cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 As RC and many others have pointed out in the mid-range thread there's growing potential for something a little more substantial Wed night into Thursday (Christmas Eve). May be a bit of a thread-the-needle event depending on how it phases, but hopefully a lucky swath could pick up some fresh snow just in time for Christmas. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 ready 2 b buried 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 phrase of the month: "detroit duster." 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Models looks pretty good for my area so that probably means we’re doomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro OP definite hail Mary. Not much ensemble support and no other model support save one run days ago on the GFS. Based on this pseudo El Nino pattern that has established itself would favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Re. Euro op, the 00z run wasn't a huge difference from the 12z run conceptually, just shifted farther south with the surface low. Key thing is the wave rounding the trough being allowed to come up and have a chance to phase in with the northern wave. Member spread increased between the 00z and the 06z EPS, so we might be reshuffling the deck, and need to see the clustering lean more toward the southern solutions on the 12z run and the other ensemble systems as well moving forward. As is seemingly always the case, we have pieces of energy coming from two data sparse regions plus the reliance on a phase to play out in a way that results in a favorable outcome for our area. With the very mild air mass out ahead of the possible system and owing to this strong positive mid-level height anomalies to the east, we also can't rule out a farther northwest rainer cutter. I think chances of a decent event somewhere in the sub have increased a bit, but still need a lot to happen just right for the Chicago metro snow hole. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The GFS and most of the boring progressive solutions are breaking off a southern cutoff from the wave over the pacific before the trough gets to the west coast Hopefully we can avoid that, keep the wave intact and allow the trough to dig more into the four corners region 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The GFS and most of the boring progressive solutions are breaking off a southern cutoff from the wave over the pacific before the trough gets to the west coast Hopefully we can avoid that, keep the wave intact and allow the trough to dig more into the four corners region 06z GEFS was a step in the right direction, pretty easy to see just by looking at height anomaly run to run comparison with the 00z.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 well beyond useful range but the NAM is much less progressive than the GFS and digs he wave into central CA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I would definitely have to plan a trip home if the 00z GGEM happened on Christmas day. About as perfect of a blizzard setup for Detroit as you can get. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 well beyond useful range but the NAM is much less progressive than the GFS and digs he wave into central CA FWIW, the NAM wiped the floor with the current GFS from 84 hours out to verification on the east coast storm. Should keep an eye on how the parallel GFS is handling things because it performed much better than the operational with that system. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 New Years Eve 2007 and we had a similar set-up. You all remember what that storm did?? It wasn't good for the lower lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: FWIW, the NAM wiped the floor with the current GFS from 84 hours out to verification on the east coast storm. Should keep an eye on how the parallel GFS is handling things because it performed much better than the operational with that system. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Off topic but yea, huge win for the NAM out East with that storm, even from its dreadful range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, Frog Town said: New Years Eve 2007 and we had a similar set-up. You all remember what that storm did?? It wasn't good for the lower lakes. Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12Z GFS is terrible, little snow for any of us and then bombs out once in New York 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, mimillman said: Off topic but yea, huge win for the NAM out East with that storm, even from its dreadful range Seems as that was a much more straight-forward scenario fwiw. Hedging my bets on any model really having a strong grasp on this system at this point. All options seem to remain on the table. How soon do we begin to eliminate those is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Out east is setting up for a record year of snow. Two bombs on the 12z gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region. Ok. Makes sense now. I live in Toledo, so It was a win for the glacial ridge and northwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The GEM was much more 00z Euro-like but also emphasizes the thread the needle nature of the setup. The southern wave goes neutral to negative tilt on its own and the system takes off but cuts too far northwest, followed by full phasing of northern and southern waves. From a big picture perspective, it's a step in the right direction. Edit: The 12z GEFS was also another step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Re. Euro op, the 00z run wasn't a huge difference from the 12z run conceptually, just shifted farther south with the surface low. Key thing is the wave rounding the trough being allowed to come up and have a chance to phase in with the northern wave. Member spread increased between the 00z and the 06z EPS, so we might be reshuffling the deck, and need to see the clustering lean more toward the southern solutions on the 12z run and the other ensemble systems as well moving forward. As is seemingly always the case, we have pieces of energy coming from two data sparse regions plus the reliance on a phase to play out in a way that results in a favorable outcome for our area. With the very mild air mass out ahead of the possible system and owing to this strong positive mid-level height anomalies to the east, we also can't rule out a farther northwest rainer cutter. I think chances of a decent event somewhere in the sub have increased a bit, but still need a lot to happen just right for the Chicago metro snow hole. Here's a look at the location of the energy from the time of 6z ECMWF initialization. I suspect model guidance will continue to struggle as the energy is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak out over the North Pacific. The energy is incident on the west coast by ~0z Tuesday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Cary67 said: favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often. I am far more concerned about this scenario... a late/east developer (of the secondary low)... than it coming far enough west to rain on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z Euro is a bit of a discombobulated mess and if you're looking for overall lame outcomes, a pretty good run for that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z euro garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Glass half full post. There is more than one swath of snow. Not that you'd have confidence in this particular evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 save NW Lower MI, and the Eastern Kentucky coal fields... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Glass half full post. There is more than one swath of snow. Not that you'd have confidence in this particular evolution. Answer always lies in the middle. Which would be a good solution if you combine the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 EURO had 4-5 runs CLE in the 20s on Christmas eve now as we get closer 4 runs at 50 with rain sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Glass half full post. There is more than one swath of snow. Not that you'd have confidence in this particular evolution. Decent wishcast for GRR. The last one that looked like this at this range dumped 2" of rain and zero accumulating snow though. Previous runs had better lake effect events for me on Christmas day. Would really prefer the main low to move closer to James Bay for westerly cyclonic wrap-around. This coastal-low dominant crap brings cold with little LES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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