canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Not sure if agree with that. Loop the Sterling radar. I agree with you - posted as a “hmmmm ok” thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell (CBS21) says dry air is gonna hurt everyone in the LSV. Dry slot hasn't really advanced north of the Turnpike, going to be a close for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 inches of snow in Marysville as of a little after 6 pm, but we have now mixed with sleet as well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Dry air...sleet...anything to f**k up a good snowstorm... Still all snow here. Just measured 4" on the dot, but had to shovel for the dog, so we start over. It's been 6 hours since onset, so I don't think it'll mess up the numbers too bad. Air temp is 23 in my backyard, but I just don't like seeing that dry slot or the pingers moving north so fast. Scares me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Dry slot seems to be filling in as it approaches Altoona. Maybe we can avoid it in UNV? Need these bands to take a more N-S orientation like the one approaching Johnstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Philly probably flips to plain rain pretty soon, at least for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Almost 100% sleet. Now I wait for next round of snow. Time for a drink. . You waited this long ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, daxx said: I’m at 7.2 inches. Hoping to get 2 to 4 on backside. Man I hope that backside # is legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Actually, the 22z HRRR wants to take the sleet all the way up to Scranton. Can that even be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We need the pivot to happen and the low to start moving east then the good stuff comes back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Interesting. Wunderground really cut back my totals saying only another 5-8in of snow through daybreak. Still be a good storm but not a monster like the models were showing. Are we really looking at dryslotting that bad or switching totally to sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Interesting. Wunderground really cut back my totals saying only another 5-8in of snow through daybreak. Still be a good storm but not a monster like the models were showing. Are we really looking at dryslotting that bad or switching totally to sleet?That dry air means business. It will make it to NYC too.I’m just hoping that upper level energy can get the machine going again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell (CBS21) says dry air is gonna hurt everyone in the LSV. 13 minutes ago, canderson said: Now hearing sleet on the windows. Not ideal in Harrisburg. So the pingers did make it to H-burg. I'm pretty surprised the mix line got up that far, so looks like the NAM et al ended up being more correct thermally aloft. In terms of the dry air post I mean yea it does appear the slot is going to get into the LSV, although judging by LWX radar trends its more of a slot of lighter rates than an actual dry slot. Since the columns already busted, the lighter rates will probably ensure some mixing continues until the heavier bands start shifting back east/northeast later tonight and heavier rates and dynamics likely turn things back to snow. The pivot isn't completely obvious yet but it does appear like it's showing some signs of starting, so watch radar trends on CCX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Holy crap is this some heavy sleet. Temp up to 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: Actually, the 22z HRRR wants to take the sleet all the way up to Scranton. Can that even be right? As an area that has a TON of experience with overrunning, the mix line is almost universally significantly north of what is modeled. We've had times that we were supposed to stay all snow and the mix line would end up pushing north of 80 towards Erie. My experience is that unfortunately warm air always wins...the warm tongue of death is what we call it out here. @MAG5035 Not sure it is really similar to our overrunning event issues we always have, but I always assume a mix line is going to end up 50 miles + north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: Actually, the 22z HRRR wants to take the sleet all the way up to Scranton. Can that even be right? It's happened before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 CTP has this near term update this evening. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Lots of sleet over York and Lanc counties and even working up toward Harriburg and Lebanon, now. This will hold the numbers down, but may make it even more difficult travel-wise since people drive on the sleet and compact it, making it a sheet of ice. That can be tough for the plows to clear. Snow has returned to THV, though as the precip has lightened up. Dry slot expanding a bit as it moves into far srn PA. But, instability still there with thundersnow over Mt Davis (Somerset Co). The dry slot is somewhat concerning as any break of a couple of hours would kill the snow totals if we don`t see the N-S oriented bands set up and move at a turtle-like pace. There are bands over wrn PA (with the thundersnow) and it still looks like we will have the same conditions over central PA for the first half of the night. The lack of seeding over the clouds in the dry slot means it will be a snizzly/freezing drizzle which could fall for those couple of hours from now until 8 or 9 PM. The HRRR has the snow closing in around the dry slot about that time. Will mention --ZR for the next few hrs in the srn mtns/lower susq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 At 6:30 +SN and 8” - it’s dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Well folks, I don't have to tell you that I went over to all sleet very quickly shortly before 6:00. It went from the highest rates to CRASH. It's a good thing I'm 61 and not 31 or I'd be incredibly upset right now, especially when I was anticipating 18" possible with 12" a lock. Now who knows if the backside after the change back can deliver the real goods? I cleared my board and also melted down my snow because of the sleet falling. Some sleet made it in and has contaminated my liquid equivalent a little bit. I measured 0.61" of liquid for the 5.5" of snow. That comes out to 9:1 SLR. In all likelihood the true SLR was probably 10:1 or maybe even a little bit higher before the sleet arrived. Temp is 23.9 / 21.9 with light to moderate sleet falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just no freezing rain I like Power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, dcfox1 said: Just no freezing rain I like Power. Amen, never ever ever wish for zr. It’s only disastrous, nothing more. Sleet at least kinda looks like snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Wind is gusting pretty good with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Amen, never ever ever wish for zr. It’s only disastrous, nothing more. Sleet at least kinda looks like snow. Honestly, one of my favorite storms as a kid was one where we had heavy sleet for like 6-8 hours. Best sled riding I ever had. Then flipped to very heavy snow for the last 2-3 hours. Always wondered what I would have got if it stayed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Low looks to be on the Delmarva right now. Hope the pivot happens soon. Low goes east per the models and our backend dessert snow starts again. Per GFS NAM this can be intense rates like earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Measured close to 6 inches here. Waiting for the megaband to move in...hoping for thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Honestly, one of my favorite storms as a kid was one where we had heavy sleet for like 6-8 hours. Best sled riding I ever had. Then flipped to very heavy snow for the last 2-3 hours. Always wondered what I would have got if it stayed all snow. During the Blizzard of 93 in Bethlehem PA we flipped to heavy sleet for 6 hours, then flipped back to heavy snow for a couple of hours and still ended up with 17 inches. I often wonder how much we'd have gotten if it would have stayed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 During the Blizzard of 93 in Bethlehem PA we flipped to heavy sleet for 6 hours, then flipped back to heavy snow for a couple of hours and still ended up with 17 inches. I often wonder how much we'd have gotten if it would have stayed all snow.You probably lost 6 to 10 inches of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any chance we flip back tonight during waking hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, medmax said: Any chance we flip back tonight during waking hours? Midnight on the HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any chance we flip back tonight during waking hours?*shudders as wind-driven pingers hit the window* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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