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December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs


pasnownut
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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sleet line currently extends from Northeast Maryland SW through Baltimore City and on SW through the northern DC burbs. It's made a significant jog north in the past hour. 

if you look at HRRR around 1z is where it is up into the LSV. Hope not to the extent it is showing on this model but between 1z - 3z that is where the risk is. Edit: maybe to 4z and then back to snow. 

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Storm developing as expected w/ heavy snow now falling in Hagerstown, MD...so that will arrive here ~4pm or so. However, a deep near-freezing layer (3k'-7k') will arrive over southern PA this evening--so I remain convinced of an extended period of sleet, esp south of Route 30.

 

https://twitter.com/HorstWeather/status/1339283334678110208?s=20

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Areas north of the Turnpike will get mostly snow...where 12"+ is most likely...w/ up to 20" possible in central Mtns. Accumulations south of the T'pike will depend on the duration of icy mix...but 6"-12" (snow & sleet) across central York & LanCo remains the most likely outcome.

https://twitter.com/HorstWeather/status/1339283335995068416?s=20

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19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sleet line currently extends from Northeast Maryland SW through Baltimore City and on SW through the northern DC burbs. It's made a significant jog north in the past hour. 

i would like to see that sleet line slow down a bit.   next band coming up is the 2"/hr stuff.   

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Wow on the 18z HRRR. And these Kuchera totals aren't doing anything mind blowing ratio wise. Did some calculating and KAOO and UNV get to their ~2ft amounts via  14-15:1 ratios. Selinsgrove (SEG) and IPT get to their nearly 32" totals via a 13-14:1 average. This is doable if the QPF ends up that high in the deform bands. 

hrrr-conus-pennsylvania-total_snow_kuchera-8228000.thumb.png.89295d7323c02fb2d6f2a4dd3bd2c5e2.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Yep. And in the spring/summer, TOR warnings are usually too little, too late. Near impossible to see EF0/EF1 couplets at 7k' AGL

First night in my current house, had a TOR pass within 2 miles. Had no idea until I went to lowes the following morning and saw damage.

Yep same deal in the summer. Two of the most severe weather fatality situations and you can’t see it. Squalls in the winter, tornadoes in the summer. WGALs Doppler has been down for years. It’s a shame 

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31 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow on the 18z HRRR. And these Kuchera totals aren't doing anything mind blowing ratio wise. Did some calculating and KAOO and UNV get to their ~2ft amounts via  14-15:1 ratios. Selinsgrove (SEG) and IPT get to their nearly 32" totals via a 13-14:1 average. This is doable if the QPF ends up that high in the deform bands. 

hrrr-conus-pennsylvania-total_snow_kuchera-8228000.thumb.png.89295d7323c02fb2d6f2a4dd3bd2c5e2.png

 

 

Think I have a shot at 12" back here?

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