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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


wdrag
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Pretty clear the high end totals won't work out unless there's some miracle coming with the stuff in PA. The dryslot chopping up the precip after the initial surge is what killed things most of all. The snow/mix line was essentially stalled under the steady snow and then surged in once the lift/dynamics moved on. I'd be at 8-10" easy if not for that. My prediction of 6-9" (probably more like 6-7") for my area likely does it. Very nice event anyway. 

Ignore a lousy tracking and strong 700 low at your peril! Lol

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty clear the high end totals won't work out unless there's some miracle coming with the stuff in PA. The dryslot chopping up the precip after the initial surge is what killed things most of all. The snow/mix line was essentially stalled under the steady snow and then surged in once the lift/dynamics moved on. I'd be at 8-10" easy if not for that. My prediction of 6-9" (probably more like 6-7") for my area likely does it. Very nice event anyway. 

Ignore a lousy tracking and strong 700 low at your peril! Lol

850 mb low tracking se of us, this second heavy snow blob is in response to tightening 850 gradient. Its gona hit us harder than the first.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty clear the high end totals won't work out unless there's some miracle coming with the stuff in PA. The dryslot chopping up the precip after the initial surge is what killed things most of all. The snow/mix line was essentially stalled under the steady snow and then surged in once the lift/dynamics moved on. I'd be at 8-10" easy if not for that. My prediction of 6-9" (probably more like 6-7") for my area likely does it. Very nice event anyway. 

Ignore a lousy tracking and strong 700 low at your peril! Lol

6-7 is not a bad December event. We still have some time to tack on more. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty clear the high end totals won't work out unless there's some miracle coming with the stuff in PA. The dryslot chopping up the precip after the initial surge is what killed things most of all. The snow/mix line was essentially stalled under the steady snow and then surged in once the lift/dynamics moved on. I'd be at 8-10" easy if not for that. My prediction of 6-9" (probably more like 6-7") for my area likely does it. Very nice event anyway. 

Ignore a lousy tracking and strong 700 low at your peril! Lol

Considering the track , we got really lucky. 

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4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

This is why I was saying 4-8 inches the last couple of days. Mid level warning is almost always underdone by the models in these marginal events at the coast.

No complaints from me. It was a fun storm and it's not even officially winter yet.

Good call 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty clear the high end totals won't work out unless there's some miracle coming with the stuff in PA. The dryslot chopping up the precip after the initial surge is what killed things most of all. The snow/mix line was essentially stalled under the steady snow and then surged in once the lift/dynamics moved on. I'd be at 8-10" easy if not for that. My prediction of 6-9" (probably more like 6-7") for my area likely does it. Very nice event anyway. 

Ignore a lousy tracking and strong 700 low at your peril! Lol

Yes lesson learned if the low 

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19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly if the dry punch didn’t come 2 hours early would have probably had 2-4 inches more 

Warm nose usually under-modelled or over-ignored. Euro and NAM were showing or hinting at it in Mid Atl and coastal SNE /NY.  Usually keeps forecasts based on qpf panels busting year after year...

2" here N of Syracuse. Yawn.  We get that from a good hour from the lake. :)

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35 minutes ago, KeithB said:

Moderate to at times heavy snow and sleet mix going on in Rockland county right now. I cannot believe I am hearing intense pinging after they told me no way it mixes this far NW. Just shy of 7 inches right now.

You’re still getting snow? I’m all sleet no snow in Sloatsburg for close to an hour now. The mid-level warming has definitely taken over for now

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