Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Windwise, there's been enough events the last 4 months to bring down alot of dead wood-tropical storm Isais, the November windstorm etc. so this may not be as bad as it would ordinarily be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think it's long gone in most places on this subforum by 6am. Temps will be in the upper 50's with heavy rain Not sure how much snowpack will be left even at the ski resorts by Christmas morning. The Euro has 50° Dewpoints and 2.00”+ heavy rains around the Catskills and Poconos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not sure how much snowpack will be left even at the ski resorts by Christmas morning. The Euro has 50° Dewpoints and 2.00”+ heavy rains around the Catskills and Poconos. Yeah a real kick in the teeth for them. It has been a terrible start to the ski season. Most of the area resorts opened up 2 to 3 weeks late, had minimal trail coverage, then got this burst of snow and opened up a bunch of trails on natural snow alone in anticipation of the holiday. People will be quite shocked when they arrive at a Catskill resort on 12/26 to have 10 trails open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s2sailorlis Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Windwise, there's been enough events the last 4 months to bring down alot of dead wood-tropical storm Isais, the November windstorm etc. so this may not be as bad as it would ordinarily be. i hope so. i'm in Fairfield and already lost power 3 times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, s2sailorlis said: i hope so. i'm in Fairfield and already lost power 3 times this year. I've had more power outages here this year than in the 17 yrs prior since we moved into this house. Lost it for 4 days for Isaisis but got lucky with Sandy, Irene, March 2010 etc where it was only out for a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Yeah a real kick in the teeth for them. It has been a terrible start to the ski season. Most of the area resorts opened up 2 to 3 weeks late, had minimal trail coverage, then got this burst of snow and opened up a bunch of trails on natural snow alone in anticipation of the holiday. People will be quite shocked when they arrive at a Catskill resort on 12/26 to have 10 trails open. most places should be able to start making snow from late day Xmas day and the weekend though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s2sailorlis Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I've had more power outages here this year than in the 17 yrs prior since we moved into this house. Lost it for 4 days for Isaisis but got lucky with Sandy, Irene, March 2010 etc where it was only out for a few hrs. i pigtailed my furnace so can connect my inverter generator, and run some things. but installing a proper transfer switch in a few weeks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, lee59 said: For anyone interested I did read that the NWS says a White Christmas is having 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Could be an interesting call this Christmas. If the storm Thursday was 12 hours late (unlikely) they may have eked out the technical win with a 7:00am measurement of an inch. Either way this F'n Christmas Eve/Christmas travesty is getting so common the last decade I did half expect it, even right after the last storm finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: most places should be able to start making snow from late day Xmas day and the weekend though. You know what I observed? They are being very stingy with their snow making this year. I was there on several 25° days and one or two guns were on. They are all capacity limited and afraid of a shut down. I digress. Back to eve rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If the storm Thursday was 12 hours late (unlikely) they may have eked out the technical win with a 7:00am measurement of an inch. Either way this F'n Christmas Eve/Christmas travesty is getting so common the last decade I did half expect it, even right after the last storm finished. We had a white Christmas just north of city four years ago. The snow fell on Thursday I said well we’re all going to have it this year. The models really under performed on the warmth with this cutter. It wasnt apparent until the weekend that we were going for 60 on xmas...again! Heck, the whole week looks above normal now with exception of 26 and 27. Defaulting back to short, transient bouts of BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You know what I observed? They are being very stingy with their snow making this year. I was there on several 25° days and one or two guns were on. They are all capacity limited and afraid of a shut down. I digress. Back to eve rainstorm... I usually go up to Mohawk in NW CT. At least from what I can see on the cams, they are blowing snow when they can, but makes sense that some places are worried about a shutdown. Luckily here-most things remain open.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I'm not expecting to lose power here. Even with if the winds are actually as strong as indicated, if I didn't lose power in TS Isaias then i probably won't on Christmas. My dad and I got the generator ready just in case though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I'm not expecting to lose power here. Even with if the winds are actually as strong as indicated, if I didn't lose power in TS Isaias then i probably won't on Christmas. My dad and I got the generator ready just in case though... Evergreen trees would be the main concern-some of them were completely uprooted here in the 11/15/20 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 NWS issuing high wind watches for the area as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: NWS issuing high wind watches for the area as I type. only the coast will go with a high wind watch across Long Island, Queens, Brooklyn, and coastal SE CT where the llj will be the strongest and highest confidence of warning-level gusts will be. Advisory-criteria winds could occur for at least the remaining coastal areas and nearby inland areas. Strongest sustained winds and gusts would be from late evening through around daybreak Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, weathermedic said: NWS issuing high wind watches for the area as I type. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 349 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 CTZ011-012-NYZ075-078>081-176>179-231015- /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.201225T0200Z-201225T1400Z/ Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 349 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I guess advisories for us N&W folk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Still looks pretty meh given the strong inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Still looks pretty meh given the strong inversion Most of the folks in the NE thread are ignoring that and just wanting damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Still looks pretty meh given the strong inversion Models are trending slower with the front allowing us to stay in the warm sector longer thus making it more likely we'll break through the inversion. Snow cover will also be down to nothing by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Models are trending slower with the front allowing us to stay in the warm sector longer thus making it more likely we'll break through the inversion. Snow cover will also be down to nothing by then. This was never about snow cover, will be long gone by this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This was never about snow cover, will be long gone by this threat yeah most of it will go tomorrow into xmas eve day. Temps stay above freezing tomorrow night around 40-45 then well into the 50's Thursday day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: I guess advisories for us N&W folk? Think we'll get accumulating backend snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Think we'll get accumulating backend snow? Could be some. Drier air will rush in with the front, however, probably cutting things off too quickly for anything more than coatings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Evergreen trees would be the main concern-some of them were completely uprooted here in the 11/15/20 event True, there was actually one near me that uprooted in last weeks storm, luckily I don't have a lot of evergreen trees on my block so I should be alright. The last time I saw widespread deciduous trees fall in the winter was back during the March 2010 storm, but I doubt the wind will be that bad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Flood watch issued to our north. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Watch in effect for much of the region (except Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton and northern Warren counties) from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday... A storm system and cold front approaching from the west will bring the threat for moderate to heavy rain to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. In addition, there is the possibility for a several hour period of strong winds and above freezing temperatures, which may allow for significant snowmelt. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected Thursday afternoon and night, with greatest amounts expected across the SE Catskills. The extent of snowmelt will depend on how slow the front moves through the region, with slower movement allowing for a greater length of time for warm temperatures and strong winds to ripen and potentially melt out the snowpack. This potential for melting currently appears greatest across western New England, extending into the mid Hudson Valley and SE Catskills, however could occur farther north if the front moves slower. Due to this potential for heavy rain, and possible significant snow melt, a flood watch has been issued for much of the region from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Trends will be watched closely, especially regarding snowmelt potential, over the next few days to determine potential extent of flooding. Minor to possibly moderate river flooding will be possible along with urban and small stream flooding, especially where storm drains remain clogged from snow and ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Flood watch issued to our north. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Watch in effect for much of the region (except Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton and northern Warren counties) from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday... A storm system and cold front approaching from the west will bring the threat for moderate to heavy rain to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. In addition, there is the possibility for a several hour period of strong winds and above freezing temperatures, which may allow for significant snowmelt. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected Thursday afternoon and night, with greatest amounts expected across the SE Catskills. The extent of snowmelt will depend on how slow the front moves through the region, with slower movement allowing for a greater length of time for warm temperatures and strong winds to ripen and potentially melt out the snowpack. This potential for melting currently appears greatest across western New England, extending into the mid Hudson Valley and SE Catskills, however could occur farther north if the front moves slower. Due to this potential for heavy rain, and possible significant snow melt, a flood watch has been issued for much of the region from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Trends will be watched closely, especially regarding snowmelt potential, over the next few days to determine potential extent of flooding. Minor to possibly moderate river flooding will be possible along with urban and small stream flooding, especially where storm drains remain clogged from snow and ice. Lots of flood watches issued for inland locations due to the snowpack melt & runoff w/rainfall. Nice call days out on the potential! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Flood watch issued to our north. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Watch in effect for much of the region (except Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton and northern Warren counties) from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday... A storm system and cold front approaching from the west will bring the threat for moderate to heavy rain to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. In addition, there is the possibility for a several hour period of strong winds and above freezing temperatures, which may allow for significant snowmelt. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected Thursday afternoon and night, with greatest amounts expected across the SE Catskills. The extent of snowmelt will depend on how slow the front moves through the region, with slower movement allowing for a greater length of time for warm temperatures and strong winds to ripen and potentially melt out the snowpack. This potential for melting currently appears greatest across western New England, extending into the mid Hudson Valley and SE Catskills, however could occur farther north if the front moves slower. Due to this potential for heavy rain, and possible significant snow melt, a flood watch has been issued for much of the region from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Trends will be watched closely, especially regarding snowmelt potential, over the next few days to determine potential extent of flooding. Minor to possibly moderate river flooding will be possible along with urban and small stream flooding, especially where storm drains remain clogged from snow and ice. More concerned with flooding here than winds (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: More concerned with flooding here than winds (for now) Me too. We still have alot of snow OTG and then add warm temps and 2 inches of rain. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Me too. We still have alot of snow OTG and then add warm temps and 2 inches of rain. Yikes. I’d think even more concern lies where the 3 feet+ fell. Sure it was more powder there but it’s obviously compacted by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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