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December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs


pasnownut
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Dry air...sleet...anything to f**k up a good snowstorm...

Still all snow here. Just measured 4" on the dot, but had to shovel for the dog, so we start over. It's been 6 hours since onset, so I don't think it'll mess up the numbers too bad. Air temp is 23 in my backyard, but I just don't like seeing that dry slot or the pingers moving north so fast. Scares me a bit.

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Interesting. Wunderground really cut back my totals saying only another 5-8in of snow through daybreak. Still be a good storm but not a monster like the models were showing. Are we really looking at dryslotting that bad or switching totally to sleet?

That dry air means business. It will make it to NYC too.

I’m just hoping that upper level energy can get the machine going again.


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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tom Russell (CBS21) says dry air is gonna hurt everyone in the LSV.

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Now hearing sleet on the windows. Not ideal in Harrisburg. 

So the pingers did make it to H-burg. I'm pretty surprised the mix line got up that far, so looks like the NAM et al ended up being more correct thermally aloft. 

In terms of the dry air post I mean yea it does appear the slot is going to get into the LSV, although judging by LWX radar trends its more of a slot of lighter rates than an actual dry slot. Since the columns already busted, the lighter rates will probably ensure some mixing continues until the heavier bands start shifting back east/northeast later tonight and heavier rates and dynamics likely turn things back to snow. The pivot isn't completely obvious yet but it does appear like it's showing some signs of starting, so watch radar trends on CCX radar. 

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7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Actually, the 22z HRRR wants to take the sleet all the way up to Scranton. Can that even be right?

As an area that has a TON of experience with overrunning, the mix line is almost universally significantly north of what is modeled. We've had times that we were supposed to stay all snow and the mix line would end up pushing north of 80 towards Erie.

My experience is that unfortunately warm air always wins...the warm tongue of death is what we call it out here. 

 

@MAG5035 Not sure it is really similar to our overrunning event issues we always have, but I always assume a mix line is going to end up 50 miles + north. 

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CTP has this near term update this evening.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Lots of sleet over York and Lanc counties and even working up
toward Harriburg and Lebanon, now. This will hold the numbers
down, but may make it even more difficult travel-wise since
people drive on the sleet and compact it, making it a sheet of
ice. That can be tough for the plows to clear. Snow has returned
to THV, though as the precip has lightened up. Dry slot
expanding a bit as it moves into far srn PA. But, instability
still there with thundersnow over Mt Davis (Somerset Co). The
dry slot is somewhat concerning as any break of a couple of
hours would kill the snow totals if we don`t see the N-S
oriented bands set up and move at a turtle-like pace. There are
bands over wrn PA (with the thundersnow) and it still looks like
we will have the same conditions over central PA for the first
half of the night. The lack of seeding over the clouds in the
dry slot means it will be a snizzly/freezing drizzle which could
fall for those couple of hours from now until 8 or 9 PM. The
HRRR has the snow closing in around the dry slot about that
time. Will mention --ZR for the next few hrs in the srn
mtns/lower susq.
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Well folks, I don't have to tell you that I went over to all sleet very quickly shortly before 6:00.  It went from the highest rates to CRASH.  It's a good thing I'm 61 and not 31 or I'd be incredibly upset right now, especially when I was anticipating 18" possible with 12" a lock.  Now who knows if the backside after the change back can deliver the real goods?

I cleared my board and also melted down my snow because of the sleet falling.  Some sleet made it in and has contaminated my liquid equivalent a little bit.  I measured 0.61" of liquid for the 5.5" of snow.  That comes out to 9:1 SLR.  In all likelihood the true SLR was probably 10:1 or maybe even a little bit higher before the sleet arrived.  Temp is 23.9 / 21.9 with light to moderate sleet falling.

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Amen, never ever ever wish for zr. It’s only disastrous, nothing more. Sleet at least kinda looks like snow. 

Honestly, one of my favorite storms as a kid was one where we had heavy sleet for like 6-8 hours. Best sled riding I ever had. Then flipped to very heavy snow for the last 2-3 hours. 

Always wondered what I would have got if it stayed all snow.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly, one of my favorite storms as a kid was one where we had heavy sleet for like 6-8 hours. Best sled riding I ever had. Then flipped to very heavy snow for the last 2-3 hours. 

Always wondered what I would have got if it stayed all snow.

During the Blizzard of 93 in Bethlehem PA we flipped to heavy sleet for 6 hours, then flipped back to heavy snow for a couple of hours and still ended up with 17 inches. I often wonder how much we'd have gotten if it would have stayed all snow.

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