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Dec 16-17 obs/nowcast thread


ORH_wxman
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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Serious arctic airmass..no joke this time. Unlike 10 days ago when we were hoping for the storm to make its own cold air.
 

We primed. 

This is a terrible track for most storms in SNE unless you have an arctic airmass with a 1040H just to our north. If not this would have been a rainer, or a a quick burst of snow--->rain scenario.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... looks like there's some question as to cold air supply in this - seems at 20/6 as an average BL precondition from EWR to BOS... we're in trouble -

Suns out!! Its going to warm the ground and the strong sun this time of year will kill any accumulation  chances :( 

 

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21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Suns out!! Its going to warm the ground and the strong sun this time of year will kill any accumulation  chances :( 

 

it wouldn't shock me if even down there in interior/S NJ they have to go over to an advisory ... I bet they bullet nuggets in sideways rattle in undercutting cold bust - this high just can't be more instructively placed for dictating model error - ...

look at Will's obs up there and it's cold in place, and integrated into back-built air mass that is endlessly supplying - when any pressure falls start occurring the coastal barrier jet will only intensify and bust everyone cold that is already in it -

You're talking 12 F DP at TTN ...and it's only colder and deeper in the supply region... and judging by those wind flags, the llv barrier flow has already set up anyway - 

Probably a good time to point out that the lower 100 mb of the atmosphere is very difficult to resolve for even SREF meshing...

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