December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

[Rittenhouse]

Winds picking up: LGA reporting sustained winds of 28 mph, gusting to 35 mph. 

[dave0176]

To my surprise even here in Port Reading were ripping and got 1.5 OTG

[wdrag]

Wantage Nj 0.d6"  small flake possibly ly 3/4 mi snow... 18.9F  might be my last ob for quite a while. 

[jm1220]

Solidly moderate snow now, just measured a little over 1".

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

To my surprise even here in Port Reading were ripping and got 1.5 OTG

It's fierce out around town. Just saw my first plow go by. Pickup truck version, not the big boys yet.

[RU848789]

Just got in from a wonderful Jebwalk with my wife, our son and his girlfriend.  As of 6 pm we have 2.25" OTG (was only about 1" at 5 pm, so it's coming down) and it's 25/23F.  Heavy snow right now with 1/4 mile visibiilty.  Gorgeous out there - don't forget to get out in this stuff - snow angel time soon, lol.  

[dmillz25]

Closing in on 2” now

[Fishmn]

24F snowing very hard. Less than 1/8mi visibility. 3" on the ground in western Hunterdon Co.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently 19.0° with moderate snow. Did not measure but looks to be at least 1/2".

[North and West]

21° @ MMU. Snowy and windy.

Nice!


.

[Pequest]

Steadily increasing snow since 2PM here in Warren County. Current temp of 21 degrees. 

[F5TornadoF5]

Moderate snow. Already some mini "drifts". ~1in

[cleetussnow]

Snowing moderate and seemingly increasing in intensity here in HPN.  Just shy of an inch ATM.  

[MJO812]

Banding coming into the NYC  area

 

[Intensewind002]

Moderate snow and breezy in Lindenhurst, picked up about 1.5" so far and temp is holding steady at 29. Highest wind gust I've recorded is 27 mph.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Ripping on the uws definitely legit snow+

[Maureen]

Pretty steady here in Carteret. 
 

[snywx]

18° w/ moderate snow 

1.4" otg 

[MJO812]

I haven't seen it snow this hard with gusty winds in years.

Beautiful outside

 Upton

.HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...PASSAIC...
UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...QUEENS...RICHMOND...BRONX...KINGS...
ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...SUFFOLK...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND
NASSAU COUNTIES...

Heavy snow will develop over the area through 7pm. Snowfall rates of
1 to possibly two inches per hour are likely to develop.

[Snowlover11]

starting to rip here in westchester. main roads are becoming snow covered after even with all the salt they put down.

[wdrag]

Baseline on power outages at 6P. Let's see where this goes.   Numerous 40-45kt gusts NJ coast now.  Sea Girt in Monmouth county is the rough break point between 40F NJ coast and 32 just north.  Wow!

[SI Mailman]

Just got home from work.  Roads are bad.  Someone ended up in the ditch at the Korean/West Shore split coming off of the Outerbridge Crossing.   

[bluewave]

Heaviest snow of the event so far in SW Suffolk. Estimated visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile.

[wdrag]

Dont like the HRRR... it's verifying. sleet seems to be advantageous ing northward fast in se PA.  Amounts we see on the ranges...my guess is the low end of those are the more likely. I hope I dont hear ticking  before 11PM here in extreme nw NJ. 

[snowman19]

Heavy snow and windy up in Sloatsburg. Haven’t seen it come down this good since March, 2018. Probably close to an inch an hour right now 

[kat5hurricane]

Heavy snow and strong winds in Queens. One of the wildest rides from Manhattan that I've taken in years.

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I haven't seen it snow this hard with gusty winds in years.

Beautiful outside

 Upton

.HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...PASSAIC...
UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...QUEENS...RICHMOND...BRONX...KINGS...
ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...SUFFOLK...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND
NASSAU COUNTIES...

Heavy snow will develop over the area through 7pm. Snowfall rates of
1 to possibly two inches per hour are likely to develop.

since the 2016 blizzard  and this will be in the city the heaviest snowstorm since that blizzard..

[RU848789]

SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see...

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Evening Update...

The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet,
and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow
amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point
for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype
transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to
track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held
on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of
this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher
totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at
the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to
3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition,
which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of
snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have
been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy,
with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly
southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey.

In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show
the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should
lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or
precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts
of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow
rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain
in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the
forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of
snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the
north, but banding will produce local variations in totals.

Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around
band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas,
especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add
on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during
the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight
could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued
treacherous conditions into the morning.

No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping
up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to
bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to
the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier
precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate
coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible
in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total
QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit
higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry
slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas.
Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are
anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect,
and are covered in their respective sections below.

[gravitylover]

23/18/NNE 5-10/SN+

Yup it's wintry.

 

[MJO812]

My friend in central NJ has 5 inches