AllWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, paweather said: Right here folks. 18z HRRR: Yeah. That’s the good good right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, AllWeather said: Yeah. That’s the good good right there. You certainly see it developing down to our south. Maryland OBS are impressive with Heavy snow rates right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 What I am most concerned about on the HRRR is the mixing it is showing later in the evening, and also a potential dryslot but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: You certainly see it developing down to our south. Maryland OBS are impressive with Heavy snow rates right now. Almost 60 dBz returns around Germantown right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Temp falling slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sleet line currently extends from Northeast Maryland SW through Baltimore City and on SW through the northern DC burbs. It's made a significant jog north in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1.1", snow rate is just over 1/2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sleet line currently extends from Northeast Maryland SW through Baltimore City and on SW through the northern DC burbs. It's made a significant jog north in the past hour. if you look at HRRR around 1z is where it is up into the LSV. Hope not to the extent it is showing on this model but between 1z - 3z that is where the risk is. Edit: maybe to 4z and then back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Quote Storm developing as expected w/ heavy snow now falling in Hagerstown, MD...so that will arrive here ~4pm or so. However, a deep near-freezing layer (3k'-7k') will arrive over southern PA this evening--so I remain convinced of an extended period of sleet, esp south of Route 30. https://twitter.com/HorstWeather/status/1339283334678110208?s=20 Quote Areas north of the Turnpike will get mostly snow...where 12"+ is most likely...w/ up to 20" possible in central Mtns. Accumulations south of the T'pike will depend on the duration of icy mix...but 6"-12" (snow & sleet) across central York & LanCo remains the most likely outcome. https://twitter.com/HorstWeather/status/1339283335995068416?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Dual pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I can't accurately measure visibility but I'm approaching heavy snow. It's cranking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yard-stick Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Snow has picked up now...about to pass 1" mark and visibility has dropped significantly. Starting to look like a legit PA snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sleet line currently extends from Northeast Maryland SW through Baltimore City and on SW through the northern DC burbs. It's made a significant jog north in the past hour. i would like to see that sleet line slow down a bit. next band coming up is the 2"/hr stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2:30 update: +SN, 2.5" on the ground in State College. Visibility under 1/2 mile with the best rates of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Wow on the 18z HRRR. And these Kuchera totals aren't doing anything mind blowing ratio wise. Did some calculating and KAOO and UNV get to their ~2ft amounts via 14-15:1 ratios. Selinsgrove (SEG) and IPT get to their nearly 32" totals via a 13-14:1 average. This is doable if the QPF ends up that high in the deform bands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Like how Philly still ends up with 5" more than Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 What's the biggest storm on record at IPT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: i would like to see that sleet line slow down a bit. next band coming up is the 2"/hr stuff. Me too...it's north of Towson now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Like how Philly still ends up with 5" more than Lancaster. Yeah, its like someone at the NWS has a beef w/ someone in Lanco. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Yep. And in the spring/summer, TOR warnings are usually too little, too late. Near impossible to see EF0/EF1 couplets at 7k' AGL First night in my current house, had a TOR pass within 2 miles. Had no idea until I went to lowes the following morning and saw damage. Yep same deal in the summer. Two of the most severe weather fatality situations and you can’t see it. Squalls in the winter, tornadoes in the summer. WGALs Doppler has been down for years. It’s a shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 An Upstate Poster coming to say good luck to you guys down here, looks like a possible top 10 all timer coming through? Post lots of pictures and videos, will be following it closely tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2.9" with moderate-heavy snow. Visibility ~1/4mi. 1" in the last hour. That rate has been about the same since a bit before 1pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 At 3:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow moderately. I have picked up an additional 0.7" in the past hour for a storm total of 1.8". Temperature 23.7 / 21.2. During this next hour the real fun should start to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 A bit concerned even Harrisburg flips to sleet a bit later tonight. I mean, it’s irrelevant, but it matters when padding stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just hit 1 inch in Elysburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HEAVY Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Almost 2" north of Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Wow on the 18z HRRR. And these Kuchera totals aren't doing anything mind blowing ratio wise. Did some calculating and KAOO and UNV get to their ~2ft amounts via 14-15:1 ratios. Selinsgrove (SEG) and IPT get to their nearly 32" totals via a 13-14:1 average. This is doable if the QPF ends up that high in the deform bands. Think I have a shot at 12" back here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Pittsburgh: ~3.5” after a great band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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