CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 This things coming straight North and even Montreal gonna see snow out of this Monster, Trust me!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 12z6z It’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore Definitely - the models are starting to align their inits with reality (radar trends, upper and mid levels), which seem further west to me. I think the RAP has the best handle on the current initialization. The sooner we can moisten this dry air, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 12z6z It’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore There will definitely be enhancement on south shore, likely adds another 1-3" on top of the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's not really"halting" , you are just going to see green turn into blues lol Well at least for here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 DP up to 7 here, same as ksyr for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Is it time for some final calls?! Buf - 1" Roc - 2" Syr - 5" Bing - 16" Alb - 14" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Is it time for some final calls?! Buf - 1" Roc - 2" Syr - 5" Bing - 16" Alb - 14" Buf - 3 Roc - 5 Syr - 7 Bing - 18 Alb - 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Cams for us that will be watching from afar lol https://511ny.org/#:Alerts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Buf - 3 Roc - 5 Syr - 7 Bing - 18 Alb - 17 BUF- 1 Roc- 4 Syr -8 Bing- 12 Alb- 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Buf - 2 Roc - 4 Syr - 6 Bgm - 18 Alb - 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Albany always snow holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: BUF- 1 Roc- 4 Syr -8 Bing- 12 Alb- 5 BUF- 2" Roc- 5" Syr- 6" Bing-15" Alb- 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Albany always snow holes. Downsloping off the Berkshires? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Albany always snow holes. Yeah, its a brutal place for snow lovers but this storm track seems a little more favorable and juiced up. Hopefully they do well. I always feel bad for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS even a lot better here. 0.75" to 1.25". I'll take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, its a brutal place for snow lovers but this storm track seems a little more favorable and juiced up. Hopefully they do well. I always feel bad for them. They have gotten some 2 footers but they’ve also underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 A lot of 1” at KBUF I’m curious with a .2” to .3” of liquid how that’s going to happen, negative nancies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: A lot of 1” at KBUF I’m curious with a .2” to .3” of liquid how that’s going to happen, negative nancies! Because I don't believe you're getting .2 or .3 of liquid equivalent, lol. I also should have bumped ROC to 3", but I guess I need to be consistent with my pessimism on this event...bah humbug. I wish I didnt have to be like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: A lot of 1” at KBUF I’m curious with a .2” to .3” of liquid how that’s going to happen, negative nancies! Someone has to get screwed. I go low for BUF to make me seem reasonable then go high for rochester because you know... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: They have gotten some 2 footers but they’ve also underperformed. Way more misses than hits over the years, but you are right...when things line up, they do get the occasional whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jmister said: Since it's crunch time and we're using a lot of insight from the HRRR, my tool may come in handy to determine radar hallucination from reality: And a quantitative difference: I have this updating every 15 minutes at jmmweather.com/hrrr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 You can see the fighting of dry air in Oswego county lol Eventually it will make it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You can see the fighting of dry air in Oswego county lol Eventually it will make it.. Mixing all the way to northern Connecticut. It’s unbelievable this can’t plaster us. Screw that dry air! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Downsloping off the Berkshires? After living in the area for about 20 years, I have been surprised at how little this happens. It takes a very strong and persistent east wind to downslope here in a nor'easter. The more typical spots for downsloping are a little east and northeast of ALB. Parts of eastern Rensselaer County as well as Washington County mostly (along with parts of Southern VT). Albany's average snow isn't too different than Worcester further east, despite being much lower in elevation. ALB's issues the past several years have had more to do with storm track than any kind of terrain issues. We definitely do better in the hills west of ALB (especially early and late season), but that goes for just about anyplace that has higher elevation areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Radar Simulation/quantitative difference This is really cool. Thanks for sharing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Winds are starting to back from SE to E here. I'd expect to see DPs rise quite a bit when that 'marine' air blows in. Get that WHEC 10 app updated Dave, should be able to catch when the lake starts to add to the party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You can see the fighting of dry air in Oswego county lol Eventually it will make it.. Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Because I don't believe you're getting .2 or .3 of liquid equivalent, lol. I also should have bumped ROC to 3", but I guess I need to be consistent with my pessimism on this event...bah humbug. I wish I didnt have to be like this. Your like this with every event, lol, but ur the voice of reason for us super weenies, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: Beautiful! HRRR makes no sense. There is heavy snow all the way down to Cincinnati still and filling in...the primary is stronger and will promote more snowfall than being predicted...I’m Thinksnow18 and I approve this message... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 You can see the fighting of dry air in Oswego county lol Eventually it will make it..If it makes it before the model has it getting here, then it's game on, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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