BGM Blizzard Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Bgm nws gonna be playing catch up all night. Latest update bringing 24+ totals into forecast around ny/pa state line. The meso band that's coming north from Williamsport vicinity looks like it means business. Will see what happens... Hopefully it's a tsunami of white rain! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 7 pm update: With the early evening update, we added Yates county to the winter storm warning based on reports over 2 inches as of the update time and the latest mesoscale models which are inching north with the higher snowfall totals. The prospects of an intense band are increasing for later this evening into the overnight. Incorporated the latest NAM guidance which keeps the best FGEN forcing just north of Scranton from Wyoming county eastward to central Wayne county. Snowfall rates suggested by the FGEN along with model QPF and snow ratios suggest snowfall rates of 3 inches or so setting up over these locations. The latest 22Z HRRR has this band located farther to the north into the Southern Tier of NY so it is an evolving setup for later tonight. Snowfall totals over two feet are likely to occur where this intense snow band is located. We now show that stripe in the latest snowfall map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Fighting some dry air getting injected from the NW. Hope to see rates pick up a bit later. As we’ve all said, it’s going to be a sharp cutoff. Syracuse looking good. Rochester is on the line.... Maybe 1-1.5" here in SE Monroe County. But it's been snowing since mid-afternoon. These rates aren't going to cut it, and radar doesn't show much indication of that picking up. Seems to be pivoting around us. We need to get into those "green" returns to start piling up. Not sure that's in the cards. This is basically what I anticipated when I predicted only 2-3" or so in ROC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah the sleet has been steadily pushing north.. Aw, man. I grew up in Lancaster county, PA. Sleet capital of the nation. Sleet during the Blizzard of 93...even had some sleet mix in during the Blizzard of 96. I think that warm air rushes up over the Chesepeake and just screws it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 They’re getting crushed pretty good in Ithaca. Here’s a good webcam on the Cornell campus. https://www.cornell.edu/live-view/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Dry air keeps eating away at the snow.. I'm not sure how far north these heavier radar returns can make it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Despite radar not looking great still snowing good in roc. Just was outside about 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Dry air keeps eating away at the snow.. I'm not sure how far north these heavier radar returns can make it.. I have been watching the Nexrad radar on the COD site. I can see how the heavier bands moving up from the south keep forcing their way through the dry air. One band moves through...dry air pushes south...another band moves through...repeat. Just give it up already, dry air! It's been snowing at a nice, moderate rate here for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 HRRRRRRRRR keeps ticking NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, tim123 said: 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Dry air keeps eating away at the snow.. I'm not sure how far north these heavier radar returns can make it.. These two are in complete contradiction. Radar like that is never going to produce the needed 0.5"/hr rates to get ROC into the 5-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: These two are in complete contradiction. Radar like that is never going to produce the needed 0.5"/hr rates to get ROC into the 5-6" range. We're not there yet. It's still developing. We need to watch the radar a few hours from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: They’re getting crushed pretty good in Ithaca. Here’s a good webcam on the Cornell campus. https://www.cornell.edu/live-view/ Intensity has picked up some, but nothing too crazy yet. Passed 3" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just started snowing not long ago here in N lewis.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We're not there yet. It's still developing. We need to watch the radar a few hours from now. That's the hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: These two are in complete contradiction. Radar like that is never going to produce the needed 0.5"/hr rates to get ROC into the 5-6" range. When that wind backs to NE the lake will help seed. Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 .3" so far. Pixel dust snow falling, my call of 1-2" sounds about right still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Can anyone tell when the snow started falling here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Here in Caledonia basically not snowing any longer. Probably an inch or so is all. I will find it hard to believe if I wake up and there is any big change to what I see on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Jeb Walk with a Prison City IPA time! Coming down in Skaneateles! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I know it’s Kuchera but 0z HRRRRRRRR says fun night ahead!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: I know it’s Kuchera but 0z HRRRRRRRR says fun night ahead!! This may be one of the times Kuchera might be almost applicable given the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The totals the short term models are spitting out for The Albany/Binghamton area are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4.5" so far. Probably close to 2"/hr rate attm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Radar starting to blossom in Western ny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Over performing storms are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 From flurries to light snow here finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Taking this one in a little west of Albany tonight and tomorrow. 15 degrees and still just cloudy with the occasional errant snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Over performing storms are the best! Well it still has to verify lol But I'm with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Moisture looks to be winning the battle with the dry air at the moment. Secondary is definitely beginning to take over with radar filling in over many areas here and down in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I cleared .8” off the snowboard at 7pm. I’ll probably let it run 12 hours and check again at 7am fun fact - on my way into the backyard I slipped on frozen ground and busted my ass so bad. It was like a cartoon fall. It’s a shame no one was there to laugh at me. I haven’t gone down like that in a long time. Right on par with the airport..0.7" as of 7pm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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