December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Actually was more than I thought and I had some 2 foot drifts to blast through this morning near the front gate and car over here in Colonia. I was really surprised how much fell after it flipped back last night. Even had the minivan stuck for a bit. Best snow blower I tried this morning? The little electric toro, blasted through 12 in drifts like nothing.

I would do a commercial for the Toro. Excellent snowblower. Minimal maintenance

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This would probably be the only snow event other than March 1993 where Albany and Binghamton saw over 2 feet and NYC reported double digits as well 

Yea the backend I guess got at least some parts of the city to double digits.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, snywx said:

12" final here 

We got relatively screwed down here compared to our neighbors to the north then, ha 

 

Someone has got to do a study on that band. It’s not every day a band can thrive in perfect dynamics for 6+ hours in an event that wasn’t LES.

[terrapin8100]

Light snow in Ossining, 26°

12" storm total

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not under any radar returns and haven’t been for a while in northern Westchester but it’s been steady moderate snow for a long time.  Piling up nicely.  No official measure but I’m thinking 12-14 now in Yorktown. 

[Rittenhouse]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

A Binghamton to Albany jackpot will almost never be an all snow event at the coast. Lesson learned trust instincts not models, it’s a miracle due to the high in place the area saw barely any rain but the mid levels torched all the way to Southern Orange County. 

I don't think Central Park ever reported sleet. The totals were kept down in the NYC metro due to dry slotting, not mixing. The best bands set up to the north and west of the area.

This was clearly shown by the NAM before the storm.

 

[snywx]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

We got relatively screwed down here compared to our neighbors to the north then, ha 

 

Someone has got to do a study on that band. It’s not every day a band can thrive in perfect dynamics for 6+ hours in an event that wasn’t LES.

The I-88 corridor got crushed! Widespread 30-40"

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

We had 6.0" at 11 pm and then after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy.

Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had.

And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter although maybe it's not quite done there yet. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30").

Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once...

Looks like I was premature with this post, lol, as plenty of folks, at least in NENJ/NYC/LI etc. picked up 2-4" more snow - nice!  We got in on that action a bit with 1.25" more overnight to bring my total to 8.25", which is (barely) in line with my 8-12" prediction for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC.  I had cleared the board and shoveled and there was 1.25" or so in both locations, plus I woke up a few times and it was still snowing, including a really nice surprise 20 minute heavy band about an hour ago that probably put down 1/2" of that. Locally, Perth Amboy reported 9" and many other locations in Middlesex County reporting 7-9". Have even seen reports of 6-8" in northern Monmouth, which really overperformed.

As per posts on this board and elsewhere (not yet in the NWS PNS), Central Park up to 10", Newark Airport reporting 11", the Bronx with 12.6", Elizabeth with 9.1", LaGuardia with 9", JFK with 6.2" (close to the coast, so a lot more sleet) and Philly with a final tally of 6.6". I think we're going to see a lot more reports in the 8-12" range for Middlesex and NE NJ (Union/Hudson/Essex/Bergen/Passaic), given the snow that fell over night. So, when looking at the public reports from the NWS, they're likely incomplete if they were from before 1 am.  

Thought this was a cool graphic, below, showing the storm total precip - puts me in the 1.0-1.5" range, which makes sense, given the sleet for a few hours (lost 1-2" due to that - probably would've had 9-10" without the sleet). Look at the NJ coast - could've been a giant blizzard there with a track further offshore and a little more cold air.

 

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, patrick05 said:

You can use this and click the number of images on the bottom left of the page... 200 images should get you the entire loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad

It definitely flipped to rain in most of LI and even parts of queens and Brooklyn overnight but it was pretty short lived 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, snywx said:

The I-88 corridor got crushed! Widespread 30-40"

And the flakes weren’t even flying there until about the same time flakes began closer to where we are. Absolutely nutty. 

[rickymortyx]

On 12/16/2020 at 9:43 AM, Dark Star said:

Not too bullish, haven't seen significant pressure falls along Hatteras yet.  I would say 6-8" in central Union County NJ, unless the coastal low gets going FAST.

good call sir measured 6.8" this morning in Union surprised to see Newark almost got a foot must be their year

[snywx]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

And the flakes weren’t even flying there until about the same time flakes began closer to where we are. Absolutely nutty. 

I saw a few reports of 5-6" an hr rates for 3-4 hrs. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

have about 6-7" on the ground...had a last burst of snow a little while ago that was the heaviest I saw from this storm...My rain guage has 8.5" in it...can't wait to melt it...it was a wet snow for me...

Wasn't wet and heavy here Unc. Just across from Port Mobil on the Arthur Kill. Where are you, near the Great Kills to South Beach stretch? That really is by the bay; south shore of the bay i saw Cliffwood Beach in NJ had less than 2 inches; it's 30 mins south of here. Snow wasn't Colorado powdery but light enough to blast through with an electric snow blower. Even some of the large foot + drifts.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

I saw a few reports of 5-6" an hr rates for 3-4 hrs. 

The observations I had read from up there definitely do back this up. Again, when do you ever see these almost illegal dynamics happen in a synoptic event?   

[dWave]

3 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

I don't think Central Park ever reported sleet. The totals were kept down in the NYC metro due to dry slotting, not mixing. The best bands set up to the north and west of the area.

This was clearly shown by the NAM before the storm.

 

The ratios were pretty good too, alot of snow with temps well down in the 20s, at least for the Park and N&W from there.

[rickymortyx]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

Looks like most of Morris County NJ was spared major snowfall.  Some drifts here and there but it's not very deep.  There was high impact to yesterday's evening commute, but nothing significant after about 3 hours of moderate to heavy snow.

This seems like the kind of storm that would have been pretty well forecast locally in the years before model data overload. It was apparent that the mid and upper level synoptics were not ideal for snow as recently as Tuesday. Snowmap overload also doesn't help.

that last inch that we got overnight really saved us would have been a bust

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw:  I had remarked on banding qpf per multiple models n central PA to near ALB and mentioned 20-25" bullseyes in two states. The EC KUCHERA had 33" idea. 

I've added the northwest transition of the big band originally slated for I84 back to a IPT BGM ALB axis beginning the 00z/15 cycle. About 48 hours LT on a consideration that became much more emphatic with future model cycles. Here's 3 different model samples at various Lead times) (no UK added since the UK is referenced above), and finally the EC consideration on the 12th... too far south but it was this consistently modeled snow amount forecast that helped prompt my confidence for a top 20 event.

none of those are even close to the 40 inches NWS BGM has received, even using Kucera.

[rickymortyx]

8 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

I don't think Central Park ever reported sleet. The totals were kept down in the NYC metro due to dry slotting, not mixing. The best bands set up to the north and west of the area.

This was clearly shown by the NAM before the storm.

 

it sleeted for a few hours just west of the city. there was not a mention of sleet in the forecast, definitely hindered the snow results

[rickymortyx]

Just now, qg_omega said:

none of those are even close to the 40 inches NWS BGM has received, even using Kucera.

3k NAM looks closest to verifying, and also the GFS-Parallel run from a few days ago

[ILoveWinter]

Snowing heavily now in the UWS, impressive!

[jm1220]

Just measured again, have a little under 8”. This little weenie band on 25A is close by, hopefully it can come through. 

[F5TornadoF5]

Light snow continues to fall, approaching 7.5’’. Band on immediate north shore of Nassau looks impressive, hardly moving 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The observations I had read from up there definitely do back this up. Again, when do you ever see these almost illegal dynamics happen in a synoptic event?   

Feb 2013 that almost dumped 40 inches on eastern LI and CT

[doncat]

34 minutes ago, uncle W said:

have about 6-7" on the ground...had a last burst of snow a little while ago that was the heaviest I saw from this storm...My rain guage has 8.5" in it...can't wait to melt it...it was a wet snow for me...

8.5" total here with the 2.5" that fell overnight...Melted came in at 1.01".

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like I was premature with this post, lol, as plenty of folks, at least in NENJ/NYC/LI etc. picked up 2-4" more snow - nice!  We got in on that action a bit with 1.25" more overnight to bring my total to 8.25", which is (barely) in line with my 8-12" prediction for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC.  I had cleared the board and shoveled and there was 1.25" or so in both locations, plus I woke up a few times and it was still snowing, including a really nice surprise 20 minute heavy band about an hour ago that probably put down 1/2" of that. Locally, Perth Amboy reported 9" and many other locations in Middlesex County reporting 7-9". Have even seen reports of 6-8" in northern Monmouth, which really overperformed.

As per posts on this board and elsewhere (not yet in the NWS PNS), Central Park up to 10", Newark Airport reporting 11", the Bronx with 12.6", Elizabeth with 9.1", LaGuardia with 9", JFK with 6.2" (close to the coast, so a lot more sleet) and Philly with a final tally of 6.6". I think we're going to see a lot more reports in the 8-12" range for Middlesex and NE NJ (Union/Hudson/Essex/Bergen/Passaic), given the snow that fell over night. So, when looking at the public reports from the NWS, they're likely incomplete if they were from before 1 am.  

Thought this was a cool graphic, below, showing the storm total precip - puts me in the 1.0-1.5" range, which makes sense, given the sleet for a few hours (lost 1-2" due to that - probably would've had 9-10" without the sleet). Look at the NJ coast - could've been a giant blizzard there with a track further offshore and a little more cold air.

 

I think the JFK number will be between 7-8 inches we overperformed on the back end

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Feb 2013 that almost dumped 40 inches on eastern LI and CT

Ah, yeah. 8” an hour at the absolute max happened there I think? I still remember hearing about the 12” in 90 minutes 

[SnowGoose69]

My hunch is the block led to the surface low taking a slightly faster east turn which led to areas down into NYC seeing more snow on the back side than expected 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It definitely flipped to rain in most of LI and even parts of queens and Brooklyn overnight but it was pretty short lived 

yes and the mini blizzard at the back end for a few hours was quite the spectacle!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

My hunch is the block led to the surface low taking a slightly faster east turn which led to areas down into NYC seeing more snow on the back side than expected 

yes temps crashed to mid 20s before 4 am

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Ah, yeah. 8” an hour at the absolute max happened there I think? I still remember hearing about the 12” in 90 minutes 

Yeah two crazy things I remember....that Feb 2013 event and another event at ISLIP where they had like 13" of RAIN.