Dec 16-17 obs/nowcast thread

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

did you even score a flake?

3” up here.  Those are the 7am Cocorahs numbers.

At least got the grass covered again lol.  

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

This is bananas even as the radar is petering out.

Work asked for an update on rates (they issued a SPS for heavy rates last hour based on my 3.9"/hr report). I knew it was snowing hard, but I picked up an additional 4.8" in the last hour. 8.7" since 1 pm.

Storm total 21.7". Dumbfounded honestly.

Holy shit.  I thought it was done but you got 8.7” in two hours, ha!

[HoarfrostHubb]

11.5” final. That’s what I reported to BOX.  Good event.  Performed a little better than I thought here. 

[MJO812]

Final total of 10. 5 inches in Central  Park.

Not too bad at all

[wx2fish]

My uncle in Andover, NH measured a new 35" depth

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The track of H7 low always scared me but I felt that there was enough of a signal to swing the CCB through more of CT and pivot through but that didn't entirely happen. I actually should have stuck with my second update instead of doing 3rd update...I always do that too myself lol

Obv for me this is just a hobby so nobody cares except my 8 family and friends I send out emails too lol, but same thing...too many tweaks sometimes with knee jerk reactions up close. I had 8-12” for sne with 12-16” max zones for like 4 days, shouldn’t have changed it. 

Still a good forecast. It was a cool storm if one didn’t go to bed at 8pm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

11.5” final. That’s what I reported to BOX.  Good event.  Performed a little better than I thought here. 

12-16” was not too bad ey?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Final total of 10. 5 inches in Central  Park.

Not too bad at all

Pretty good for mid Dec. Now the depression sets in...what’s next to track because my dopamine levels are low. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Highly rated.   Then again I can shovel for you and have all of your neighbors give you dirty looks all winter...

My man

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy shit.  I thought it was done but you got 8.7” in two hours, ha!

It's pretty amazing. Since the first flakes tripped the ASOS at PWM at 4:20 I've averaged 1.8"/hr. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty good for mid Dec. Now the depression sets in...what’s next to track because my dopamine levels are low. 

I got around 7 which isn't bad considering I'm near the water.

[Torch Tiger]

9.5"

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The track of H7 low always scared me but I felt that there was enough of a signal to swing the CCB through more of CT and pivot through but that didn't entirely happen. I actually should have stuck with my second update instead of doing 3rd update...I always do that too myself lol

That is what screwed the weenies in NYC.  H7 was right on top of the city. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

12-16” was not too bad ey?

I was thinking 6-9" then upped it to 9-12" last minute... I waffled some.   Ray was close far out...

[bobbutts]

I am loving the powered chute on my Craftsman snow thrower.  I thought it was a frivilous feature when I was shopping but it is really nice to have.  I think brand matters less than getting the largest machine possible.  My old smaller one was trash and this largest one they had is great.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

That is what screwed the weenies in NYC.  H7 was right on top of the city. 

This was very reminiscent of Mar 17.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Obv for me this is just a hobby so nobody cares except my 8 family and friends I send out emails too lol, but same thing...too many tweaks sometimes with knee jerk reactions up close. I had 8-12” for sne with 12-16” max zones for like 4 days, shouldn’t have changed it. 

Still a good forecast. It was a cool storm if one didn’t go to bed at 8pm.

That was a great call. All in all I think this storm was well forecast so many days out. This really lived up to it's potential...it was a sizable storm from northern New England down into parts of the mid-Atlantic. Sure there will surprises (always will be) but given the news attention this had been getting everything played out beautifully. Moving forward I want to incorporate more cross-sectional analysis like dendrite suggested. I just look at H7 (fronto, VV) and always use that to dictate banding and where it occurs but that's not always the best level (as we know from this event). 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I ended up with 5.0 of snow before the changeover occurred around 2:30 am EST (Harwich, MA).  Temp was 32F.  Snowed moderately for a few hours!  It was awesome to see 5.0" of snow once again, surpassed any storm of the last three years!

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That is what screwed the weenies in NYC.  H7 was right on top of the city. 

never a good sign if forecasting or hoping for higher end snow totals.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

You know, just the other day I was wondering about the highest snowfall rate ever recorded. Whatever it is, I'm sure Okemo and dendrite came close.

Is a foot per hour even possible? I can only imagine what it would look like.

March 01 I recorded an 11 per hour in Bethel Maine. Many derided me here as that being impossible, pretty much the same ones who saw it for themselves today.

[HoarfrostHubb]

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah my new cub cadet made quick work of the snow, including plow piles where I put my trash bins. I’m happy with it so far. 
 

The one I had was a craftsman my dad bought when I was like 7 years old... so 19 years ago. Pretty rugged machine but it’s leaking fuel, and all the metal on it is pretty corroded. Not worth putting money into a machine that old.

My favorite feature about the one I just bought is dual LED headlights. The old one didn’t have those and it could be a pain in the ass.

Yeah... my Crapsman must be getting close to that age.  It has had a few issues in the past.  Headlamp is dead. Mice had built nests in the transmission a couple of times.  It has screws missing in spots.  Still runs ok but getting past its prime which wasn't great to start.    I hope you get 20 years out of that

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

that 15" in FIT is questionable......

Yeah... a spotter there I know who I think over inflates only got 12.5 or something...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This was very reminiscent of Mar 17.

My friend who lives in Albany said I was going to see a huge snowstorm because the confluence was going to shunt the storm to the south. 

He didnt think this storm was going to crush him. I dont think anyone did to be honest. 

The confluence weaken by the time the storm hit. I'm still amazed how parts of PA and upstate NY got all that snow with a weak storm.

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

never a good sign if forecasting or hoping for higher end snow totals.

The stupid snow maps burned all of us here like it burned sne last week.

A good call was 6 -12 for NYC considering the warm tongue  .

Upton had 12-18 inches but then dropped it to 8-12 inches.

Here are the final totals

Final:

 

NYC: 10.5”

LGA: 10.1”

JFK: 7.2”

EWR:  11.4”

ISP: 7.4”

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My friend who lives in Albany said I was going to see a huge snowstorm because the confluence was going to shunt the storm to the south. 

He didnt think this storm was going to crush him. I dont think anyone did to be honest. 

The confluence weaken by the time the storm hit. I'm still amazed how parts of PA and upstate NY got all that snow with a weak storm.

 

Weak as in mb? Lol I mean so was 96. Read up on somethings.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weak as in mb? Lol I mean so was 96. Read up on somethings.

High ratio snowstorms are the best

I think it's time to get out of the city 

[MaineJayhawk]

16" in North Waterboro.

Rogue is buried

[HoarfrostHubb]

How many of the SNE climo sites hit 12"?

[OceanStWx]

My kid doesn’t know what hit him. He went down for a nap with a foot and wakes up closing in on two.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid snow maps burned all of us here like it burned sne last week.

A good call was 6 -12 for NYC considering the warm tongue  .

Upton had 12-18 inches but then dropped it to 8-12 inches.

Here are the final totals

Final:

 

NYC: 10.5”

LGA: 10.1”

JFK: 7.2”

EWR:  11.4”

ISP: 7.4”

Those things should just be burned from the damn models. They are fooking ridiculous and lead to 99.99999% of the hype with winter weather. When you get a setup in which the snow ratios are likely to only be something like 7:1 everyone goes bonkers with the 10:1 maps b/c they "show a crushing". Then in the scenarios where the ratios will be significantly higher, everyone goes nuts over Kuchera b/c well it adjusts for ratios (I think). Model snow maps are good for the following;

1) Can be useful to sniff out areas which could be impacted by subsidence 

2) be a good indicator of what a "jackpot" total amount may be. This is similar to QPF maps during convection season. If there is a convective event and models (although with resolution becoming better this isn't that case as much anymore) are showing a widespread like 4''+ QPF...that doesn't necessarily mean there is going to be widespread inches, it just suggests that locally, someone could get 4'' of rain in a thunderstorm (at least that's how I interpret it) 

3) can assist big time with gradients (especially the northern cutoff)

4) structure of totals 

But all of these too can be derived by assessing all the data, however, with a combination of laziness and I'm sure time, its just easier to just throw up a model snow map and be like "oh look I'm getting 20''.