for the LOT CWA but a good event in MN, northern IA and WI. The NAM at the end of the run looked interesting and pointed toward a phased solution, though caution advised in trying to extrapolate out from the end of NAM runs. Either way, it's certainly more in the Euro and GEM camp. Euro abandoned us. It’s over. I couldn’t care less about Ohio getting more snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Euro abandoned us. It’s over. I couldn’t care less about Ohio getting more snow. Love you too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 ECMWF comparison (12z left vs. 0z right). Valid christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The GFS and Euro are still very different at 500, but at the surface they’re similar. Euro as trended towards the GFS evolution at 500 though.Probably can give it till tomorrow, but the writing is being drawn on the wall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Euro sure isn’t what it used to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Euro sure isn’t what it used to be. Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Euro abandoned us. It’s over. I couldn’t care less about Ohio getting more snow. Real nice dude. What happened to us cheering for each other. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Real nice dude. What happened to us cheering for each other. That's a thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show It was terrible last week's northeast storm. It was terrible when it forecast 9" of snow last weekend for us. There's plenty to show, just not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: That's a thing? Most of the sub hasn't had much... so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Gino27 said: Most of the sub hasn't had much... so yes. You've had more than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, McHenrySnow said: You've had more than most. And it's still not a thing. I've never seen anyone in Ohio gladly sacrifice a storm for folks further west and I would never expect you to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Euro definitely caved from a sfc perspective towards GFS. Honestly think we will see a lot of flip flopping this week until the energy gets better sampled. Nam has a more euro look but it's also Nam at 84hrs. I'm not getting my hopes up for any snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show Euro lost its king status a few years ago I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!! Parts of Ohio have had a lot more, but yeah... weather is going to do what it's going to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Parts of Ohio have had a lot more, but yeah... weather is going to do what it's going to do. Im at 9.3" but that doesnt mean I want to miss the next snow either. I want all my snow friends to cash in from IL to OH, but if tracking something thats a more narrow band of snow, of course I will always root for mby, and I dont expect anyone else to do any differently for their by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, mimillman said: Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!! I've had 17.5" since Nov 1st. This time last year I had received over 80" and had a depth of 41". As of today, the season total here is 46" and a current depth of 5". Frost is already 30" deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 See ya in 2021.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: See ya in 2021. . Are you saying there's no chance for anyone? Can you give a simple interpretation of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Are you saying there's no chance for anyone? Can you give a simple interpretation of this? Less digging/amplification, which suggests more of a northern stream dominated outcome and keeps the ceiling on potential down compared to what earlier runs would have extrapolated to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Understood! Thank you. I'm still holding out for a 2004 miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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