HIGH IMPACT Stormy Christmas (EVE and morning) 12/24-25/20 6P-10A

[nycsnow]

Starting to see a lot more winds of 30ish last hour 

[bluewave]

The BGM AFD really highlights how extreme an event this is.

 

645 AM Update...
Just adding an extra word to stress, that this is no ordinary
Flood Watch; flooding is not just possible but indeed expected,
and it will likely be quite significant for much of the area -
both the initial flash flood/small stream phase late today into
tonight, and the main stem river phase late tonight through
Friday. Some of the signals that we look for in the models for
flood potential, such as mean integrated water vapor transport,
precipitable water, and southerly component of 850 mb winds;
are either off-the-charts or nearly so for this time of year.
This is a rare set up. This would be a problem even in the
absence of snow cover, but unfortunately was also have plenty of
water that will be released from deep snowpack in the warm
moist and windy conditions later today through tonight -
especially the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins. Anyone
living in a flood- prone area should have a plan and know what
to do in the event high water threatens.

 

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The BGM AFD really highlights how extreme an event this is.

 

645 AM Update...
Just adding an extra word to stress, that this is no ordinary
Flood Watch; flooding is not just possible but indeed expected,
and it will likely be quite significant for much of the area -
both the initial flash flood/small stream phase late today into
tonight, and the main stem river phase late tonight through
Friday. Some of the signals that we look for in the models for
flood potential, such as mean integrated water vapor transport,
precipitable water, and southerly component of 850 mb winds;
are either off-the-charts or nearly so for this time of year.
This is a rare set up. This would be a problem even in the
absence of snow cover, but unfortunately was also have plenty of
water that will be released from deep snowpack in the warm
moist and windy conditions later today through tonight -
especially the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins. Anyone
living in a flood- prone area should have a plan and know what
to do in the event high water threatens.

 

 

 

Infinitely more concerned about flooding here in the Catskills than the wind. Plenty of areas around here still got a deep snowpack. We probably only get advisory winds here but the flooding could prove highly problematic. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Infinitely more concerned about flooding here in the Catskills than the wind. Plenty of areas around here still got a deep snowpack. We probably only get advisory winds here but the flooding could prove highly problematic. 

Yeah, that is a lot of water ready to be released from the snowpack.
 

It should be noted, that while snow depth has markedly
decreased across the area since the big winter storm last week;
it has really only settled and compressed. Most of the water
content is still there; for example at NWS Binghamton the depth
is now only 19 inches - now under half what it was - yet it
contains slightly more than 3 inches of water. There is a lot of
water ready to be released from the dense snowpack, especially
for the Susquehanna Basin and Upper Delaware Basin.

[MJO812]

Hrrr has snow showers tomorrow

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that is a lot of water ready to be released from the snowpack.
 

It should be noted, that while snow depth has markedly
decreased across the area since the big winter storm last week;
it has really only settled and compressed. Most of the water
content is still there; for example at NWS Binghamton the depth
is now only 19 inches - now under half what it was - yet it
contains slightly more than 3 inches of water. There is a lot of
water ready to be released from the dense snowpack, especially
for the Susquehanna Basin and Upper Delaware Basin.

In my portion of Sullivan County the pack has whittled down enough to where flooding would be relatively limited at my house and generally around the area, but everywhere north is in a degree of trouble here. Isaias was the last flooding event here and it proved to be pretty bad. This one’s lasting about as long as that with the snow aiding the 1-3” of rain expected to fall (and already is beginning even.) 

the gusts, while again only at advisory level, will only serve to aid the rapid melt and flooding.

 

[wdrag]

52 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

In my portion of Sullivan County the pack has whittled down enough to where flooding would be relatively limited at my house and generally around the area, but everywhere north is in a degree of trouble here. Isaias was the last flooding event here and it proved to be pretty bad. This one’s lasting about as long as that with the snow aiding the 1-3” of rain expected to fall (and already is beginning even.) 

the gusts, while again only at advisory level, will only serve to aid the rapid melt and flooding.

 

Agreed with your concerns in heavier snowpack on northwest fringe of NYC subforum. Already well in advance flood "warnings" posted for PA/NYS Rivers in and near our subforum, showing confidence on the coming event.  

[crossbowftw3]

26 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Agreed with your concerns in heavier snowpack on northwest fringe of NYC subforum. Already well in advance flood "warnings" posted for PA/NYS Rivers in and near our subforum, showing confidence on the coming event.  

I’ve got a pretty good feeling that tomorrow morning the Delaware will be raging pretty hard. Assuming many trees don’t fall I could find time between Christmas activities to take a look at what’s going on downtown where I am. Most of the town is elevated well above the level of the Delaware, thankfully 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Infinitely more concerned about flooding here in the Catskills than the wind. Plenty of areas around here still got a deep snowpack. We probably only get advisory winds here but the flooding could prove highly problematic. 

 

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

In my portion of Sullivan County the pack has whittled down enough to where flooding would be relatively limited at my house and generally around the area, but everywhere north is in a degree of trouble here. Isaias was the last flooding event here and it proved to be pretty bad. This one’s lasting about as long as that with the snow aiding the 1-3” of rain expected to fall (and already is beginning even.) 

the gusts, while again only at advisory level, will only serve to aid the rapid melt and flooding.

 

I have friends that headed to their other house in Windham. They're a block from downtown with the creek running through their backyard. I warned them not to go but they didn't seem to care. I think I'm going to call them again now and tell them to make sure the second floor has bottled water and some food so when they have to go up there they're ready for the duration.

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

 

I have friends that headed to their other house in Windham. They're a block from downtown with the creek running through their backyard. I warned them not to go but they didn't seem to care. I think I'm going to call them again now and tell them to make sure the second floor has bottled water and some food so when they have to go up there they're ready for the duration.

The silver lining is that most of the next week after this looks generally quiet so most of the water (that doesn’t freeze anyway) would recede.

Hoping they’ve got their preparations good to go. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hrrr has snow showers tomorrow

where and what time ?

[jm1220]

In Long Beach today, boardwalk is definitely windy already. Sad to see what little snow there is here disappearing. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’ve got a pretty good feeling that tomorrow morning the Delaware will be raging pretty hard. Assuming many trees don’t fall I could find time between Christmas activities to take a look at what’s going on downtown where I am. Most of the town is elevated well above the level of the Delaware, thankfully 

I'll look for your report. Unusual flooding or debris, let the forum know and NWS as well. Good work/call etc. 

[gravitylover]

The snow is going away in a hurry but really warm air, fog and hot rain for hours will do that

[hudsonvalley21]

11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

The snow is going away in a hurry but really warm air, fog and hot rain for hours will do that

Same here, hopefully there will be a few snow piles leftover to see tomorrow morning. 55/53 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The BGM AFD really highlights how extreme an event this is.

 

645 AM Update...
Just adding an extra word to stress, that this is no ordinary
Flood Watch; flooding is not just possible but indeed expected,
and it will likely be quite significant for much of the area -
both the initial flash flood/small stream phase late today into
tonight, and the main stem river phase late tonight through
Friday. Some of the signals that we look for in the models for
flood potential, such as mean integrated water vapor transport,
precipitable water, and southerly component of 850 mb winds;
are either off-the-charts or nearly so for this time of year.
This is a rare set up. This would be a problem even in the
absence of snow cover, but unfortunately was also have plenty of
water that will be released from deep snowpack in the warm
moist and windy conditions later today through tonight -
especially the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins. Anyone
living in a flood- prone area should have a plan and know what
to do in the event high water threatens.

 

 

 

lol I remember a timelapse taken of the Boxing Day Blizzard on a picnic table in Monmouth County were they had 30"  Amazing!  I didn't see any of our 30" snowstorm though....

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The silver lining is that most of the next week after this looks generally quiet so most of the water (that doesn’t freeze anyway) would recede.

Hoping they’ve got their preparations good to go. 

thats good....I dont like big weather events in the week between Xmas and New Years!

 

[Tatamy]

Total rainfall so far this event - 1.20".  Highest wind gust - 33 mph.