LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Light snow continues to fall, approaching 7.5’’. Band on immediate north shore of Nassau looks impressive, hardly moving sound effect, just like in Dec 1995 on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, rickymortyx said: it sleeted for a few hours just west of the city. there was not a mention of sleet in the forecast, definitely hindered the snow results Yes I’m well north of Central Park and sleet was predominant precip type from about 11-3 so while lack of qpf didn’t help the sleet also cut into totals a bit for many in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It definitely flipped to rain in most of LI and even parts of queens and Brooklyn overnight but it was pretty short lived yeah when it switched back to heavy snow and wind at 3:30 AM here in SW Long Island it was quite the event for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is the block led to the surface low taking a slightly faster east turn which led to areas down into NYC seeing more snow on the back side than expected looks like December 1995 was a nice analog for this storm especially in the local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Ah, yeah. 8” an hour at the absolute max happened there I think? I still remember hearing about the 12” in 90 minutes that storm had an eye like structure and so does this one now! these abnormally warm SST we've had for a few years now must have something to do with all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Heavy snow and windy in north Nassau county. Really surprised with this backend snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sound effect, just like in Dec 1995 on the back end Moderate snow falling now as band moves a bit southward. I think it could squeeze out another in or 2 if depending how long this lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: looks like December 1995 was a nice analog for this storm especially in the local area. Both storms occurred with pretty lousy Pacific patterns but this was much more close to a southwest flow type event than that was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just done clearing whatever I could (snowblower crapped out) piece of advice if you haven’t done it yet do it now. A slushy mess that is already freezing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: The observations I had read from up there definitely do back this up. Again, when do you ever see these almost illegal dynamics happen in a synoptic event? It’s rare but it’s happened a few times before. I believe Nemo had those rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Coming down moderate again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The sun is now breaking out in Larchmont, NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Just measured again, have a little under 8”. This little weenie band on 25A is close by, hopefully it can come through. Similar to my numbers, nice. East Northport trained spotter reported 8”. East Northport is the town next to mine so numbers are confirmed. 8” was the low end of our warning but it still verified the NWS forecast and snow continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psv88 said: Similar to my numbers, nice. East Northport trained spotter reported 8”. East Northport is the town next to mine so numbers are confirmed. 8” was the low end of our warning but it still verified the NWS forecast and snow continues. At this rate under this band, might add another inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Heavy snow, almost heaviest of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Heavy snow, almost heaviest of the storm. Agree with this statement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: We got relatively screwed down here compared to our neighbors to the north then, ha Someone has got to do a study on that band. It’s not every day a band can thrive in perfect dynamics for 6+ hours in an event that wasn’t LES. Yea I’m surprised only around a foot up there but the mega band must have stolen some of the HV snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: Agree with this statement Sun is peaking out now here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 A few thoughts: - The models overestimated the front end because of the rapid advance of the dry slot, but they mostly underestimated the back end so total in the metro area largely met forecasts. -The NAM was correct about the major warm punch at the upper levels but got trounced by the HRRR at the boundary level. - We were lucky to get anything with the system tracking the way it did, let alone 8-12 inches. The WAA event last December dropped a slushy inch in the city before switching quickly to sleet and rain due to the lack of an arctic high. - The meso models didn't lock in on the I-88 corridor as the jackpot until under 24 hours before the onset of the storm, and before that they had been pretty consistent with a jackpot 50 miles south of there. Disappointing for many in the Hudson Valley, NNJ and NEPA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just given the light nature of the snow considering the ~30" depth I'd confidently say there was 36" here. That weenie band set up shop(still at least an inch an hour) and just sat here. Wish I had a yard stick. Absolutely epic storm and I can only imagine what BGM looks like. Snow growth wasn't ideal until 2 am as well so could've been better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: A few thoughts: - The models overestimated the front end because of the rapid advance of the dry slot, but they mostly underestimated the back end so total in the metro area largely met forecasts. -The NAM was correct about the major warm punch at the upper levels but got trounced by the HRRR at the boundary level. - We were lucky to get anything with the system tracking the way it did, let alone 8-12 inches. The WAA event last December dropped a slushy inch in the city before switching quickly to sleet and rain due to the lack of an arctic high. - The meso models didn't lock in on the I-88 corridor as the jackpot until under 24 hours before the onset of the storm, and before that they had been pretty consistent with a jackpot 50 miles south of there. Disappointing for many in the Hudson Valley, NNJ and NEPA. That deformation band almost always gets further north than models show. The razor sharp northern cutoff also looks like it wasn’t quite the case, amounts dropped off more gradually. Huge surprise I’m sure to Albany and just north that weren’t even under watches 48 hours ago I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Snow is done finally, cloud deck is thinning and the wind is over. Ended with about a foot, tough to measure when it goes from bare ground to 3' deep within just a few feet. Half of my front lawn still has grass showing and the other half goes up to 2' so, yeah... That warm layer made a mess, I would almost definitely have made it to 15+ without the weight and density of sleet and pellets compressing the pack. Good storm, I'll take 3 or 4 more just like it. See what ya can do about that would ya 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 EWR 11" NYC 10" Official Latest Numbers (should be close, if not final) not too shabby for mid Dec... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That deformation band almost always gets further north than models show. The razor sharp northern cutoff also looks like it wasn’t quite the case, amounts dropped off more gradually. Huge surprise I’m sure to Albany and just north that weren’t even under watches 48 hours ago I believe. The confluence really weakened compared to what was modeled initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6-12 inches was a good call city wide Nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 6-12 inches was a good call city wide Nice storm Doubled to tripled totals from all of last winter in many areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Moderate snow falling now as band moves a bit southward. I think it could squeeze out another in or 2 if depending how long this lasts. wow it moved down here too and now we're getting higher snowfall rates again after the sun came out for awhile. I heard this is a gravity wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: At this rate under this band, might add another inch. it's made it down here too! nice big flakes coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10.7 is the final here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Wantage NJ at this location about 11.9 for a final. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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