LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: When out on the roof there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter... Twas the NAM predicting winds of 87 miles per hour. wow that's Sandy level if it happens and out of the south which would have a strong surge component here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoth said: How did you guys do in 10/17? That was a beast out here and especially out towards eastern Mass. We were gusting in the 60s, close to 70 I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was the strongest wind gust recorded in Central Park. But that was an ENE flow event. This is more a SE to S flow event. Wind Records (Peak Gusts in MPH) Location Measurement Date(s) Central Park (1951-pres.) ENE 78 mph December 2, 1974 that was the strongest wind gust recorded at NYC ever....78 mph on 12/2/74? what about Hazel and its 113 mph? That was at the Battery out of the south wasn't it? Do you have the highest winds reported at the various stations? I think Sandy holds JFK, EWR and LGA records though not sure. Dec 1992 hit 78 at LGA and Mar 2010 hit 80 at JFK just going by memory. Out of all of the above Dec 1992 caused the most damage (and it was the most widespread)....3 days of horrendousness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM wind gusts are 60 mph+ just inland and 70 mph+ near the shore. I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. Not much snowpack south of I-78 either. Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 this is a pretty stout low level inversion 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is a pretty stout low level inversion Sorry can someone explain briefly what a stout low level inversion would mean for our area?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Sorry can someone explain briefly what a stout low level inversion would mean for our area?? I’m twice as dumb on here as I am in real life but the inversion should keep the worst of the wind from reaching the surface. Correct @forkyfork? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Sorry can someone explain briefly what a stout low level inversion would mean for our area?? Less wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs pretty similar to nam not sure what soundings show though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. Not much snowpack south of I-78 either. Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right? That’s the challenge with the raw 2m temperatures. They are often too low with surface temperatures during very strong WAA events. The NAM MOS is 61 at EWR instead of 55 raw. KEWR NAM MOS GUIDANCE 12/23/2020 1200 UTC DT /DEC 23/DEC 24 /DEC 25 /DEC 26 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 41 59 53 53 27 TMP 44 46 44 42 42 43 45 50 53 54 55 59 61 61 59 53 51 47 42 32 28 Raw TSRA 008OVC389 0.0 2.3 45 12/25 09Z 55 54 159 29 0.27 0.01 559 558 11.0 -13.1 998 100 -TSRA 006OVC387 0.0 8.3 48 12/25 12Z 55 54 196 12 0.75 0.06 557 556 7.4 -12.9 999 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs would have has getting into the mid 60s with 60+ dews. That would make it more likely to have us see those winds come down. That's where the uncertainty lies right now. If the inversion holds then we're probably looking at 40-45mph gusts max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 If the 1000-500 thickness gets to 561dm it will get to around 61F or a bit higher in rainy BL wind in excess of 22 kt. In this case the NAM BL wind is 43KT... about as high as Ive seen it in a non-hurricane. I'll temper the NAM a bit for exuberance but it won't be more than 7 MPH too high, imo. The inversion looks more isothermal to me, and that 08z sfc temp is 57(probably SST nudged down). Warm the sfc temp to 60 or 61 and it becomes more unstable. Finally, a 12z map of HRRR max gusts (not HRRRX) for our area... a very good low starting point I think. Also, the HRRR is picking up on short narrow lines of convection after 06z in the Hud Valley LI eastward portion. This is very similar to the tamer ECMWF. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Wouldn’t the convection help bring the stronger winds down? The squall line looks super intense on the high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wouldn’t the convection help bring the stronger winds down? The squall line looks super intense on the high res models. I would tend to believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I’m twice as dumb on here as I am in real life but the inversion should keep the worst of the wind from reaching the surface. Correct @forkyfork? Irish, I’ll see your “twice” and double it. As always ..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This would be a new record for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Sorry can someone explain briefly what a stout low level inversion would mean for our area?? it means more stable air near the surface which would limit transfer of wind downward. the models could be too cool like bluewave mentioned but i'm still cautious about big gusts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs euro nam all consistent with the gust now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: it means more stable air near the surface which would limit transfer of wind downward. the models could be too cool like bluewave mentioned but i'm still cautious about big gusts What do the other models show as far as inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: I will be going to my aunt's house in Staten Island on Christmas. The traffic is going to be insane. They may shut down the Verrazano bridge if those winds develop. The bridge runs pretty much east-west, so southerly winds will have a big effect on traffic up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Flood watch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-240400- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0005.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/ Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like they went with an advisory here with gusts up to 55mph. Playing it safe in case the inversion is too prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Nam even more impressive with the winds wow spots of 80-90mph gust popping off shave 20 off that still impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hi! Good to see warnings up for Wind and Flooding in the various locations and watches elsewhere. In the morning, I'll add an OBS-NOWCAST thread for 6P Thursday-~6A or 10A Friday depending on what the 00z-06z/24 modeling consensus looks to be. Not much more I can add tonight. I know some of us will be wrapped up in Christmas eve activities and while I anticipate the ability to post at 5AM Christmas Day, lack of Internet may force me to forego??? All the best on somehow enjoying yet another big wind event. As with all topics, summary data will be added to the primary thread sometime late Christmas Day, or day after Christmas. Reminder while flooding will occur, note that larger slower rising rivers may not exceed flood stage til a day or two after the rain ends. 744P/23 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Pardon my reaction, but this makes me very sad to be happening on Christmas eve and morning. Hope all stay safe and warm especially if without power. Sigh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Pardon my reaction, but this makes me very sad to be happening on Christmas eve and morning. Hope all stay safe and warm especially if without power. Sigh. The utility companies are planning for this. I know of several people who have relatives that work for Con Edison and they already told them they will be working on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. I'm sure it's the same across the other nearby utility covered areas as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 hours ago, bluewave said: That’s the challenge with the raw 2m temperatures. They are often too low with surface temperatures during very strong WAA events. The NAM MOS is 61 at EWR instead of 55 raw. KEWR NAM MOS GUIDANCE 12/23/2020 1200 UTC DT /DEC 23/DEC 24 /DEC 25 /DEC 26 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 41 59 53 53 27 TMP 44 46 44 42 42 43 45 50 53 54 55 59 61 61 59 53 51 47 42 32 28 Raw TSRA 008OVC389 0.0 2.3 45 12/25 09Z 55 54 159 29 0.27 0.01 559 558 11.0 -13.1 998 100 -TSRA 006OVC387 0.0 8.3 48 12/25 12Z 55 54 196 12 0.75 0.06 557 556 7.4 -12.9 999 100 would having this happen in the middle of the night mean a little less of an impact than if it were happening in the middle of the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 hours ago, weathermedic said: They may shut down the Verrazano bridge if those winds develop. The bridge runs pretty much east-west, so southerly winds will have a big effect on traffic up there. they should be taking the lights down everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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