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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


wdrag
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10 minutes ago, rickymortyx said:

it sleeted for a few hours just west of the city. there was not a mention of sleet in the forecast, definitely hindered the snow results

Yes I’m well north of Central Park and sleet was predominant precip type from about 11-3 so while lack of qpf didn’t help the sleet also cut into totals a bit for many in the area. 

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8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Ah, yeah. 8” an hour at the absolute max happened there I think? I still remember hearing about the 12” in 90 minutes 

that storm had an eye like structure and so does this one now!  these abnormally warm SST we've had for a few years now must have something to do with all this.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just measured again, have a little under 8”. This little weenie band on 25A is close by, hopefully it can come through. 

Similar to my numbers, nice. East Northport trained spotter reported 8”. East Northport is the town next to mine so numbers are confirmed. 8” was the low end of our warning but it still verified the NWS forecast and snow continues. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Similar to my numbers, nice. East Northport trained spotter reported 8”. East Northport is the town next to mine so numbers are confirmed. 8” was the low end of our warning but it still verified the NWS forecast and snow continues. 

At this rate under this band, might add another inch. 

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41 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We got relatively screwed down here compared to our neighbors to the north then, ha 

 

Someone has got to do a study on that band. It’s not every day a band can thrive in perfect dynamics for 6+ hours in an event that wasn’t LES.

Yea I’m surprised only around a foot up there but the mega band must have stolen some of the HV snow. 

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A few thoughts:

- The models overestimated the front end because of the rapid advance of the dry slot, but they mostly underestimated the back end so total in the metro area largely met forecasts.

-The NAM was correct about the major warm punch at the upper levels but got trounced by the HRRR at the boundary level. 

- We were lucky to get anything with the system tracking the way it did, let alone 8-12 inches. The WAA event last December dropped a slushy inch in the city before switching quickly to sleet and rain due to the lack of an arctic high.

- The meso models didn't lock in on the I-88 corridor as the jackpot until under 24 hours before the onset of the storm, and before that they had been pretty consistent with a jackpot 50 miles south of there. Disappointing for many in the Hudson Valley, NNJ and NEPA.

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Just given the light nature of the snow considering the ~30" depth I'd confidently say there was 36" here. That weenie band set up shop(still at least an inch an hour) and just sat here. Wish I had a yard stick. Absolutely epic storm and I can only imagine what BGM looks like. Snow growth wasn't ideal until 2 am as well so could've been better.

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

A few thoughts:

- The models overestimated the front end because of the rapid advance of the dry slot, but they mostly underestimated the back end so total in the metro area largely met forecasts.

-The NAM was correct about the major warm punch at the upper levels but got trounced by the HRRR at the boundary level. 

- We were lucky to get anything with the system tracking the way it did, let alone 8-12 inches. The WAA event last December dropped a slushy inch in the city before switching quickly to sleet and rain due to the lack of an arctic high.

- The meso models didn't lock in on the I-88 corridor as the jackpot until under 24 hours before the onset of the storm, and before that they had been pretty consistent with a jackpot 50 miles south of there. Disappointing for many in the Hudson Valley, NNJ and NEPA.

That deformation band almost always gets further north than models show. The razor sharp northern cutoff also looks like it wasn’t quite the case, amounts dropped off more gradually. Huge surprise I’m sure to Albany and just north that weren’t even under watches 48 hours ago I believe. 

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Snow is done finally, cloud deck is thinning and the wind is over. Ended with about a foot, tough to measure when it goes from bare ground to 3' deep within just a few feet. Half of my front lawn still has grass showing and the other half goes up to 2' so, yeah... That warm layer made a mess, I would almost definitely have made it to 15+ without the weight and density of sleet and pellets compressing the pack. 

Good storm, I'll take 3 or 4 more just like it. See what ya can do about that would ya ;)

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That deformation band almost always gets further north than models show. The razor sharp northern cutoff also looks like it wasn’t quite the case, amounts dropped off more gradually. Huge surprise I’m sure to Albany and just north that weren’t even under watches 48 hours ago I believe. 

The confluence really weakened compared to what was modeled initially 

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34 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

Moderate snow falling now as band moves a bit southward. I think it could squeeze out another in or 2 if depending how long this lasts. 

wow it moved down here too and now we're getting higher snowfall rates again after the sun came out for awhile.  I heard this is a gravity wave

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