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December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs


pasnownut
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Snowfall rates will increase over the next two hours, however, the warm air aloft is approaching...and I expect sleet to mix in over SoLanco by 5 or 6pm...and likely all the way to the Turnpike by ~8pm. There will be a change back to all snow around midnight, so really there are 3 phases to this storm: 1. front-end snow (now), 2. period of icy mix, 3. back-end snow (after midnight). This scenario is what my 6 - 12" inch forecast (issued yesterday) was based on...and includes the possibility of an inch or two of sleet during "phase 2". I've always been a believer in a mid-storm "changeover" across soPA counties for several reasons, including (simply) climatology of snowstorms in Lanco. But the northward extend of sleet may exceed my expectations...in which case I've overdone snow totals in the T'pike corridor.

https://twitter.com/horstweather?lang=en

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Just now, NeffsvilleWx said:

I was going to post that and make a comment - in all seriousness, when was the last time that a changeover didn't happen sooner, or end up farther north, than anticipated? I remember so many storms that were only to mix south of the turnpike that ended up near IPT. I'm NOT suggesting that will happen this time, but I have to believe that the idea of my first 2 points has some merit. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Still snowing in Parkton, MD which is good. 

If we can hang on for a few more hours, I'll still be happy.  With these rates, we'll do alright.  Not 20" alright, but we'll have snow on the ground for days w/ the sleet that is progged for us.  Just turnin lemons into lemonade....

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was going to post that and make a comment - in all seriousness, when was the last time that a changeover didn't happen sooner, or end up farther north, than anticipated? I remember so many storms that were only to mix south of the turnpike that ended up near IPT. I'm NOT suggesting that will happen this time, but I have to believe that the idea of my first 2 points has some merit. 

There is truth to that. I've seen many a forecast bust for to mix and change much farther north. For my backyard, if the Lehigh Valley or Reading changes, we go over about 15-30 minutes later, even if it's not forecasted.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

If we can hang on for a few more hours, I'll still be happy.  With these rates, we'll do alright.  Not 20" alright, but we'll have snow on the ground for days w/ the sleet that is progged for us.  Just turnin lemons into lemonade....

You got that right! It is piling up very quickly. We're going to have a glacier tomorrow. Hoping that the glacier is a deep one. :)  

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