powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’ll be interesting to see what you have OTG in the morning. Grass blades showing from sublimation? I'd imagine he saw at least 1.80" water... just incredible amounts of QPF given the model runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, KoalaBeer said: Sent from an old friend who moved up to Gilford. Wouldn’t want to be at the bottom when that snow slid off the roof. Out west you have people die in little mini avalanches every year that fall of there roof and bury them...I don’t recall seeing that on the news ever here though. I'm still in awe. Hopefully folks realize just how rare this is. That was a very high end event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Looks like Sanbornton NH avgs 71"/yr and they got 42.4" this storm.................. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'd imagine he saw at least 1.80" water... just incredible amounts of QPF given the model runs yesterday. 1.89” so over the coming days it’ll work its way down to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 41 minutes ago, wxsniss said: What an awesome storm... that WCB band through eastern MA 1-2am was one of the best I've seen in 25+ years in Boston Multiple different mechanisms on display (WCB, mid-level frontogenesis, CCB) more geographically disjointed than what I'm used to seeing This season already a great start with 2 over-performers (Oct 29, Dec 16), 1 big bust (Dec 5) Still don't understand why not a single model had any clue on that mid-level fronto being so far northwest, intense, and stationary... do we know if the track of the ULL was very different than progged? Haven't had time to go through guidance vs. mesoanalysis to understand what happened. The CMC was pretty darn close. Look at 12 Z yesterday. And look at the Kuchera numbers that were spit out: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020121612&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= It had the band just south of there for at least a few runs prior. ex: 0z on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Eckster.......lol 000 FXUS61 KGYX 172336 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 636 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move south and east of Nantucket this afternoon. High pressure returns for the end of the week into the weekend. A series of weak disturbances may bring scattered snow and rain showers to the area by Sunday through early next week along with moderating temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 630 PM Update...All warnings have been allowed to expire. Clearing is beginning to take place in the north, and will gradually work south. Some flurries will remain possible across southeastern NH this evening. Winds will also continue to gradually diminish. No significant changes to the going forecast. As far as late last night and today went...can you say frontogenesis and dendritic growth? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 1.89” so over the coming days it’ll work its way down to 10:1 Yeah snow likes to find 10:1 over time, but that has to be one of the more impressive positive busts of all time within that band. Put that in the scrolls. Modern models can still royally f*ck up at like 12 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, klw said: The CMC was pretty darn close. Look at 12 Z yesterday. And look at the Kuchera numbers that were spit out It had the band just south of there for at least a few runs prior. ex: 0z on the 16th But it's the GGEM. We all shovel a lot of GGEM snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Mesos seemed better with this one in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: But it's the GGEM. We all shovel a lot of GGEM snow. I know but this time it was actually right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 10.5". No complaints. More than frcst and super easy to snowblow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm still in awe. Hopefully folks realize just how rare this is. That was a very high end event. This was a one in 200 year kind of thing. Most of us don’t experience it. We had Nemo with 30-36” but it was long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, klw said: I know but this time it was actually right. Yeah it crushed it. Love the GGEM, always keeps the dreams alive. It was by far the most correct here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Arnold214 said: What would you have told me if I left my evening shift last night at midnight forecasting this... Bring ‘em up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Final of 21.7” The last 8.7” was 23:1, but storm total was 1.8”/hr and 17.5:1 average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 10.5". No complaints. More than frcst and super easy to snowblow First storm with the 5.5" of cement, I had changed the belt on the JD tractor which is like 6' long and goes thru a v pulley and a flat pulley, Only have changed it twice in 30 yrs, I go to snow blow the driveway, And instead of the auger spinning clockwise and throwing the snow up the chute, Its going counterclockwise and throwing it out the front like a broom sweeper, Got that changed on Saturday, Tonight, Get half the drive way done, And a spring breaks that runs the idler pulleys to keep the belt tight to the hydrostatic drive so now i have no forward or reverse and had to push the tractor back into the car port, SMFH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Final of 21.7” The last 8.7” was 23:1, but storm total was 1.8”/hr and 17.5:1 average.We were under death band for quite awhile. Somewhat surprised we didn't get more, but wow at the variability in totals even within same town. Raymond had as low as 8" and high as 13". Of course that pales in comparison to other towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Bring ‘em up? I think i remember you yesterday scoffing at those numbers being to high on the expected snow map.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 First storm with the 5.5" of cement, I had changed the belt on the JD tractor which is like 6' long and goes thru a v pulley and a flat pulley, Only have changed it twice in 30 yrs, I go to snow blow the driveway, And instead of the auger spinning clockwise and throwing the snow up the chute, Its going counterclockwise and throwing it out the front like a broom sweeper, Got that changed on Saturday, Tonight, Get half the drive way done, And a spring breaks that runs the idler pulleys to keep the belt tight to the hydrostatic drive so now i have no forward or reverse and had to push the tractor back into the car port, SMFH.Thats no good. Shovel the rest? Seems like things happen in threes. Whats next? I'm waiting for my deere tranny to snap. It's a sealed one and the driveway incline taxes the hell out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 I’m sure when this goes through some reanalysis and scrutiny, we’re going to find insane ML fronto numbers along with super deep DGZ column. We had a beast arctic high up there and this was slamming up right into it with extreme negative tilt aloft. So my guess is the models prob undersold the ML fronto...even though it was already really impressive on guidance. The super deep DGZ always helps too because you aren’t needing to be very precise with where the lift is to get the cross-hair sig. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Mesos seemed better with this one in general. Certainly pegged the sleet down here well. I dismissed them out of hand, but they were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 BOS final is 13.1. Ranked up there for December storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: First storm with the 5.5" of cement, I had changed the belt on the JD tractor which is like 6' long and goes thru a v pulley and a flat pulley, Only have changed it twice in 30 yrs, I go to snow blow the driveway, And instead of the auger spinning clockwise and throwing the snow up the chute, Its going counterclockwise and throwing it out the front like a broom sweeper, Got that changed on Saturday, Tonight, Get half the drive way done, And a spring breaks that runs the idler pulleys to keep the belt tight to the hydrostatic drive so now i have no forward or reverse and had to push the tractor back into the car port, SMFH. Thats no good. Shovel the rest? Seems like things happen in threes. Whats next? I'm waiting for my deere tranny to snap. It's a sealed one and the driveway incline taxes the hell out of it I'm getting to old for this crap, I will go to US AG and Turf in the morning and pick another one up and fix it, Luckily i had the biggest part of the middle done and the bottom of the driveway, My driveway is 150' long, Good thing it snapped at the top about 15' from where its parked................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Certainly pegged the sleet down here well. I dismissed them out of hand, but they were spot on. We posted to folks yesterday to not ignore the NAM. It and Reggie drove that midlevel warmth inland 25-30 miles run after run. When the NAM drills mid level warming north , I always take notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 DGZ from the ground to 18k pretty much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Pretty good OES down by Norwell and Hanover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We posted to folks yesterday to not ignore the NAM. It and Reggie drove that midlevel warmth inland 25-30 miles run after run. When the NAM drills mid level warming north , I always take notice Yeah, noted for sure for future reference. It was a very solid storm for sure, but a pity we dryslotted/sleeted for so much of the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/1217-major-winter-storm-verification.html My ranges were fine throughout central and eastern SNE, but in the lower half, so I probably should have used 10-16" and 8-12", instead of 12-18" and 10-16" in the northeast and central screw zones. I also didn't expect that primary deformation to maintain as well as did into VT and NH...no one did. It also set up about 35mi N of where I forecast it...which turned 3-6" of fluff forecast for Brian into 3 feet. Final Grade: B+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good OES down by Norwell and Hanover. Was just going to post nice mood snows here in Cohasset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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