BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Right on that 2-3” cutoff for Buffalo. I’m a little NE of there so a little more comfortable I suppose, but the amounts still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Here she comes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Big difference: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Big difference: That high end has changed by about 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That high end has changed by about 2” Definitely upside potential acknowledged by NWS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think this has a larger chance for most of us, to over perform than under perform...based on what I think most people on this forum are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 That's a lot of moisture... 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I think this has a larger chance for most of us, to over perform than under perform...based on what I think most people on this forum are expecting. Agreed. The moisture with this system looks strong and west - to me at least. Nice slug move NE through central TN, KY, and OH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2hr pressure falls happening in a few areas. Along the coast, as expected, but also in WNY. Nice troughy-ness into WNY as well. Good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: That's a lot of moisture... Agreed. The moisture with this system looks strong and west - to me at least. Yes...see that too....but, dew points are low, and modeled pretty well. But, the primary seems a tad stronger... One thing to watch for I believe is along the East Coast.... If we can keep the convection down a bit from what is currently modeled, then there may be a chance for more moisture to get back in land further. Also, Keep an eye for where the 700 and 850 lows develop versus what various models depict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yes...see that too....but, dew points are low, and modeled pretty well. But, the primary seems a tad stronger... One thing to watch for I believe is along the East Coast.... If we can keep the convection down a bit from what is currently modeled, then there may be a chance for more moisture to get back in land further. Also, Keep an eye for where the 700 and 850 lows develop versus what various models depict. 700 is gonna be key. Need that mid level fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yes...see that too....but, dew points are low, and modeled pretty well. But, the primary seems a tad stronger... One thing to watch for I believe is along the East Coast.... If we can keep the convection down a bit from what is currently modeled, then there may be a chance for more moisture to get back in land further. Also, Keep an eye for where the 700 and 850 lows develop versus what various models depict. How about the current upper air look (300mb)? Seems to be multiple areas of divergence - pretty far west as well. Also the trough axis - how quickly it goes negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: How about the current upper air look (300mb)? Seems to be multiple areas of divergence - pretty far west as well. The primary is definitely under-modeled at this point. I can see at least 3 areas of divergence for certain and could argue 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The primary is definitely under-modeled at this point. I can see at least 3 areas of divergence for certain and could argue 4 or 5 In 4-6 hrs, the EMC RAP shows the 500mb trough tilt negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Noticed meso models give roc 6 to 8 inches with lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Noticed meso models give roc 6 to 8 inches with lake effect Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 All the 12z models came in a bit further SE. Not expecting more then 1-2" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Ne flow. Can't remember last time we had a 24 hour ne flow. May be in for a bit of surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Monroe Wayne should be in advisory i would think at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS Congrats Williamsport and Montoursville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS I do believe the global models are underestimating the lake enhancement off Ontario, in fact the NWS even mentioned it in their discussion. They didn’t give it an accumulation but did say the Niagara frontier tomorrow am would make travel aggravating...I think that meso model is on to it and I would include all of Orleans, Niagara and parts of northern Erie as well... think what It would look like at the opposite end of the lake and reverse it to this end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 In fact if you notice the 4.1” due east of Ontario? Swing that into the Niagara peninsula and the Niagara frontier because it’s not going to be an east wind. Forecast is for a NE wind so immediately that would make no sense. I agree someone along those 3 counties are going to see solid advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I do believe the global models are underestimating the lake enhancement off Ontario, in fact the NWS even mentioned it in their discussion. They didn’t give it an accumulation but did say the Niagara frontier tomorrow am would make travel aggravating...I think that meso model is on to it and I would include all of Orleans, Niagara and parts of northern Erie as well... think what It would look like at the opposite end of the lake and reverse it to this end. 12z HRDPS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, 96blizz said: 12z HRDPS agrees. Hi res RGEM is a monster hit here. Hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Current radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 12z6z It’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Ok I wanna see that area of enhanced precip just stop just shy of the Thruway in NYS then I'll believe their totals for up this way otherwise I don't believe anything I'm seeing with regards to precip output and snow totals but that's just me! If it comes to a screeching halt just before the Thruway then I'll believe them so.....Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 12z6z It’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore That would place almost all of WNY in the advisory category Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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