HIGH IMPACT Stormy Christmas (EVE and morning) 12/24-25/20 6P-10A

[crossbowftw3]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

would having this happen in the middle of the night mean a little less of an impact than if it were happening in the middle of the afternoon?

You could in theory still get good mixing at night especially in a situation like this with good WAA. That WAA can also create a stronger inversion.

[Tatamy]

0z NAM output for highest wind gusts

 

 

[nycsnow]

If the nam has a clue we are gusting 40-50 starting around 4pm 50-60 around 8pm and then 70-80 after midnight. Not saying it’ll be that high but that’s what the 00z nam shows 

[Brian5671]

Just now, nycsnow said:

If the nam has a clue we are gusting 40-50 starting around 4pm 50-60 around 8pm and then 70-80 after midnight. Not saying it’ll be that high but that’s what the 00z nam shows 

if it verifies it's going to be crazy.   At least some dead wood is down from prior events, but ever green trees will topple on saturated soil-it's been very wet going back to Thanksgiving.

[Brian5671]

up to 4 inches of rain NE of the city

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if it verifies it's going to be crazy.   At least some dead wood is down from prior events, but ever green trees will topple on saturated soil-it's been very wet going back to Thanksgiving.

Plus all the melting snow in the city, and hours of 40-50 gust will beat up trees. I live 4 blocks from the water and 10 min from Atlantic in Brooklyn south we usually take a beating in winds by me. But to counter all this isias and a severe t storm event we had did take down a lot of dead wood.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Plus all the melting snow in the city, and hours of 40-50 gust will beat up trees. I live 4 blocks from the water and 10 min from Atlantic in Brooklyn south we usually take a beating in winds by me. But to counter all this isias and a severe t storm event we had did take down a lot of dead wood.

were any of you guys around for December 1992?  I have a really tough time believing this could ever be as bad as that, we had hurricane force gusts for 3 days and round the clock news coverage for three days on the major networks (imagine that!) with large parts of Brooklyn, Queens and coastal New Jersey underwater and massive evacuations going on.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

were any of you guys around for December 1992?  I have a really tough time believing this could ever be as bad as that, we had hurricane force gusts for 3 days and round the clock news coverage for three days on the major networks (imagine that!) with large parts of Brooklyn, Queens and coastal New Jersey underwater and massive evacuations going on.

I was 1 haha

[LibertyBell]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor'easter

 

The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1–2 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, nycsnow said:

I was 1 haha

well there's a nice summary for you haha ^

[LibertyBell]

I'm never going to forget this storm, it was the single most destructive storm I've ever experienced (even more than Sandy in the sense that it lasted for three days).

In contrast to Delaware and Maryland, the strong northeast portion of the nor'easter affected New Jersey for several days,^[5] producing strong winds and record high tides.^[14] Wind gusts reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, which were the strongest winds in association with the storm. Sustained winds were around 30 mph (48 km/h) in the region.^[2] High winds in Atlantic City destroyed the windows of storefronts.^[15] Along the Jersey coast, the nor'easter produced waves of up to 25 ft (7.6 m) in height.^[2] About 25 mi (40 km) offshore Long Branch, waves reached heights of 44 ft (13 m).^[16] In South Jersey, the storm surge struck the coast near low tide, which restricted flooding.^[14] The highest tide in South Jersey was 7.89 ft (2.40 m) in Ocean City, which broke the previous record of 7.53 ft (2.30 m) set in 1984.^[13] Further north, the surge coincided with several days of high tides and a lunar tide, causing significant flooding and beach erosion.^[3][14] The highest tide was 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy along the Raritan River, which broke the record set in 1960.^[13] In many locations, the storm produced the highest tides since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. The storm also dropped rainfall across the state, peaking at 3.80 in (97 mm) in Morristown, along with gusts peaking at 58 mph (93 km/h) at Morristown Municipal Airport. The rainfall caused higher discharge rates along rivers.^[14] The storm also produced high snowfall totals, including 14 in (360 mm) in Sussex County.^[15] Throughout the coastline, the cost to replace the lost beach from erosion was estimated at $300 million (1992 USD).^[3]

Most of the impact in New Jersey was from the high tides, which caused the worst flooding in 30 years in some locations.^[14] In Hoboken, high tides flooded portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems, leaving them closed for a few days.^[4] High tides destroyed portions of the boardwalks in Bradley Beach and Belmar, and also destroyed a century-old fishing pier in Ocean Grove.^[15] Flooding closed portions of roads across North Jersey, including the Garden State Parkway near Cheesequake State Park and six state highways.^[14] At Newark International Airport, dozens of flights were canceled.^[15] The storm left 102,000 customers of Jersey Central Power & Light without power. Damage to short circuits caused house fires in Monmouth County.^[15] Damage was heaviest near Raritan, Newark, and Sandy Hook along Raritan Bay.^[14] High winds in Jersey City destroyed the roof of an apartment; the debris struck and killed a woman walking along a nearby sidewalk.^[2][15] Throughout the state, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes, primarily in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).^[3][16] Then-governor Jim Florio declared a state of emergency and activated the New Jersey National Guard.^[15] About 19,000 people were evacuated in six towns in Monmouth County.^[3] Statewide, about 2,000 people in 20 towns had to be evacuated by helicopter or National Guard truck. The American Red Cross opened at least 30 shelters across the state, housing over 5,000 people affected by floods or lack of heat.^[15] Damage in the state was less than the nor'easter of 1962 due to 30 years of disaster mitigation, including beach replenishment, dune construction, and improved building codes.^[16]

New York and New England[edit]

Before the storm's circulation passed the New York area, its associated trough produced sustained easterly winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) along Long Island. Wind gusts reached 77 mph (124 km/h) at LaGuardia Airport. The strong easterly winds produced high tides in the region that increased gradually after three consecutive tidal cycles; this was due to the nor'easter's slow movement. There was a storm surge of about 3 ft (1 m) at Battery Park at the southern end of Manhattan.^[4] The same station reported a high tide of 8.04 ft (2.45 m) above sea level,^[13] which was high enough to surpass the sea walls for a few hours. The ensuing flooding submerged portions of Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive to about 4 ft (1.5 m) deep. At least 50 cars were stuck, and some drivers required rescue.^[4] Low-lying neighborhoods of New York City were also flooded. High waves canceled Staten Island Ferry service.^[3] A power outage closed the New York City Subway system for about five hours.^[6] The highest tide in Long Island was 11.27 ft (3.44 m) at Willets Point, Queens.^[17] The tides and flooding decreased after the winds shifted to the north,^[4] ending on December 14.^[17] High tides canceled ferry service to Fire Island, and the only bridge onto the island was closed to all but emergency personnel and homeowners. High waves washed away dunes and severely eroded beaches along the island, destroying over 100 summer homes.^[18] On nearby Westhampton Beach, 30 homes were destroyed, and about 100 houses were isolated due to two new inlets created during the storm.^[7] Flooding closed all three bridges connecting Long Beach Island to the mainland.^[19] Flooding up to 8 ft (2.4 m) forced about 3,000 people to evacuate from one village on northern Long Island.^[20] About 700 homes were damaged in Bayville along the north coast.^[7] High winds downed trees and power lines, leaving more than 454,000 Long Island Lighting Company customers without power.^[20] In Mamaroneck to the northeast of New York City, a man drowned after being swept away by floodwaters.^[2] In the Albany area, where the storm was known as the Downslope Nor'easter, there was little snow accumulation during the storm's closest approach due to above freezing temperatures. After the storm moved by the region and the winds shifted to the north, about 6 in (150 mm) fell in the city. To the west of Albany in the Helderberg Escarpment and the Catskill Mountains, snowfall totals reached 39 in (990 mm).^[21] Heavy snowfall spread across the state, including a total of 14 in (360 mm) in Niagara Falls.^[10]

In Connecticut , local TV stations named the storm Beth. Across the region, the Northeast Utilities power company reported that 230,684 customers lost electricity during the storm, although all outages were restored within three days.^[22] In Connecticut, the nor'easter produced a storm surge of about 3 ft (1 m), and a high tide of 7.2 ft (2.2 m) was reported in Bridgeport.^[4] This was the highest tide since Hurricane Carol in 1954.^[1] The rising tides killed one man in the state, and there was also one fatality in neighboring Rhode Island.^[2] Along Cape Cod, 15 ft (4.6 m) waves eroded beaches, and evacuations were recommended in two cities.^[23] The storm destroyed severely damaged two houses and destroyed six houses on Nantucket ^[24] and one in Plymouth.^[25] During the storm, more than 20 pilot whales were beached along the cape, of which seven died.^[26] Boston reported a peak tide of 9.35 ft (2.85 m), which was 1.05 ft (0.32 m) less than the record set in 1978.^[5] The high tides caused up to 5 ft (1.5 m) of flooding. The nor'easter produced 27 in (690 mm) of snowfall in a 24 period to the west of the city. Further west, snowfall totals reached around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires, which created 10 ft (3.0 m) snow drifts.^[2] The high accumulations closed schools for a week in the Berkshires, and the cities required National Guard assistance to remove the snow. To the west of the Berkshires, strong east winds prevented significant snow accumulation in valleys.^[21] High tides extended as far north as Portland, Maine, which reported a peak of 7.71 ft (2.35 m).^[5]

Aftermath[edit]

On December 17, President George H. W. Bush declared three Connecticut counties as disaster areas.^[27] The next day, the president declared 12 New Jersey counties as disaster areas, including all of the counties along the Atlantic coast.^[14][28] The declaration allowed for $46 million in relief for public damages and $265 million for insured damage in the state.^[14] On December 21, the president declared 9 Massachusetts counties and 5 New York counties as disaster areas.^[29][30] On January 15, 1993, Sussex County, Delaware was also declared a disaster area.^[31] Across the nor'easter's path, 25,142 people received assistance from Federal Emergency Management Agency, equating to $346,150,356 in federal aid.^[32]

[LoboLeader1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor'easter

 

The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1–2 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. 

I remember being stuck at my brother n laws place up in the (Otis, MA) Berkshires, we got walloped with 34 inches of snow from that noreaster. That storm and the blizzard back in 1996 rank as my favorite 2 winter storms.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LoboLeader1 said:

I remember being stuck at my brother n laws place up in the (Otis, MA) Berkshires, we got walloped with 34 inches of snow from that noreaster. That storm and the blizzard back in 1996 rank as my favorite 2 winter storms.

I was in college back then (freshman) and I remember the subways stopping and having to hitch a ride home lol.  I thought I had it bad, but then I found out my dad was stuck on the 50th floor of his office building and without power and had to walk down fifty flights of stairs.  Anyway when I got home I found all our lawn furniture was at the other end of the street.  That thing lasted for three days, I remember I could hear the sound of the wind roaring that whole time, nonstop.  It was a cold rain here for most of it, with temps in the mid and upper 30s but we did get some snow (1-2 inches) on the backside on day 3 as the storm slowly pulled away.

 

 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

were any of you guys around for December 1992?  I have a really tough time believing this could ever be as bad as that, we had hurricane force gusts for 3 days and round the clock news coverage for three days on the major networks (imagine that!) with large parts of Brooklyn, Queens and coastal New Jersey underwater and massive evacuations going on.

i was,  that was a 2-3 day storm-the winds over that time weakened alot of trees and the storm surge from the sound was only surpassed by Sandy here...this is in and out 9-12 hr of winds then good bye.   

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

The utility companies are planning for this. I know of several people who have relatives that work for Con Edison and they already told them they will be working on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. I'm sure it's the same across the other nearby utility covered areas as well.

PSEG Long Island saying their employees are on call but not to expect much help from surrounding areas. Not sure I’ve ever seen them say straight up to expect outages to be longer than usual. I certainly hope the inversion helps here because it’s not to comforting seeing the NAM and Euro with 70+ for multiple runs out this way.

Our employees will be ready to work through the holiday to ensure that we can continue to deliver reliable power. We expect to have limited assistance from neighboring utilities as they also deal with this storm and holiday schedules. While we will continue efforts to add additional resources, outage durations may be longer than usual.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

PSEG Long Island saying their employees are on call but not to expect much help from surrounding areas. Not sure I’ve ever seen them say straight up to expect outages to be longer than usual. I certainly hope the inversion helps here because it’s not to comforting seeing the NAM and Euro with 70+ for multiple runs out this way.

Our employees will be ready to work through the holiday to ensure that we can continue to deliver reliable power. We expect to have limited assistance from neighboring utilities as they also deal with this storm and holiday schedules. While we will continue efforts to add additional resources, outage durations may be longer than usual.

 

in my experience these kinds of winds are almost a lock for widespread power outages.

 

[justinj]

11 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

PSEG Long Island saying their employees are on call but not to expect much help from surrounding areas. Not sure I’ve ever seen them say straight up to expect outages to be longer than usual. I certainly hope the inversion helps here because it’s not to comforting seeing the NAM and Euro with 70+ for multiple runs out this way.

Our employees will be ready to work through the holiday to ensure that we can continue to deliver reliable power. We expect to have limited assistance from neighboring utilities as they also deal with this storm and holiday schedules. While we will continue efforts to add additional resources, outage durations may be longer than usual.

 

Which means they’ll do nothing

[justinj]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

in my experience these kinds of winds are almost a lock for widespread power outages.

 

I’m still not buying 70+..I also think we’d have to have a lot of 70+ mph gusts to knock out a lot of power. I don’t think their will be as many power outages as anticipated 

[NJwx85]

00z 3k NAM soundings still shows an inversion.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, justinj said:

I’m still not buying 70+..I also think we’d have to have a lot of 70+ mph gusts to knock out a lot of power. I don’t think their will be as many power outages as anticipated 

60s seems more likely with maybe an isolated 70, like with the last big event

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

00z 3k NAM soundings still shows an inversion.

I wouldn't be shocked to see temps much higher than forecast thus making the airmass more unstable. 

Our wind events as of late have been solid.

[justinj]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

60s seems more likely with maybe an isolated 70, like with the last big event

I agree

[Kborne]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

i was,  that was a 2-3 day storm-the winds over that time weakened alot of trees and the storm surge from the sound was only surpassed by Sandy here...this is in and out 9-12 hr of winds then good bye.   

I was in the Coast Guard at Jones Beach during that storm. I remember it well. 

[WEATHER53]

91 and 92 back to back and 91 flooded Assatesgue VA and killed all that great  pine tree forest you could drive and hike thru. 

[dWave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

were any of you guys around for December 1992?  I have a really tough time believing this could ever be as bad as that, we had hurricane force gusts for 3 days and round the clock news coverage for three days on the major networks (imagine that!) with large parts of Brooklyn, Queens and coastal New Jersey underwater and massive evacuations going on.

Dec 92 was the most memorable weather event of my life until Sandy. At least when it comes to non snow events. (However it did snow inland I believe). I didnt go to school that day but I learned the concept of "storm surge" watching footage of ppl trying to walk though white caps in Lower Manhattan, rescues on the FDR, and houses fall into the ocean in Brooklyn. Most major bridges had to close and subways crippled with flooding.

Little did I know I was 4 yrs away from the Blizzard of 96 and the only snow days of my life, as NYC schools closed for the 1st time since the 70s, before I was born. It was mind blowing stuff, especially since this was before the unprecedented snowfall run starting in the 2000s. That's another topic though.

[wdrag]

Topic Edit 508AM: Added HIGH IMPACT and the time back in to the topic and extended 4 hours.  Strongest winds in NJ/ne PA/se NYS roughly 10PM-4A,  NYC/se NYS 1A-6A, LI/CT 2A-to possibly as late as 9A/25 e tip of LI. Minimum wind gust on LI 55 MPH with max 75MPH, NYC-se NYS minimum wind 50 MPH isolated max 70 MPH.  Please follow NWS on all warnings/statements. I'll leave it yourselves to add graphics etc as need be.. Have not looked at soundings but everything else discussed in yesterdays 518AM topic edit including HSLC SVR's continues.  We may reach within 2F of the record 66F-2015 max temp for Christmas Day at CP. Flooding of some of the larger rivers, if it is to occur, may be delayed 24 hours or more after after the rain quits Christmas morning,  Max rainfall axis in our forum looks to me to be CT, isolated 4", not including snowmelt runoff.  If anything is missed, please let me know.  Thank you.

[nycsnow]

Upton thinks rain should help mix winds down

[nycsnow]

All the models are basically the same as far as timing and gust potential I guess it’s just comes down to the inversion now, upton thinks with the rain we should be able to mix down 50-60kt

[nycsnow]

Con Ed trucks all over already 

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Upton thinks rain should help mix winds down

Rain stabilizes the lower atmosphere, convection mixed winds down not heavy rain