Dec 16-17 obs/nowcast thread

[Fozz]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

March 01 I recorded an 11 per hour in Bethel Maine. Many derided me here as that being impossible, pretty much the same ones who saw it for themselves today.

11” per hour would be an inch every 6 minutes. I think it’s believable, especially since heavy thunderstorms can easily deliver the same rate of precip in the form of rain.

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice sunset. Unfortunately I had to take the pic through the screen before the sun went behind the ridge but still a nice sight. 

 

[bristolri_wx]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Those things should just be burned from the damn models. They are fooking ridiculous and lead to 99.99999% of the hype with winter weather. When you get a setup in which the snow ratios are likely to only be something like 7:1 everyone goes bonkers with the 10:1 maps b/c they "show a crushing". Then in the scenarios where the ratios will be significantly higher, everyone goes nuts over Kuchera b/c well it adjusts for ratios (I think). Model snow maps are good for the following;

1) Can be useful to sniff out areas which could be impacted by subsidence 

2) be a good indicator of what a "jackpot" total amount may be. This is similar to QPF maps during convection season. If there is a convective event and models (although with resolution becoming better this isn't that case as much anymore) are showing a widespread like 4''+ QPF...that doesn't necessarily mean there is going to be widespread inches, it just suggests that locally, someone could get 4'' of rain in a thunderstorm (at least that's how I interpret it) 

3) can assist big time with gradients (especially the northern cutoff)

4) structure of totals 

But all of these too can be derived by assessing all the data, however, with a combination of laziness and I'm sure time, its just easier to just throw up a model snow map and be like "oh look I'm getting 20''. 

Nothing should be burned in my opinion. It’s just computer guidance. It’s why humans still make “real” weather forecasts. Sure the snowfall and QPF  maps can be misleading but they are useful in making a forecast. All the different maps help you form a final forecast. This is why I have great respect for meteorologists who have gone through years of school and then have the historic knowledge on top when making forecasts. As hobbyists we screw up more because we don’t have the training and experience (though many here make excellent forecasts on a consistent basis).
 

Maybe I’m just jaded at this point because of geographic location, but busts are busts and you move on to the next event. Even when I’m stuck in a snow hole, I’m always more interested as to what’s caustic going it, than being angered or distressed by it.

8-12” in NYC isn’t bad this time of year. They should have gone with that from the outset rather than the 12-18”. Many here were suspicious of high totals near the coastal areas, even down that way. Climo always plays a role!

[CoastalWx]

I'm still dumbfounded lol. That band.

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting a quick sunset now as the flurries have ended. What a site. 

Im guessing about 14” is our final when I check it out officially. 

Funny how 14 inches sounds so paltry when it’s an incredibly good storm in mid December. But when a mesoband is giving people 40 inches, anything else feels insignificant. Lol

But what a great storm. Had some amazing rates last night and the snow has some meat to it. It’s not 20 to 1 blower. Prob like 12 to 1 or something. 

Was looking for your report. Glad you did well. The huge totals from this were just whacky luck of the draw stuff. You got your meat and potatoes still.  

[Arnold214]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Elster, how much?

16.8

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Nothing should be burned in my opinion. It’s just computer guidance. It’s why humans still make “real” weather forecasts. Sure the snowfall and QPF  maps can be misleading but they are useful in making a forecast. All the different maps help you form a final forecast. This is why I have great respect for meteorologists who have gone through years of school and then have the historic knowledge on top when making forecasts. As hobbyists we screw up more because we don’t have the training and experience (though many here make excellent forecasts on a consistent basis).
 

Maybe I’m just jaded at this point because of geographic location, but busts are busts and you move on to the next event. Even when I’m stuck in a snow hole, I’m always more interested as to what’s caustic going it, than being angered or distressed by it.

8-12” in NYC isn’t bad this time of year. They should have gone with that from the outset rather than the 12-18”. Many here were suspicious of high totals near the coastal areas, even down that way. Climo always plays a role!

I agree with your post and loved how you laid it out, however, the problem is most don't use them for the reasons you mentioned above. What they're doing (IMO) is just leading to lazy forecasts and hype (now of course not everyone does this)...especially the younger crowd. At school when there was a winter storm thereat, the first maps that would be pulled up were snow maps...it was just looking at the snow map output from each model and geeking out. But in reality, if the time is spent assessing all variables and data you're going to outperform those maps and be more accurate. It's just like any type of forecasting...anyone can easily just copy and rip and read MOS and probably be fairly accurate, but actually taking the time to assess everything, use knowledge of climo and historical info, you'll beat MOS just about every time. 

[Arnold214]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still dumbfounded lol. That band.

What would you have told me if I left my evening shift last night at midnight forecasting this...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Arnold214 said:

What would you have told me if I left my evening shift last night at midnight forecasting this...

I would have asked how many DIPAs you had. 

[Patfan1987]

Things wrapping up in Lowell, took a few yard measurements and I'm averaging 12.5", I'm hearing unofficial reports of Thornton at 15" and still lightly snowing.

Unreal. I’m in tyngsboro and measured seven.

[BombsAway1288]

14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

 

You’re right outside my office lol. Great place for plane spotting too!

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

What would you have told me if I left my evening shift last night at midnight forecasting this...

I would tell you to stop smoking crack, meth, and shooting heroin during your shift

[78Blizzard]

Just finished snow blowing our big driveway here.  Took over 1 1/2 hours.  Based on measurements at storm end, we ended up with 14-15 inches.  Could have been some compaction.  Still, a nice mid Dec event here.  Nice breaking clouds now and blue sky showing.

 

Based on forecasts, this should stick around for a white Christmas.

[Arnold214]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still dumbfounded lol. That band.

I'm sitting here at work just laughing.

[Greg]

Good storm. 12-16" for the Boston area is a good December northeaster in any book.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

You’re right outside my office lol. Great place for plane spotting too!

I'm down there all the time. If a big ship is in, or I feel like plane spotting. It's also one of the best places to have a quiet lunch in your car! I go to that sub shop scolas sometimes too. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

I'm sitting here at work just laughing.

The fact that multiple states exceeded 36” is pretty wild... PA/NY/VT/NH (not sure what max in ME was).  With numerous 40”+ amounts legitimately reported is crazy.  Not slant sticking but 40” on the ground with photos.

Cant wait for the write ups on this one by the NWS offices.

[Spaizzo]

We ended up near 10-12 down here in Ansonia.. here is the time lapse not as fun as 36” you’ll see a brief change over 

 

[weathafella]

54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If so, that is only the 4th time it has happened

 

Boston 12.5"    BDL and PVD still ???

ORH 12.2

BOS 12.9 as of 1PM.  May go over 13 with the light snow of the afternoon.

Final shoveling done and  measurement taken:  14.1 is my final and im quite pleased.

[KoalaBeer]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still dumbfounded lol. That band.

I’ve been looking around on social media of photos in that area. It’s just insane. Looks like those photos I see of those high alpine ski towns in the alps of Europe that are just buried. Okemo seems like they got 40+...to bad Vail had to buy them looks like they are doing a terrible job of opening up terrain. 

 

[BombsAway1288]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm down there all the time. If a big ship is in, or I feel like plane spotting. It's also one of the best places to have a quiet lunch in your car! I go to that sub shop scolas sometimes too. 

Scola’s is amazing! Let me know next time you’re down here and we’ll grab a bite to eat there.  Office is on the port terminal side sadly but awesome views when an MSC ship comes in.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I had to go to the post office with some work stuff and pretty impressive driving around town. Big plow piles and most streets are still packed powder.

[Heisy]

I’ve been out of loop. If you had told me Concord (the place I chased the early December storm) was going to almost double me down in Lewisburg pa last night I would have laughed at you. That is incredible! 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

HRRR 20z run brings another 4" to the Cape tonight through tomorrow!

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

WE have changed back to all snow now with a temp near 32F

[dendrite]

Still cleaning up here, but the Ariens is a beast. I raised the blower about an inch up with my Armorskids and just plowed through. The snow was about 10” above the top of it, but I did one pass slow and let it cave in and then cleaned it up a 2nd time through at a higher speed. The chicken coop and run was back breaking though. Next up is cleaning off the vehicles.

[dryslot]

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

I’ve been looking around on social media of photos in that area. It’s just insane. Looks like those photos I see of those high alpine ski towns in the alps of Europe that are just buried. Okemo seems like they got 40+...to bad Vail had to buy them looks like they are doing a terrible job of opening up terrain. 

 

To be fair, I chatted with some colleagues in Operations down there and they could only get 1 lift running today due to the intensity of the snowfall.  Chairs were getting stuck elsewhere around bullwheels and it sounded like a complete cluster.  I mean it snowed 40+ inches in like 10 hours.  I don’t think we would’ve been any better at Stowe, that’s just a crippling snowfall, ski area or not.  Especially when most of your employees can’t get there because it’s snowing 8” an hour at 6-8am.

[powderfreak]

More Okemo area band photos.

[radarman]

Insanity.  Does Okemo allow big mountain snowmobiles?  I mean I don't know what else you could do with all that over there.